Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of October 30, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 44

Makaria Terra

🇬🇷 Skala, Messinia, Greece · Est. 2014 · BIO Certified · Koroneiki · 40+ International Awards

Founded in 2014 by Evgenia Andriopoulou and Achilleas Mavranezoulis, Makaria Terra farms native Koroneiki groves next to Ancient Messini, in the village of Skala, about 20 km north of Kalamata. Its fully organic, traditional and non-intensive groves are exclusively rain-fed, with no irrigation and no chemical pesticides or herbicides. The oil has collected more than 40 awards at leading international competitions — including NYIOOC, Berlin, Olive Japan and Terraolivo golds — and is traded in the USA, Canada and Australia. Makaria Terra also packs in Bag-in-Box and Pouch-Up formats that protect the oil from light and oxidation. A timely profile as Messinia starts a harvest expected 40–50% larger than last year, and as new EU rules require monovarietal Koroneiki to name its variety on the label.

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Week 44 resumed the downward drift in the two largest export origins, while most of the rest of the basin went quiet. In Spain, every reference now sits just above €3/kg: Oleista's national EVOO average fell to €3.08/kg (W44, -2.1%), Poolred printed €3.07/kg for October 20–26 (virgin €2.93, lampante €2.79) and the Junta de Andalucía €3.09/kg for October 19–25; Infaoliva posted no quotation on October 28. According to Poolred, EVOO has lost 8.7% in a month and is at its lowest level in five years. The policy timetable is now fixed: Minister Planas confirmed that the 2026/27 marketing order will be published before October 31 and that the resolution on any withdrawal will come in the first week of November, while farm organisations are pressing for up to 20% of supply to be held back. Greece posted the largest fall of the week (€3.41/kg, W44, -3.4%), with old-crop Messinian oil at €3.00–€3.10/kg and Cretan producers protesting. Italy (€4.75/kg, W42) and Tunisia (€3.43/kg, W41) have no new national prints; Portugal updates to €3.50/kg (W42, +0.3%). Our read: Spain should trade in a €2.95–€3.20/kg range until the withdrawal resolution. Activation with a meaningful volume would support a move back toward €3.20–€3.40/kg; a resolution without activation, combined with the November surge in mill intake, would test €3.00/kg. Greek new-crop prices should converge on €3.80–€4.00/kg as Koroneiki volumes arrive.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of October 28, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 44, October 30, 2026.

Spain's national average falls to €3.08/kg (Oleista W44, -2.1% on our last print), within a €2.98–€3.17/kg range, with virgin oil at €2.95/kg and lampante at €2.80/kg. The other references confirm the move: Poolred's October 20–26 data put EVOO at €3.07/kg, virgin at €2.93/kg and lampante at €2.79/kg, on 52 operations and 3,639 t; for the 2025/26-crop oil traded on October 17–23 Poolred printed €3.06/kg; and the Junta de Andalucía observatory recorded €3.09/kg for October 19–25. Infaoliva posted no EVOO quotation on October 28. Poolred data show EVOO down 8.7% in a month, at its lowest level in five years. On October 26, Minister Luis Planas said the 2026/27 marketing order would be signed and published before the end of October and that the Directorate-General for Production and Markets would issue its resolution on any measures in the first week of November, after reviewing aforo, production and carry-in data. ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias are now asking for up to 20% of supply to be held temporarily off the market, citing availability above 2.17 Mt; COAG's ~188,700 t (11.78%) estimate remains the reference scenario. Under the activation criterion in the draft order, a withdrawal triggers when opening stocks plus estimated production reach 120% of the six-campaign average.

• The Decision Has a Date: Publication of the order by October 31 and a resolution in the first week of November put a clear end to the policy uncertainty — expect thin trading until then.
• References Converge Around €3.07–€3.09: Oleista, Poolred and the Junta are within two cents of each other; the €3.00/kg line is the level to watch.
• Next Data Points: The DG resolution, October AICA market data (mid-November) and the first mill-intake figures of the 2026/27 campaign.

Oleista's latest Portuguese update puts EVOO at €3.50/kg (W42, October 12, +0.3%) and virgin oil at €3.18/kg (-4.5%), leaving Portuguese EVOO €0.42/kg above Spain. The national market bulletin for October 12–18 remains the most recent official reading: it reported a €1.18/L weekly fall in the average price of packaged extra virgin, Spanish prices setting the tone, and strong pressure from low-priced Tunisian oil, with good oil quality in all regions. The harvest continues in Alentejo's intensive and super-intensive groves — Baixo Alentejo alone produces roughly 80% of Portuguese olive oil — while traditional Trás-os-Montes groves enter their picking window. INE continues to project about 175,000 t.

