Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of October 23, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 43

Golden Tree

🇬🇷 Kalyves Polygyrou, Halkidiki, Greece · BIO Certified · ISO 9001 · ISO 22000 · HACCP

Golden Tree was created with a simple vision: to bring olive oil directly from the producer to the consumer. Based in Kalyves, Halkidiki, the company is run by people who come exclusively from the agricultural sector, with many years of experience in olive cultivation. Its extra virgin olive oil from the Halkidiki variety comes straight from the growers, without preservatives or other interventions, and stands out for its golden-green colour, intense aroma of freshly picked olives and acidity of just 0.2–0.4%. Combining modern production and packaging methods with ISO 9001, ISO 22000 and HACCP quality systems, Golden Tree is expanding beyond Greece to share the benefits of the Greek diet with a global audience — a timely profile as Greece's 2026/27 harvest gets under way.

View Profile →

Week 43 broke the pattern of synchronised declines. In Spain, the floor we flagged last week is being tested from below: Oleista's national EVOO average slipped to €3.14/kg (W43, -0.6%), Poolred's October 10–16 average fell to €3.14/kg (-1.5%), the Junta de Andalucía observatory printed €3.13/kg for October 12–18 and Infaoliva quoted €3.06/kg on October 19. Trading remains thin because the main harvest has not started, and the policy calendar is now the driver: the 2026/27 marketing order had not been published by October 21, and farm organisations and cooperatives stepped up pressure on the Ministry to publish it before the October 31 deadline. Italy rose instead, as new-crop oil entered ISMEA's sample: the national average jumped 8.6% to €4.75/kg, with new oil at €4.65/kg in Foggia while old-crop Bari held at €4.30/kg. Greece fell to €3.53/kg (W43, -3.6%), and new-crop cooperative deals in Laconia slid to €4.10/kg. Tunisia (€3.43/kg, -2.8%) and Portugal (€3.49/kg, +0.3%) posted their first readings since early October. Our read: Spanish prices should hold in a €3.05–€3.25/kg range until the withdrawal decision; publication of the order would support the upper half of that range, while a delay beyond October 31 or heavy early-November mill deliveries would push toward the lower end. Italian quotes should stay volatile as old and new crop mix in the averages.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of October 22, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 43, October 23, 2026.

Spain's national average eases to €3.14/kg (Oleista W43, -0.6% on our last print), with virgin oil at €3.02/kg and lampante at €2.93/kg. Every other reference points the same way: Poolred's October 10–16 average was €3.14/kg for EVOO (-1.5%), €3.01/kg for virgin (+0.1%) and €2.93/kg for lampante (-1%), with Jaén EVOO also at €3.14/kg (-2.3%); the Junta de Andalucía observatory printed €3.13/kg for October 12–18; and Infaoliva quoted €3.06/kg on October 19. Volumes remain small because the main harvest has not started. The week's story was political. On October 20, ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias jointly urged Minister Luis Planas to publish the 2026/27 marketing order and the accompanying Directorate-General resolution immediately, rejecting the opposition of packers and exporters. On October 21, Rafael Sánchez de Puerta, who chairs the olive oil sector of Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de España and runs Dcoop, said the sector "does not understand the delay", noting that the Ministry prefers to wait for November crop data. The farm groups stress that current prices — below €3.20/kg for EVOO and €2.90/kg for lampante — hit rain-fed groves hardest, which account for 70% of the oil-olive area. Earlier this month, the competition authority (CNMC) asked for stronger justification of any withdrawal. The legal deadline to approve the order is October 31; COAG's ~188,700 t (11.78%) withdrawal estimate remains the reference scenario.

• Order Deadline in Eight Days: Publication before October 31 is a precondition for any withdrawal; until then, buyers are pricing in uncertainty rather than a decision.
• References Aligned at €3.13–€3.14: Oleista, Poolred and the Junta now sit within €0.01/kg of each other; Infaoliva's €3.06/kg is the low end to watch.
• Next Data Points: Publication of the marketing order, regional aforo revisions (due through October) and the first AICA data for the 2026/27 campaign.

Oleista's first Portuguese update in three weeks puts EVOO at €3.49/kg (W41, October 5, +0.3%) and virgin oil at €3.33/kg — €0.35/kg above Spain. The national market bulletin for October 12–18 is the more telling data point: the average price of packaged extra virgin fell €1.18/L on the week, Spanish prices continue to set the tone, and the entry of low-priced Tunisian oil is putting the market under strong pressure, leaving national producers unable to cover raw-material and production costs. Oil quality is reported as good in all regions, and INE continues to project around 175,000 t, driven by new intensive and super-intensive groves in Alentejo. On October 22, Olivum — the association of olive growers and mills — highlighted that Baixo Alentejo now produces roughly 80% of Portugal's olive oil.

