Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of June 5, 2026

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market enters the final week of May 2026 at an inflection point. Prices continued their downward drift — Spain hit a new 5-year low of €3.93/kg (−3.67% in 10 days, Oleista W22) — but the supply narrative is sharply reversing. OliveA confirmed that 880,000 tonnes — 70% of the entire 2025/26 production — has already been contracted in just 7 months, with stocks at campaign lows. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering data shows a 37% fertility decline. Tunisia's quality story strengthened: 49 gold medals at Geneva 2026 and a record ONH competition confirm North African EVOO is no longer just a volume play. Croatia's 128 NYIOOC awards confirm its place among the world's elite producers for the third consecutive year.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of May 24, 2026 (ECB).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2025/26 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access.

The wholesale olive oil market in Greece has settled significantly compared to the record-high spikes of previous seasons. Driven by a solid production recovery in the 2025/2026 harvest (roughly 30% increase in national yield to around 250,000 tonnes), current wholesale prices have stabilized at bulk ex-works levels.

• The "Frozen" Market: Greek wholesale trading is experiencing a relatively quiet period. While premium "extra-issimo" oils are sitting tight in storage, international buying interest (particularly from major Italian bottlers) is moving cautiously.
• The Price Gap Protest: A notable price gap between Greek producer prices (€4.30–€5.20) and Italian producer prices (€6.50–€7.50) triggered widespread protests among Greek farmers earlier in the season.
• Quality Over Volume: Irrigated groves in the Peloponnese and Crete are yielding exceptionally low acidity levels (around 0.3° or lower) with strong polyphenol profiles, commanding the absolute top tier of the listed wholesale ranges.

Italian wholesale olive oil prices are structurally higher than those in Greece and Spain. While the market has softened from historic highs—dropping from over €9.00/kg into the €6.00–€7.00 range—Italian EVOO continues to command a steep premium due to high domestic demand, lower production volumes, and strict PDO protection.

• The Buyer Stand-Off: Industrial bottlers in northern Italy are aggressively pushing back against domestic mills trying to keep prices near the €7.00 mark, with cheaper Spanish and Tunisian inventories available at €4.00–€4.50/kg.
• Rising Supply Pressure: Sellers are showing increased willingness to move product, but buyers are purchasing strictly "hand-to-mouth," keeping wholesale trade volumes uncharacteristically quiet.
• The Blend Dependency: Buying high-quality Greek EVOO at roughly €4.50/kg and bringing it to Italian blending hubs remains a highly profitable trade route, explaining why Italian merchants are heavily active in Greece.

Spain is the undisputed heavy hitter of the global olive oil industry, producing roughly half of the world's supply. Following a massive market correction after consecutive drought-impacted seasons, Spain's wholesale market has experienced a sharp downward price adjustment to a competitive national average of €4.00–€4.30/kg for EVOO.

• National Quality Breakdown: Virgin Olive Oil (VOO) has settled at €3.30–€3.60/kg. Lampante Oil hovers at €2.95–€3.20/kg as global refinery operations scale back up.
• Evaporated Panic & Normalized Yields: According to POOLred metrics, sellers have dropped asking prices by 15–25% from past peaks to encourage large-scale liquid asset movement.
• Aggressive Export Advantage: Spanish EVOO is roughly 36% less expensive than domestic Italian oil, driving aggressive export campaigns toward Northern Italian industrial bottlers.

Portugal occupies a fascinating spot in the Iberian market. Following a median harvest cycle where production dropped about 20% below initial forecasts, Portuguese wholesale EVOO bulk prices have aligned closely with mid-to-high quality Spanish benchmarks at €4.10–€4.60/kg.

• The North African Influx: A major talking point among Portuguese millers is the influx of cheap bulk imports from Tunisia, making it difficult for high-labor traditional northern mills to protect margins.
• Dual-Track Industry: High-tech Alentejo mills absorb corrections down to €4.10 easily via optimized hectare costs, while traditional northern farmers face a standstill in selling activity.