• Premium Over Spain Widens to €0.42/kg: With Spain sliding and Portugal flat, Portuguese bulk is harder to place outside origin-specific programmes.
• Virgin Oil Weakens First: The 4.5% fall in virgin oil suggests lower grades are absorbing the pressure from Tunisian and Spanish competition.

There is no new national print this week: Oleista and ISMEA hold Italy's EVOO average at €4.75/kg (third week of October, -48.0% YoY), with virgin oil at €3.00/kg and lampante at €2.71/kg. The market-level quotes published by ISMEA on October 21, covering October 12–19, show Apulia splitting in two: Brindisi, Lecce and Taranto at €4.00/kg, Bari at €4.30/kg and new-crop Foggia at €4.65/kg, while Palermo and Trapani hold at €6.70/kg, Pescara at €12.00/kg and new oil in Ragusa at €12.50/kg. Imported oil sets the ceiling: Andalusian EVOO delivered to warehouses in Imperia was quoted at €3.10/kg on October 16. Coldiretti estimates the production cost of quality EVOO at €5.50–€6.50/kg, and growers rallied again in Trani on October 21 over prices and unsold stocks. ICQRF data put Italian stocks at 195,044 t on September 30 (+46.7%), including 82,195 t of Italian-origin EVOO.

• €4.00 Is the New Southern Floor: Three Apulian piazze at €4.00/kg mark the lowest Italian EVOO quotes of the season so far.
• Italy–Spain Gap at €1.67/kg: The gap widens again as Spain slides; for origin-labelled programmes, southern Apulian lots offer the best value.

Oleista's fresh W44 reading puts Greek EVOO at €3.41/kg (-3.4%), with virgin oil at €2.80/kg and lampante at €2.35/kg. Regional reports show a widening spread: in Messinia, old-crop oil is offered at only €3.00–€3.10/kg with buyers showing little daily interest, while Cretan offers sit at €3.40–€3.80/kg and producers put current prices at €3.60–€4.00/kg. On October 23, Cretan growers called for guaranteed minimum prices covering production costs, with €5/kg for Cretan oil. The last new-crop benchmark is still the Agios Apostoloi cooperative's sale of 140 t at €4.10/kg (October 20), after €5.95/kg and €4.60/kg earlier in the month. The Messinian harvest was set to intensify from late October, with Koroneiki following the early Mavroelia, and the crop is seen 40–50% above last year. From October 24, a new EU delegated regulation lowers the total-sterols limit for monovarietal Koroneiki EVOO to 800 mg/kg and requires the variety to be named on labels and accompanying documents.

• Old Crop Under €3.50: The national average falls below €3.50/kg for the first time this autumn, as sellers clear old stock ahead of a larger harvest.
• Sterols Rule Helps Koroneiki: Authentic single-variety oils that previously failed the 1,000 mg/kg limit can now be sold as EVOO — but labels must state "Koroneiki".

Tunisia has no new Oleista reading: EVOO holds at €3.43/kg (W41, October 5), with lampante at €2.45/kg (October 11). The domestic picture is moving faster than export quotes. Dhaoui Midani, president of the farmers' union, estimates that 2026/27 production could fall by around 40% in the absence of consolidated official figures. First new oil is selling at 10–12 dinars per litre at some mills and up to 15 dinars at certain retail points; he expects the domestic market to settle near 12 dinars per litre, with downside risk linked to international prices. Tunisia keeps its 56,700 t duty-free EU quota amid political scrutiny in Italy, and Portugal's bulletin continues to cite low-priced Tunisian oil as a source of pressure on Iberian prices.

• A Smaller Crop Meets a Falling Market: A 40% production drop would normally firm prices, but Spain at €3.08/kg caps how far Tunisian new-crop offers can rise.
• Watch the First Export Offers: New-crop export quotes in November will show whether the domestic 10–12 TND/L level translates into firmer FOB prices.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update). The olive oil export season opens on Sunday, November 1, in a large "on" year — sector assessments cite 500,000–600,000 t — yet the industry is entering it without an export target. The Aegean exporters' association reports that January–September 2026 olive oil exports fell 53% in volume to 15,700 t and 48% in value to $82.1 million, while combined table olive and olive oil exports fell 28% to $273 million. At the Aydın Commodity Exchange, the 2025/26 average producer price for olive oil was 177.49 TL/kg, and the Gemlik Chamber of Agriculture puts the 2026 cost of producing olives at about 58 TL/kg. US-bound lots carry the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 duty, and the EU duty-free quota remains just 100 t.

