Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of October 2, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 41

Askra the Valley of Muses

🇬🇷 Askri, Viotia, Greece · Lymperis Estate · Megaron Variety · ISO 22000 / ISO 9001

Askra is the brand of Lymperis Estate, a fourth-generation olive family from the village of Askri in Boeotia — the "homeland of the Muses" at the foot of Mount Helicon. The estate controls the whole chain, from its own groves to modern, eco-friendly extraction and bottling on site, with the aim of preserving the olive's natural polyphenols and nutrients. More than 4,000 new olive trees have been planted in the last three years. Certified ISO 22000 and ISO 9001, Askra has earned recognition at the London International Olive Oil Competition and the Berlin Global Olive Oil Awards — a fine example of Central Greece's lesser-known Megaron cultivar as the 2026/27 harvest gets under way.

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The first full week of the 2026/27 campaign confirmed what the Andalusian aforo had suggested: supply is ample, and prices are adjusting down. Spain's national aforo (October 1) puts the crop at 1,602,596 t (+23%), and with carry-in stocks total availability approaches 2 Mt. Spain drops to €3.14/kg (Oleista W41, -6.3%), its lowest reading in our 12-month series; Poolred's weekly average for September 29 – October 5 was €3.34/kg, so the true market level likely sits between the two. Italy eases to €4.64/kg (W40, -2.3%) and Greece to €3.66/kg (W41, -0.5%). Portugal posts its first fresh print in three weeks at €3.50/kg (W39), now the second-cheapest origin, €0.03/kg below Tunisia, which holds at €3.53/kg (W39, no update). The policy debate in Spain has sharpened: farm groups and cooperatives want the Article 167a withdrawal activated now, while the CNMC has called for a narrower, evidence-based measure; the Ministry will decide in the first half of November after the definitive carry-in figure (mid-October) and revised regional estimates. In Greece, the first new-crop deal at €5.95/kg for 55 t of early-harvest oil sets a premium marker well above the €3.40–€3.75/kg old-crop range. The euro weakened to 1.1186 vs USD (ECB, October 8). Our read: expect Spanish prices to stay soft through October as harvest volumes build; a decision to activate 167a, or a downward revision of regional estimates if autumn rain stays scarce, are the two events that could put a floor under the market.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of October 8, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 41, October 9, 2026.

Spain's national average falls to €3.14/kg (Oleista W41, October 8, -6.3%), with virgin oil at €3.00/kg and lampante at €2.90/kg. Poolred, via ASAJA-Jaén, puts the week of September 29 – October 5 at €3.34/kg for EVOO, €3.19/kg for virgin and €2.99/kg for lampante. The Ministry's first national aforo (October 1) estimates 1,602,596 t for 2026/27 — a medium-high crop, 23% above last season — with Andalusia at 78.7% of the total and Jaén at 575,000 t, 36% of Spain. Minister Luis Planas called the forecast a guarantee of supply and market stability, but availability including carry-in could reach about 2 Mt. On October 8, ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias asked for urgent publication and immediate activation of the 2026/27 marketing rule, saying EVOO around €3.30/kg and lampante at €2.90/kg are below production costs. On October 5, the CNMC warned that mandatory withdrawals could limit supply and affect prices, quality and choice for consumers, and asked for stronger justification, a clear methodology for the withdrawal share (capped at 20% of estimated output) and a defined control plan. The Ministry will decide in the first half of November; Planas has also said that imports from origins such as Tunisia are not materially shaping Spanish prices.

• National Aforo Confirms Ample Supply: 1.6 Mt plus carry-in puts total availability near 2 Mt, removing any near-term supply squeeze.
• Two Price References Diverge: Oleista's €3.14/kg sits ~€0.20 below Poolred's €3.34/kg. Until new-crop volumes trade, use a blend of Oleista, Poolred and Infaoliva before re-pricing contracts.
• Next Data Points: The definitive carry-in stock is due in mid-October, and regions can revise their aforo figures until the end of the month — both feed into the November 167a decision.

Oleista has published its first Portuguese update since W38: EVOO at €3.50/kg (W39, September 21, -0.3%) and virgin oil at €3.32/kg. Portugal is now the second-cheapest origin we track, €0.03/kg below Tunisia but €0.36/kg above Spain's latest print. Alentejo's irrigated hedgerow groves are being harvested, and early-crop Portuguese oil traditionally reaches Spanish buyers ahead of Andalusian volumes. With Spain at €3.14/kg, the next Portuguese reading is more likely to follow Spain lower than to hold at €3.50/kg.

• Fresh Print, Still Lagging: The W39 reading predates Spain's aforo-driven drop; benchmark Portuguese new-crop offers against Spanish prices.
• Harvest Rolling: Super-intensive Alentejo groves are in full harvest; traditional Trás-os-Montes groves follow from late October.

Italy's Oleista reading eases for a third straight week to €4.64/kg (W40, -2.3%), with virgin oil steady at €3.20/kg and lampante at €2.77/kg. ISMEA data put Italian EVOO at €4.45–€4.60/kg on the Bari market in late September — the lowest level in a year — while Chieti quotes reached €11.50/kg. Foreign EVOO is the main source of pressure: ISMEA's September survey priced Spanish oil at €3.67/kg, Greek at €3.88/kg and Tunisian at €3.63/kg. The 2026/27 crop is an off-year in the South — Coldiretti Puglia expects declines of 20–40% across the region — but Italy entered the campaign with 233,377 t of olive oils in stock (ICQRF, July 31). ISMEA has noted that, despite the 2026 decline, Italian EVOO still trades above its main competitors. Growers in hill areas of central Italy face harvesting costs that can make bulk prices uneconomic, which is pushing more producers toward direct sales.

