Greek Olive Oil Forecast 2035 — A Sector Under Pressure
The European Commission’s EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–2035 offers a revealing picture of how olive oil production across Europe is expected to evolve over the next decade. For Greece, one of the EU’s most traditional and quality-driven producers, the Greek olive oil forecast 2035 points to a sector facing mounting structural and climate-related pressures.
A shifting EU olive oil landscape
At EU level, olive oil production is projected to remain broadly stable through 2035. This stability, however, will be driven primarily by Spain and Portugal, where large-scale investment in high-density, irrigated olive groves and advanced farming techniques is improving productivity and reducing volatility.
Spain’s olive oil production is forecast to approach 1.8 million tonnes annually, while Portugal’s output could reach around 200,000 tonnes per year by 2035. These gains underline a clear shift toward more capital-intensive and water-managed production models.
Greek olive oil: declining volumes ahead
By contrast, the Greek olive oil forecast 2035 suggests a gradual decline in domestic output. From approximately 250,000 tonnes in the 2024/25 season, Greek production could fall below 180,000 tonnes annually if current trends persist.
Key drivers behind this outlook include:
- Climate change and more frequent heatwaves
- Prolonged droughts and water scarcity
- Aging, largely rain-fed olive groves
- Limited adoption of modern cultivation systems
These factors are expected to reduce both cultivated area and average yields, increasing production uncertainty year after year.
Consumption and market dynamics
The outlook also highlights changes on the demand side. Per-capita olive oil consumption in Greece — traditionally among the highest globally — is projected to decline slightly by 2035. Persistently high prices and evolving dietary habits across the EU are influencing consumption patterns, adding further pressure to the market.
Meanwhile, Spain and Portugal are expected to strengthen their roles as net exporters, while countries with declining output, including Greece, may face higher reliance on imports to balance supply.
The strategic challenge ahead
Despite the difficult projections, the report also reinforces Greece’s key competitive advantage: quality. Greek olive oil’s strong geographic identity, premium characteristics, and PDO/PGI potential remain critical assets.
🔍 Key takeaway:
According to the Greek olive oil forecast 2035, the next decade will be decisive. Long-term sustainability will depend on climate adaptation, improved water management, modernization of groves, and a strategic shift toward branded, value-added olive oil rather than bulk exports.