Moroccan export offers hold at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Domestically, the season is starting well: milling in Moulay Yacoub and Taounate is producing new oil sold at 37–38 MAD per litre at the mill, against about 40 MAD in Fès, with olives trading at 3.5–5.5 MAD/kg depending on quality (October 29). That is consistent with professionals' expectations of 35–50 MAD per litre this season and with northern regions forecasting up to 80% more fruit. With Spain at €3.08/kg, Moroccan oil competes on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price, and US-bound lots carry the settled 12.5% Section 301 duty.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, with no new market quotes this week. The harvest is in full swing: Istrian yields are typically 10–14 litres of oil per 100 kg of olives after summer heat slowed ripening and raised costs, and organic Istrian producers are targeting €36–€40 per litre at retail. In Dalmatia, the Oblica variety is in its "on" year after last season's 38% shortfall, though some growers report yields below 10%. Processing at the Chiavalon mill in Vodnjan costs €0.37/kg of olives this season. Istria's Flos Olei standing and Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result (128 awards, 103 Gold) remain its strongest quality signals for autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest milling is under way in Italy, Greece, Croatia, Portugal and Spain's first "primer chorro" areas — the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. For Greek and Sicilian single-variety oils, this season's CoA should also include total sterols, now that the EU applies a specific limit to monovarietal Koroneiki and Nocellara del Belice. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of October 30, 2026.

Oleista shows no new Lebanese reading since October 13: EVOO holds at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain at €3.08/kg, the Lebanese premium widens to €3.04/kg — roughly double the Spanish price. The harvest in the south is severely disrupted: olive groves cover around 62,000 ha, nearly a quarter of Lebanon's farmland, and in Kfarshouba the municipality rejected conditions that would have allowed only 100 people and 25 vehicles to enter for a single day of picking, amid reports of uprooted trees. Supply from southern districts should be treated as at risk for 2026/27.

The West Bank harvest continues into November under the most difficult conditions in years. The UN's OCHA recorded at least 160 settler attacks linked to the harvest in the first two weeks of October, and the Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission counts at least 482 attacks across nine governorates during the month; at least four Palestinians have been killed this season. On October 26–27, Israel barred an international delegation of legislators who planned to join harvesters. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should keep shipment windows for 2026/27 lots flexible and expect smaller volumes from affected villages.

Algeria's harvest season is under way, with no new market data this week. Its exportable surplus remains constrained by export infrastructure and certification, and French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now fourteen weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

The harvest continues, with no new official data this week. The preliminary industry forecast still projects Syrian output rising from about 66,000 t to 191,000 t in 2026/27. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its final weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals, and NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere results continue to roll out through November. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spanish bulk at €3.08/kg and a global surplus forecast for 2026/27, Argentine bulk exporters face an even tougher price comparison in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro weakened again to A$1.5830 (ECB, October 28, from A$1.5980), making European oil about 0.9% cheaper for Australian importers on FX alone — and roughly 2.8% cheaper for Spanish EVOO once this week's price fall is included.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5% — relevant as Turkey's export season opens on November 1. The euro eased to $1.1133 (from $1.1205), so the dollar cost of Spanish EVOO is down ~2.5% on the week, combining the price fall and the softer euro. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest under way.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). Preliminary industry forecasts put 2026/27 world output at 3.50–3.65 Mt against consumption of ~3.25 Mt — a surplus year — with Spain at ~1.60 Mt (~46% of the total). USDA (August) forecasts ~3.25 Mt. The IOC's 124th Council of Members session takes place in November 2026; the IOC welcomed Iraq as a member on October 21, and Brazil has formally applied to join.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture has published a national aforo of 1,602,596 t (October 1) and AICA has confirmed 356,914 t of carry-in stocks (September 30); ICQRF puts Italian stocks at 195,044 t (September 30). Greek sector estimates point to 280,000–330,000 t, Tunisia's farmers' union sees a decline of up to 40%, INE projects ~175,000 t for Portugal, Turkish sector assessments cite 500,000–600,000 t, and preliminary industry figures put Syria at ~191,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 44, October 30, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now fourteen weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Late October 2026 vs. Late October 2025)

Spain's October 2025 reference is Poolred's provisional EVOO price for October 18–24, 2025 (€4,379.71/t, Fundación del Olivar), matching the week of our latest Poolred reading. Italy's year-on-year change is ISMEA's published variation for the third week of October 2026 (−48.0%); the October 2025 level is implied from it. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.