• Shelf Prices Start to Move: A €1.18/L weekly fall in packaged EVOO is the clearest pass-through of lower bulk prices we have seen in an EU market this autumn.
• Concentration in Baixo Alentejo: With ~80% of output from one modern-grove region, Portuguese supply will increasingly track Spanish super-intensive pricing.

Italy reverses last week's slide. ISMEA's national average for EVOO in the third week of October is €4.75/kg, up 8.6% on the week but still 48.0% below a year earlier, while virgin oil fell 6.2% to €3.00/kg; Oleista's W42 reading is identical at €4.75/kg (+8.7% on our last print), with lampante at €2.71/kg. The rise reflects the arrival of new-crop oil rather than a recovery in old-crop values: new oil in Foggia was quoted at €4.65/kg on October 15 (+16.3%) and in Ragusa at €12.50/kg on October 13 (+8.7%), while old-crop Bari held at €4.30/kg (October 12) and Terra di Bari DOP at €4.45/kg; the Bari Chamber of Commerce quoted old EVOO at around €4.25/kg. Supply is ample: ICQRF data put Italian stocks at 195,044 t on September 30, 46.7% more than a year earlier, including 82,195 t of Italian-origin EVOO (+170.5%). Grower protests continued in Apulia, and on October 19 MEP Michele Picaro asked the Commission to activate private storage aid and assess the impact of Tunisian imports.

• Two Markets in One: New oil at €4.65/kg and old crop at €4.25–€4.30/kg now coexist; national averages will swing with the mix for several weeks.
• Gap to Spain Widens to €1.61/kg: Last week's €1.21/kg window has narrowed for buyers; old-crop Italian lots are now the value play for origin-labelled programmes.

Oleista's fresh W43 reading puts Greek EVOO at €3.53/kg (-3.6%), with virgin oil at €2.90/kg and lampante at €2.20/kg. Market surveys place old-crop Cretan EVOO (acidity up to 0.5) at €3.35–€3.60/kg and Peloponnese oil at €3.30–€3.45/kg. The new crop is repricing quickly: after the €5.95/kg early-harvest opener and a second deal at €4.60/kg, the Agios Apostoloi agricultural cooperative in Laconia announced on October 20 the sale of 140 t of 2026/27 EVOO at €4.10/kg — €1.85 below the first sale and squarely within the €3.80–€4.20/kg base case for new-crop producer prices. In Messinia, the cooperative union expects output 40–50% above last year. Costs are the pressure point: growers are issuing appeals for farm workers, and in Crete picking day-wages have reached up to €80, while producers say they are forced to sell at prices close to Spanish and Tunisian levels.

• From €5.95 to €4.10 in Three Weeks: The new-crop price is converging on the €4/kg mark that sector analysts flagged in September.
• Bigger Crop, Higher Costs: A larger Messinian harvest and rising labour costs point to firm volumes but thin producer margins — expect sellers to resist bids below €4.00/kg for good new-crop lots.

Oleista's first Tunisian EVOO reading in three weeks is €3.43/kg (W41, October 5, -2.8%), with lampante at €2.45/kg (October 11). Tunisia is now at the centre of a political debate in Europe: on October 19, Italian MEP Michele Picaro (ECR) asked the European Commission to activate private storage aid for olive oil and to provide data on Tunisian import volumes between 2023 and 2026, at both EU and Italian level. Tunisia benefits from a 56,700 t duty-free EU quota; no new restrictions have been announced. Portugal's weekly bulletin also cites low-priced Tunisian oil as a source of pressure on Iberian prices. For 2026/27, growers continue to expect a harvest 30–40% smaller than last season's record, with Sidi Bouzid estimating about 350,000 t of olives.

• Old-Crop Discounting, New-Crop Tightness: Exporters are clearing old stock at lower prices ahead of a much smaller November harvest; expect new-crop offers to open firmer than today's €3.43/kg.
• EU Policy Risk Rising: Political pressure over Tunisian imports is building in Italy; for now, the quota regime is unchanged and the US tariff advantage over Turkey and Morocco remains settled.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update). Sector assessments in Izmir at the end of September put 2026/27 olive oil output expectations at 500,000–600,000 t, a very large "on" year. Export data underline how weak the closing campaign was: olive oil exports fell by about 60% in volume and 57% in value in 2025/26, with export revenue down to roughly $105.7 million over the first eleven months, which exporters attribute to past export bans, reduced support and the EU's 100 t duty-free quota (against 56,700 t for Tunisia). Farm-gate conditions are tough, with some growers reporting table olives offered at as little as 10 TL/kg and picking wages of about 5,000 TL per day. The olive oil export season opens on November 1, under the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 duty for US-bound lots.

