Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of May 30, 2026

Global production for the 2025/26 season is heavily impacted by a blockbuster production recovery in Tunisia (380,000–400,000 tonnes) and a solid 30% increase in Greek national yield (250,000 tonnes). While Spain's normalized yields have entirely dissipated past market panic, retail packagers continue to trade "hand-to-mouth," preventing deep inventory build-ups.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All wholesale prices are quoted in EUR. Rates as of May 24, 2026 (ECB / exchange-rates.org). 1 EUR = 1.161 USD / 0.864 GBP / 186.7 JPY / 1.628 AUD.

Mid-market rates. Verify with your bank or broker for transactional use.

The wholesale olive oil market in Greece has settled significantly compared to the record-high spikes of previous seasons. Driven by a solid production recovery in the 2025/2026 harvest (roughly 30% increase in national yield to around 250,000 tonnes), current wholesale prices have stabilized at bulk ex-works levels.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The "Frozen" Market: Greek wholesale trading is experiencing a relatively quiet period. While premium "extra-issimo" oils are sitting tight in storage, international buying interest (particularly from major Italian bottlers) is moving cautiously.
• The Price Gap Protest: A notable price gap between Greek producer prices (€4.30–€5.20) and Italian producer prices (€6.50–€7.50) triggered widespread protests among Greek farmers earlier in the season.
• Quality Over Volume: Irrigated groves in the Peloponnese and Crete are yielding exceptionally low acidity levels (around 0.3° or lower) with strong polyphenol profiles, commanding the absolute top tier of the listed wholesale ranges.

Italian wholesale olive oil prices are structurally higher than those in Greece and Spain. While the market has softened from historic highs—dropping from over €9.00/kg into the €6.00–€7.00 range—Italian EVOO continues to command a steep premium due to high domestic demand, lower production volumes, and strict PDO protection.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Buyer Stand-Off: Industrial bottlers in northern Italy are aggressively pushing back against domestic mills trying to keep prices near the €7.00 mark, with cheaper Spanish and Tunisian inventories available at €4.00–€4.50/kg.
• Rising Supply Pressure: Sellers are showing increased willingness to move product, but buyers are purchasing strictly "hand-to-mouth," keeping wholesale trade volumes uncharacteristically quiet.
• The Blend Dependency: Buying high-quality Greek EVOO at roughly €4.50/kg and bringing it to Italian blending hubs remains a highly profitable trade route, explaining why Italian merchants are heavily active in Greece.

Spain is the undisputed heavy hitter of the global olive oil industry, producing roughly half of the world's supply. Following a massive market correction after consecutive drought-impacted seasons, Spain's wholesale market has experienced a sharp downward price adjustment to a competitive national average of €4.00–€4.30/kg for EVOO.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• National Quality Breakdown: Virgin Olive Oil (VOO) has settled at €3.30–€3.60/kg. Lampante Oil hovers at €2.95–€3.20/kg as global refinery operations scale back up.
• Evaporated Panic & Normalized Yields: According to POOLred metrics, sellers have dropped asking prices by 15–25% from past peaks to encourage large-scale liquid asset movement.
• Aggressive Export Advantage: Spanish EVOO is roughly 36% less expensive than domestic Italian oil, driving aggressive export campaigns toward Northern Italian industrial bottlers.

Portugal occupies a fascinating spot in the Iberian market. Following a median harvest cycle where production dropped about 20% below initial forecasts, Portuguese wholesale EVOO bulk prices have aligned closely with mid-to-high quality Spanish benchmarks at €4.10–€4.60/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The North African Influx: A major talking point among Portuguese millers is the influx of cheap bulk imports from Tunisia, making it difficult for high-labor traditional northern mills to protect margins.
• Dual-Track Industry: High-tech Alentejo mills absorb corrections down to €4.10 easily via optimized hectare costs, while traditional northern farmers face a standstill in selling activity.

Turkey has fast become an aggressive power player in the Mediterranean bulk trade. After lifting bulk export bans implemented to control domestic inflation, current baseline wholesale prices for Turkish EVOO hover between €4.20–€5.20/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Italian Blending Target: Italian packagers are heavily targeting high-grade Turkish Memecik or Ayvalık oil around the €4.50 mark to stretch out scarcer Italian domestic supplies.
• The Economic Contrast: While the export market runs smoothly in Euros, hyperinflation within Turkey has turned local retail olive oil into an absolute luxury item for everyday domestic citizens.

Morocco's olive oil sector is experiencing a significant market correction. Plentiful rainfall during critical developmental windows late last year yielded an abundant crop, driving international bulk trading down to par with North African and Spanish baselines.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Post-Crisis Price Slump: Plentiful precipitation late last year burst the high-price bubble, bringing immense relief to consumers and bulk buyers who faced over 100 MAD per liter in previous seasons.
• The Export Quota Balance: The Moroccan government regulates bulk exports closely to protect domestic supply. Because international prices have softened, the incentive to aggressively dump oil into European streams has cooled.

Tunisia is currently a dominant disrupter. Following an absolute blockbuster 2025/2026 harvest season—with record yields estimated between 380,000 and 400,000 tonnes—Tunisia has surged forward to challenge Spain as a primary provider of bulk export oil, trading between €3.80–€4.15/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The European Lifeline: The EU duty-free quota (56,700 t/year) was fully allocated for the ninth consecutive year in 2025/26. Remaining volumes are now accessed via the Inward Processing Regime (IPR).
• Bottled vs. Bulk Strategy: Tunisia is executing a long-term push to process, bottle, and brand the oil domestically — and is currently negotiating with the EU to double the duty-free quota to 100,000 tonnes/year.

The wholesale landscape in Croatia defies broader European trends. Operating almost exclusively in a low-volume, boutique tier under 5,000 tonnes annually, Croatia does not trade in industrial bulk tankers, dealing instead in small stainless steel INOX batches handled by premium family estates.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The "Olive Tourism" Phenomenon: Independent mills find it far more profitable to sell their stock "at the doorstep" to millions of summer tourists or high-end local restaurants rather than entering competitive international markets.
• Award Season Boost: Multiple Croatian producers won medals at the 2026 NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition, reinforcing Istria's global reputation and supporting the premium price tier.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. The EU health claim threshold is 250 mg/kg. Values below are typical ranges for commercially available oils from each origin — premium single-estate and early-harvest lots often exceed the upper bounds.

Historical Price Context (May 2026 vs. May 2025)