Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of September 25, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 39

Papa Christo

🇬🇷 Vrastama, Chalkidiki, Greece · By The Olivist · Strogylolia, Halkidikis & Kalamon

Papa Christo is the flagship extra virgin olive oil of The Olivist — a signature Chalkidiki blend that balances the bold character of early-harvest olives with a versatile, rounded finish. Produced in Vrastama from the local Strogylolia and Halkidikis varieties alongside Kalamon, it bridges traditional Greek cultivation and modern artisanal precision — a timely Northern Greek profile as the 2026/27 Greek harvest gets under way.

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The Mediterranean wholesale market drifted lower across most origins this week as attention turned from spot prints to the size of the 2026/27 crop. Spain eases to €3.40/kg (Oleista W39, September 24, -0.3%), still the cheapest origin tracked; Infaoliva's observatory shows Spanish EVOO has fallen from about €5/L in November to €3.40 in September. Portugal gives back most of last week's rebound, printing €3.51/kg (W38, -3.3%), which re-opens a gap with Tunisia (unchanged at €3.63/kg, W38). Greece slips to €3.74/kg (W39) after three straight gains, and Italy makes its first move in four prints, edging down to €4.82/kg (W37, -0.6%). The key event lies just ahead: the Junta de Andalucía presents its official 2026/27 aforo in Jaén on September 29. Expectations for Spain have already been trimmed — Greek sector leaders cite 1.4–1.5 million tonnes against earlier talk of up to 1.8 Mt, after summer temperatures of 42–44°C in parts of Andalusia — and a dry, hot September has ASAJA Córdoba asking the Junta to re-assess its figures. Spanish cooperatives enter the new campaign with ~265,000 t of stocks through August and 115,600 t of third-country imports through July, warning of low prices and high costs. In Greece, the harvest is beginning with a 280,000–330,000 t estimate and production costs of €3.00–€3.50/kg on organised farms, leaving growers little margin at current prices. Spain's fire season is effectively over: the Tuéjar blaze (Valencia, 835 ha) was extinguished on September 22. On trade policy, Turkey's EZZİB campaign for Section 301 relief enters a seventh week with no public USTR response reported. The EUR weakened to 1.1411 vs USD (ECB, September 23) while Brent fell back below $100. Our read: until the aforo lands, expect sideways-to-soft bulk pricing with thin volumes; a number at or below 1.4 Mt for Spain would be the most likely trigger for a firmer October.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of September 23, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 39, September 25, 2026.

Spain's national average eases marginally to €3.40/kg (Oleista W39, September 24, -0.3%), holding the bottom of the MOPI range. The week's real story is the crop: the Junta de Andalucía presents its official 2026/27 aforo in Jaén on September 29, and ASAJA Córdoba has asked for the presentation to be delayed and the field data re-evaluated after a rainless September and a new heat episode. UPA Jaén describes a "medium-high" crop — good fruit in irrigated groves, clear water stress in rain-fed ones — with August hailstorms destroying at least half the fruit in parts of Cambil and Los Villares. The September heatwave (40–44°C in Seville) has already cut Andalusia's table-olive forecast by 28%. Spanish cooperatives enter the campaign with ~265,000 t of stocks through August and 115,600 t of third-country imports through July, and warn of low prices against sharply higher costs.

• Aforo Is the Next Catalyst: Earlier talk of up to 1.8 Mt has been scaled back to 1.4–1.5 Mt in sector commentary; the Junta's September 29 figure will anchor October pricing.
• Fire Season Closes: The Tuéjar blaze (Alto Turia, 835 ha) was extinguished on September 22. The Copernicus/EFFIS 2026 tally reached 296,815 ha through September 16 — below 2025's record pace but more than three times the 2006–2025 annual average.
• US Tariff Question Fully Resolved for Spain: Spanish EVOO remains on the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Portugal gives back most of last week's +5.2% jump: Oleista's W38 reading (September 14) prints €3.51/kg, -3.3% from €3.63/kg, with virgin oil at €3.30/kg. The move puts Portugal back in second place behind Spain, just €0.11/kg above the Spanish average, and back below Tunisia after a single week level with it. Alentejo's irrigated hedgerow groves are in oil accumulation ahead of an early-October harvest start.

• Volatile Prints, Stable Direction: Three readings in a row have swung between -4% and +5%; the underlying level remains close to Spain's, consistent with Alentejo's role as an extension of the Iberian bulk market.
• Harvest Imminent: Alentejo super-intensive groves typically start picking in early October, so the next few prints will begin to reflect new-crop offers.

Italy's Oleista reading edges down to €4.82/kg (W37, -0.6%), its first move after three flat prints at €4.85/kg, with virgin oil unchanged at €3.50/kg. Apulia is moving into early ripening under milder late-September temperatures, with the Coratina harvest due to start in October. The Italy-Greece spread is roughly €1.08/kg. Italy's structural deficit — domestic output of around 250,000–300,000 t does not cover domestic demand — keeps it a net importer of Spanish and Tunisian bulk.

• Range Softens at the Margin: The first dip after three flat prints suggests buyers are deferring purchases toward new-crop oil.
• Origin Documentation Still in Focus: With the Italy–Spain gap above €1.40/kg, CoA and PDO/PGI verification remain essential procurement checks for Italian-labelled oil.