• Import Pressure Dominates: With foreign EVOO around €3.6–€3.9/kg, the Italy–Spain gap stands at €1.50/kg — wide enough to keep Italian bulk prices under pressure despite a smaller crop.
• Origin Documentation Still in Focus: CoA and PDO/IGP verification remain essential procurement checks for Italian-labelled oil.

Greece eases to €3.66/kg (Oleista W41, -0.5%), with virgin oil at €2.80/kg and lampante at €2.10/kg. The season's traditional first commercial deal closed this week: the Agios Apostoloi agricultural cooperative in Laconia sold 55 t of new-crop EVOO to an Italian company at €5.95/kg after a sealed-bid process. That compares with €7.85/kg for the first deal last season and €10.20/kg in 2024/25. First deals involve small, high-quality early-harvest lots and act as a starting signal rather than a market level; old-crop Greek EVOO trades at about €3.40–€3.75/kg, a level growers describe as very tight against labour, harvesting, fertiliser and energy costs. Greek production is seen near 300,000 t, against 230,000–235,000 t last season, with harvesting expected to run until late November. On the shelf, regular EVOO prices now top out at about €10.5/L, with near-permanent promotions at €7.30–€8.90/L.

• A 42% Lower Season-Opener: The €5.95/kg first deal is down sharply on last year's €7.85/kg, confirming that this season's starting point is far lower than in the shortage years.
• Gold Spotlight Turns to Boeotia: This week's Gold Member, Askra the Valley of Muses, showcases the Megaron cultivar from Askri — with ISO 22000 / ISO 9001 certification and international medals.

Oleista has not published a new Tunisian reading this week, so Tunisia holds at €3.53/kg (W39, September 21), with lampante at €2.53/kg (September 27). National data show a firmer export picture: the average export price reached 14.42 dinars/kg in August, up 7.1% on a year earlier, with category prices ranging from 8.41 to 17.12 dinars/kg. Tunisian oil reached more than 82 countries by the end of August; packaged oil now accounts for 14.5% of export volume and EVOO for 83.5%. Organic exports reached 53,000 t in the first ten months of 2025/26, with Italy taking 39% of volumes. For 2026/27, producers expect 250,000–300,000 t after the ~500,000 t record, with harvest from November.

• Stale Print, Spain Now Cheaper: Tunisia sits €0.39/kg above Spain's latest reading; expect Tunisian exporters to face pressure on old-crop offers until the November harvest confirms smaller volumes.
• US Tariff Advantage Holds Firm: Eleven weeks into Section 301 enforcement, Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list remains the clearest structural cost advantage among North African/Turkish origins.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update) and remains the effective ceiling among bulk-tier origins the MOPI tracks weekly. In the Edremit Gulf, one of the country's main producing areas, the local Chamber of Commerce describes 2026 as an "on" year with a strong crop and picking starting earlier than usual. The concern is price: with international olive oil at roughly €3.5–€4 per litre, exporters say current exchange rates and price levels make it hard for export revenue to cover production costs. EZZİB's campaign for relief from the 12.5% Section 301 duty enters a ninth week with no public USTR response reported.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg as harvesting progresses in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. The 12.5% Section 301 duty, now eleven weeks into enforcement alongside Turkey's, is a settled cost for US-bound lots. With Spain falling to €3.14/kg, Moroccan oil competes almost entirely on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, unchanged on the week. Istrian estates are milling early-harvest, high-phenolic oils, and D8 Adriatic Highway freight routing remains normal eight weeks after the Omiš wildfire. Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result — 128 awards, including 103 Gold, second only to Italy's 166 — remains its strongest quality signal for autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest milling is now under way in Italy, Greece, Croatia and Portugal, with Spain's first early oils ("primer chorro") due from mid-October — this is the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of October 9, 2026.

Oleista shows no new Lebanese reading this week, so Lebanon holds at its W40 print (September 29): EVOO at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain falling to €3.14/kg, the Lebanese premium widens to €2.98/kg — nearly double the Spanish price — confirming its role as a specialty origin serving diaspora and Middle Eastern markets rather than a bulk competitor.

The West Bank harvest is now in its opening weeks and runs into November, providing income for around 90,000 families. After a 2025 season that the UN described as one of the most difficult on record, with more than 150 settler-violence incidents linked to the harvest, access to groves remains the key risk for this campaign. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should keep shipment windows for 2026/27 lots flexible.

Algeria's harvest season opens in the coming weeks, with its exportable surplus still constrained by export infrastructure and certification. French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now eleven weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

Syria's October harvest is getting under way, with its post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continuing at a measured pace. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its final weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spanish bulk now near €3.14/kg and the euro weakening against the dollar, Argentine bulk exporters face a tougher price comparison in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro at A$1.6110 (ECB, October 8, from A$1.6255) makes European oil about 0.9% cheaper for Australian importers on FX alone, on top of the fall in Spanish prices.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5%. The euro's fall to $1.1186 makes EU-origin oil ~1.0% cheaper for US importers this week, compounding Spain's 6.3% price drop. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest under way.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). USDA (August) forecasts 2026/27 world output at ~3.25 Mt, of which ~2.10 Mt in the EU; Greek market sources put Mediterranean output at 3.0–3.2 Mt.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture has published a national aforo of 1,602,596 t (October 1), based on figures submitted by the regions, which may adjust them through October. Greek sector estimates now point to ~300,000 t, Federolio expects Italy ~20% below last season, and Tunisian producers 250,000–300,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 41, October 9, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now eleven weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Early October 2026 vs. Early October 2025)

Spain's October 2025 reference is Poolred's provisional EVOO price for the week of September 27 – October 3, 2025 (€4,240.30/t). Italy's reference is consistent with ISMEA reporting Bari EVOO above €9/kg twelve months before its late-August 2026 quote of €4.55/kg. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.