Turkey has fast become an aggressive power player in the Mediterranean bulk trade. After lifting bulk export bans implemented to control domestic inflation, current baseline wholesale prices for Turkish EVOO hover between €4.20–€5.20/kg.

• The Italian Blending Target: Italian packagers are heavily targeting high-grade Turkish Memecik or Ayvalık oil around the €4.50 mark to stretch out scarcer Italian domestic supplies.
• The Economic Contrast: While the export market runs smoothly in Euros, hyperinflation within Turkey has turned local retail olive oil into an absolute luxury item for everyday domestic citizens.

Morocco's olive oil sector is experiencing a significant market correction. Plentiful rainfall during critical developmental windows late last year yielded an abundant crop, driving international bulk trading down to par with North African and Spanish baselines.

• The Post-Crisis Price Slump: Plentiful precipitation late last year burst the high-price bubble, bringing immense relief to consumers and bulk buyers who faced over 100 MAD per liter in previous seasons.
• The Export Quota Balance: The Moroccan government regulates bulk exports closely to protect domestic supply. Because international prices have softened, the incentive to aggressively dump oil into European streams has cooled.

Tunisia is currently a dominant disrupter. Following an absolute blockbuster 2025/2026 harvest season—with record yields estimated between 380,000 and 400,000 tonnes—Tunisia has surged forward to challenge Spain as a primary provider of bulk export oil, trading between €3.80–€4.15/kg.

• The European Lifeline: The EU duty-free quota (56,700 t/year) was fully allocated for the ninth consecutive year in 2025/26. Remaining volumes are now accessed via the Inward Processing Regime (IPR).
• Bottled vs. Bulk Strategy: Tunisia is executing a long-term push to process, bottle, and brand the oil domestically — and is currently negotiating with the EU to double the duty-free quota to 100,000 tonnes/year.

The wholesale landscape in Croatia defies broader European trends. Operating almost exclusively in a low-volume, boutique tier under 5,000 tonnes annually, Croatia does not trade in industrial bulk tankers, dealing instead in small stainless steel INOX batches handled by premium family estates.

• The "Olive Tourism" Phenomenon: Independent mills find it far more profitable to sell their stock "at the doorstep" to millions of summer tourists or high-end local restaurants rather than entering competitive international markets.
• Award Season Boost: Multiple Croatian producers won medals at the 2026 NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition, reinforcing Istria's global reputation and supporting the premium price tier.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the undisputed centre of global olive oil production, a growing number of producers outside the region are gaining market share — particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and the Middle East. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI.

Algeria ranks among the world's top ten olive oil producers, sitting just behind the major Mediterranean players. The 2025/26 season is shaping up to be a record year, with the IOC projecting output of up to 150,000 tonnes — potentially double the previous season. Domestic consumption averages approximately 81,000 tonnes/year, meaning the record harvest could generate Algeria's first meaningful exportable surplus in years.

• Emerging Exporter: Algeria exported only ~1,000 tonnes in 2023/24 — minimal on a global scale. However, the record 2025/26 harvest is expected to generate pressure to export surpluses, with the EU and Arab Gulf markets as primary targets.
• Infrastructure Gap: Algeria currently lacks the bottling and certification infrastructure to compete on quality at scale. The government has inaugurated its first EU-standard olive analysis laboratory in partnership with the EU, signalling intent to develop export capacity.

Syria was historically the world's third-largest olive oil producer before the civil war devastated its agricultural sector. Following the fall of the Assad government in late 2024, Syria's new administration has signalled free-market reforms and a drive to revive olive oil exports — a sector of deep cultural and economic significance in the country's northwest (Idlib, Aleppo, Latakia regions).