Greece eases a cent to €3.74/kg (Oleista W39), pausing a three-week gaining run as the 2026/27 harvest begins. SEVITEL and the National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization put output at 280,000–330,000 t, with ~300,000 t the most-cited scenario — above the IOC's June estimate of ~240,000 t. Good-quality oil trades around €3.90–€4.20/kg, down 56–59% from the ~€9.50/kg peak. The squeeze is on costs: €3.00–€3.50/kg on organised farms, €4–€5/kg with all labour included, and picking wages up to €60–€80 a day. Domestic demand is recovering, with retail volumes up ~6% in the first eight months of 2026, and standardised exports are estimated at ~50,000 t.

• "The Barometer Is Spain": Greek sector leaders say a very large Spanish crop could push producer prices toward €2.50/kg, while a good-but-not-exceptional one would support stability.
• Gold Spotlight Turns to Chalkidiki: This week's Gold Member feature, Papa Christo by The Olivist, showcases Northern Greece's Strogylolia and Halkidikis varieties as harvest positioning begins.

Tunisia holds at €3.63/kg (Oleista W38, September 14), with lampante at €2.60/kg (September 20). After Portugal's pullback, Tunisia is now the third-cheapest tracked origin. The record 2025/26 crop (~500,000 t) fuelled an exceptional export run — 368,000 t in the first nine months, +55.3% year on year, with the EU taking 57% and North America 24%. The alternate-bearing cycle points to a smaller 2026/27 harvest (November–December), and USDA forecasts exports dropping to 240,000 t in MY 2026/27; early Tunisian crop forecasts have historically been unreliable.

• Off-Year Risk Not Yet Priced: Prices are flat despite expectations of a smaller crop; buyers planning Q1 2027 Tunisian volume should keep a spot allocation rather than committing fully on forecasts.
• US Tariff Advantage Holds Firm: Nine weeks into Section 301 enforcement, Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list remains the clearest structural cost advantage among North African/Turkish origins.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update) and remains the effective ceiling among bulk-tier origins the MOPI tracks weekly. Izmir's Memecik and Ayvalık groves are moving into early ripening ahead of the October harvest. On trade policy, EZZİB's public campaign for a correction to the 12.5% Section 301 duty enters its seventh week with no public USTR response reported. Turkey sold $183.9 million of olive oil to the US in 2024 (UN COMTRADE), so the rate matters materially for the new campaign's export plans.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg with normal fruit development across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi ahead of an October start. The 12.5% Section 301 duty, now nine weeks into enforcement alongside Turkey's, is a settled cost for US-bound lots. Spanish producers increasingly name Morocco, Turkey and Egypt as lower-cost third-country competitors, underlining Morocco's role as a non-EU, non-quota diversification origin.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, unchanged on the week. Istrian estates are planning October early-harvest picking for high-phenolic oils, and D8 Adriatic Highway freight routing remains normal six weeks after the Omiš wildfire. Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result — 128 awards, including 103 Gold, second only to Italy's 166 — remains the strongest quality signal it can take into autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. With early-harvest picking starting in October across Greece, Italy, Croatia and Spain, this is the window in which phenolic content is highest — plan CoA sampling now. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of September 25, 2026.

Lebanon joins the MOPI's watch list this week with a fresh Oleista print: EVOO at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg (W39, September 22). At a €2.72/kg premium over Spain, Lebanese EVOO trades as a specialty origin, largely serving diaspora and Middle Eastern markets rather than competing in bulk.

Reuters reported on September 23 that Israeli military bulldozers uprooted olive groves near Ramallah in the occupied West Bank weeks before the annual harvest; Israel's military said it was checking the request for comment. The Palestinian Authority's Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission says attacks on agricultural land in August affected 21,508 trees. Volumes are small in global terms, but the harvest season is a recurring flashpoint for buyers sourcing Palestinian fair-trade oil.

Algeria's exportable surplus remains largely untapped, with export infrastructure and certification still the binding constraints. French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now nine weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues at a measured pace ahead of the October harvest. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is complete and the fresh vintage continues to move through distribution while Mediterranean supply is at its leanest. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. Argentine producers await the remaining NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere results alongside Australian, Chilean, New Zealand and South African peers.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro at A$1.6146 (ECB, September 23) leaves Australian oil broadly unchanged in euro terms on the week.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5% — still contested by Turkish exporters. The euro's slide to $1.1411 this week makes EU-origin oil slightly cheaper for US importers in dollar terms. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest starting in October.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC).

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June, before this summer's heat and wildfire damage. Since then, Greek sector leaders have raised Greece to 280,000–330,000 t, while sector commentary has trimmed Spain to 1.4–1.5 Mt; the Junta de Andalucía's September 29 aforo will be the first official 2026/27 figure for Spain's main region. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 39, September 25, 2026. Note: Section 301's in-transit exemption expired July 28 and the tariff split is now nine weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (September 2026 vs. September 2025)

Spain's September 2025 reference has been corrected to Poolred's verified late-September 2025 EVOO price (€4,258.89/t for the week to September 26, 2025). *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.