Moroccan export offers hold at €4.00–€4.30/kg as harvesting progresses in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Domestically, professionals quoted on October 13 expect a good harvest and retail prices of 35–50 MAD per litre this season, well below last year; northern areas such as Ksar El Kébir, Ouezzane and Chefchaouen expect up to 80% more fruit, with picking from late October to mid-December. That regional optimism contrasts with preliminary international forecasts listing Morocco among origins producing less in 2026/27. With Spain at €3.14/kg, Moroccan oil competes on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price, and US-bound lots carry the settled 12.5% Section 301 duty.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia. The Istrian harvest began in early October; growers say high summer temperatures slowed ripening and raised costs, with typical yields of 10–14 litres of oil per 100 kg of olives, and organic Istrian producers are targeting €36–€40 per litre at retail. In Dalmatia, the Oblica variety is in its "on" year after last season's 38% shortfall, though some growers report yields below 10%. At the Chiavalon mill in Vodnjan, processing costs €0.37/kg of olives this season. Istria's standing in the Flos Olei guide and Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result (128 awards, 103 Gold) remain its strongest quality signals for autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest milling is now under way in Italy, Greece, Croatia, Portugal and Spain's first "primer chorro" areas — the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. In Istria, some mills now bundle polyphenol measurement into their standard analysis packages. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of October 23, 2026.

Oleista shows no new Lebanese reading since October 13: EVOO holds at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain now at €3.14/kg, the Lebanese premium widens slightly to €2.98/kg — almost double the Spanish price — confirming its role as a specialty origin serving diaspora and Middle Eastern markets rather than a bulk competitor. The main harvest is in progress.

The West Bank harvest continues into November and remains a key source of income for around 90,000 families. Access to groves remains the main risk: on October 21, a group harvesting olives near Nehalim, including international participants, was detained by Israeli forces. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should keep shipment windows for 2026/27 lots flexible.

Algeria's harvest season is opening, with its exportable surplus still constrained by export infrastructure and certification. French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now thirteen weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

The October harvest is under way, and the preliminary industry forecast circulated last week still projects Syrian output rising from about 66,000 t to 191,000 t in 2026/27. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement — but a crop of this size would make Syria a meaningful exporter again.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its final weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals, and NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere results continue to roll out through November. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spanish bulk at €3.14/kg and a global surplus forecast for 2026/27, Argentine bulk exporters face a tough price comparison in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro weakened to A$1.5980 (ECB, October 22, from A$1.6218), making European oil about 1.5% cheaper for Australian importers on FX alone — and roughly 2% cheaper for Spanish EVOO once this week's price dip is included.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5% — relevant as Turkey's export season opens on November 1 in a large "on" year. The euro was flat at $1.1205 (from $1.1208), so the dollar cost of Spanish EVOO is down ~0.7% on the week, entirely from Spain's price dip. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest under way.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). Preliminary industry forecasts circulated by the World Olive Oil Exhibition put 2026/27 world output at 3.50–3.65 Mt against consumption of ~3.25 Mt — a surplus year — with Spain at ~1.60 Mt (~46% of the total). USDA (August) forecasts ~3.25 Mt. The IOC's 124th Council of Members session takes place in November 2026.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture has published a national aforo of 1,602,596 t (October 1) and AICA has confirmed 356,914 t of carry-in stocks (September 30); ICQRF puts Italian stocks at 195,044 t (September 30). Greek sector estimates point to 280,000–330,000 t, Tunisian growers expect a 30–40% decline, INE projects ~175,000 t for Portugal, Turkish sector assessments cite 500,000–600,000 t, and preliminary industry figures put Syria at ~191,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 43, October 23, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now thirteen weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Late October 2026 vs. Late October 2025)

Spain's October 2025 reference is Poolred's provisional EVOO price for October 11–17, 2025 (€4,289.59/t, Fundación del Olivar), matching the week of our latest Poolred reading. Italy's year-on-year change is ISMEA's published variation for the third week of October 2026 (−48.0%); the October 2025 level is implied from it. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.