• Post-Conflict Recovery: Syrian olive oil exports peaked at ~51,000 tonnes in 2019 before the conflict severely disrupted production. The new government's free-market reform agenda and EU engagement signal a potential revival — watch this space over the next 2-3 seasons.
• Buyer Caution: Logistics, certification and payment infrastructure remain fragile. Buyers interested in Syrian sourcing should conduct enhanced due diligence on export documentation and chain-of-custody.

Jordan is a historically self-sufficient producer of premium EVOO, but the 2025/26 season has been severely impacted by drought and alternate-bearing cycles, with output expected to fall by approximately 50%. The Ministry of Agriculture has launched emergency measures including allowing limited imports from Tunisia, Lebanon and Spain, and suspending green olive exports to protect domestic supply.

Lebanon produces small volumes of exceptionally high-quality EVOO, primarily from the Souri (Sevillano) variety in mountain regions of the South, Bekaa Valley and North Lebanon. Despite severe economic crisis, Lebanon's olive oil sector has shown resilience — per capita consumption of 3.8 kg/year (IOC data) places Lebanon among the world's top consumers, and premium Lebanese EVOO commands strong prices in the Arab diaspora and specialty markets.

Argentina is the largest olive oil producer outside the Mediterranean, and one of the world's most exciting quality stories. Centred in the Mendoza, La Rioja and San Juan provinces at the foot of the Andes, Argentine EVOO — particularly from the native Arauco variety — regularly tops international competition. The producer Laur was ranked #1 EVOO Producer in the World by EVOO World Rankings for three consecutive years (2021-2023). Argentina accounts for approximately 1.84% of global olive oil exports by value (Tridge, 2026).

• Counter-Seasonal Advantage: Argentina harvests in April-June — exactly when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest. This makes fresh Argentine EVOO attractive for quality-focused buyers in the June-August window.
• Export Growth: Argentine olive oil exports surged +111.85% in value terms in 2025/26 (Tridge). The falling peso makes Argentine exports highly competitive priced in USD.

Chile is a growing olive oil producer and exporter, with production concentrated in the O'Higgins, Maule and Atacama regions. Chile accounts for approximately 1.00% of global olive oil exports by value. Primary export markets are Brazil, the United States and Spain. The 2025/26 season has seen a significant market contraction, with import values falling 55.7% and proxy prices declining 42.9% year-on-year as the global price correction ripples through South American markets.

Australia produces premium EVOO primarily in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia, with the sector strongly positioned around quality, transparency and traceability — all certified under the strict Australian Olive Association (AOA) standards, which are among the most rigorous in the world. Australian EVOO is harvested March-June and commands a premium positioning in Asian and domestic markets.

• Quality Leader: Australia consistently punches above its weight in international competitions. The AOA certification scheme requires independent lab testing and sensory panel assessment — making Australian EVOO one of the most reliably certified grades in the world.
• Growing Asian Demand: Japan, China and South Korea are the primary export markets for Australian EVOO, driven by the health-positioning of the product and its counter-seasonal freshness advantage.

California is the only significant olive oil producing region in the United States, centred in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. The state produces ultra-premium EVOO primarily from Spanish varieties (Arbequina, Arbosana, Koroneiki) under the rigorous California Olive Oil Council (COOC) certification. The US accounts for approximately 0.51% of global olive oil exports by value — a small producer but a highly influential quality standard-setter.

• The Tariff Factor: The Trump administration's 10% baseline tariff on all imports (April 2026) has made imported EVOO more expensive for US consumers, creating a competitive opening for domestic California producers. The NAOOA (National Olive Oil Association) is actively lobbying against tariffs that harm the broader market.
• Quality Benchmark: California's COOC certification is widely considered the world's most stringent olive oil standard, requiring acidity below 0.5% (vs. IOC's 0.8%) and regular independent lab testing. California EVOO is the quality reference point for the entire US market.

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season.

⭐ Southern Hemisphere — counter-seasonal to Mediterranean. Fresh oil available May-July when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Enter your parameters for an instant cost breakdown.

Historical Price Context (May 2026 vs. May 2025)