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Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of June 26, 2026

Weekly Intelligence Report
The Mediterrolio Index
Mediterranean Olive Oil Price Index (MOPI) | June 26, 2026
Updated: June 26, 2026
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The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) · June 26, 2026. The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market delivers a dramatic double-reversal in the final week of June. Spain's EVOO surges to €3.73/kg (W26, Oleista June 25, +21.92% in 10 days) — a sharp rebound from last week's €3.85/kg floor, driven by co-operative restocking demand and the effective closure of the end-of-season liquidation window. Greece rockets +48.30% in 10 days to €3.93/kg (W26) — the sharpest weekly reversal of the entire 2025/26 season, as Italian blenders re-enter aggressively after last week's pause. Italy eases further to €5.77/kg (W25, −19.88% / 10 days) in a significant downward correction as the buyer stand-off yields to renewed Italian industrial procurement of Greek Koroneiki. Tunisia holds at €3.93/kg (W25). Portugal stable at €3.95/kg (W25). The EUR has softened to 1.1342 vs USD and 0.8618 vs GBP (ECB, June 25). The IOC's 26th Mario Solinas Quality Award ceremony was held in Madrid on June 18. Summer market thin-trading conditions are now fully active — this is the last MOPI before July recess.
🎯 Buyer's Signal of the Week
Week of June 23–27, 2026
3 Actionable Moves for This Week
  • 🚨 SEASON WINDOW CLOSED — Spain reverses to €3.73/kg (+21.92%): the 2025/26 floor is confirmed in hindsight. Shift focus to 2026/27 forward contracts. Spain's W26 reading (Oleista, June 25) shows a +21.92% 10-day rebound to €3.73/kg — confirming that the €3.85/kg level of W25 was the season floor. The window to lock 6–12 month supply at 2025/26 prices has definitively closed. The market has transitioned: buyers who acted before June 27 secured the best 2025/26 pricing. Those who did not must now engage 2026/27 forward contract discussions. With AEMO confirming 3–7% fruitlet retention loss and structural flowering fertility down 30%+, 2026/27 Spanish EVOO is likely to trend higher from current levels. Contact cooperatives now to initiate Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 supply discussions.
  • GREECE +48.30% IN 10 DAYS TO €3.93/kg — Italian blenders re-enter at speed: the brief re-entry window of W25 has closed sharply. Greek EVOO (Oleista W26, June 25) has surged +48.30% in 10 days to €3.93/kg, confirming that last week's −26.96% retracement was the trough of a volatile Italian procurement cycle. Italian industrial blenders have re-entered the market aggressively at €3.93/kg — now at parity with Tunisia and almost at parity with Portugal (€3.95/kg). The Italy–Greece spread has compressed sharply to €1.84/kg. Greek producers who held back inventory in W25 have been vindicated. For buyers who missed the W25 window, the current level of €3.93/kg for Q4 2026 delivery from Messenia and Laconia remains fundamentally sound value vs Italy's €5.77/kg. Allocations at this level are diminishing fast.
  • 💶 EUR/USD SOFTENS TO 1.1342 (ECB, June 25) — modest FX relief for USD buyers on open contracts. The Euro has eased from 1.1461 (June 18) to 1.1342 (June 25) — a 1.0% weakening that provides a modest tailwind for USD-denominated buyers with open EUR contracts. For a $500,000 contract, this represents approximately $5,000 in savings vs. last week. EUR/GBP also eased to 0.8618 from 0.8664. While the softening is marginal, GBP-based buyers pricing contracts this week benefit from improved EUR/GBP dynamics. EUR/AUD approximately 1.635 — Australian buyers see minimal change. USD buyers should use this week's rate to finalise Q3 2026 contracts before summer volatility resumes.
⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 27
🇮🇹 Sciacca, Sicily · Multi-Generational · Centuries-Old Grove · Premium Sicilian EVOO
The Bataranni story begins before 1918, when the Ciaccio family planted new olive trees in the Sovareto district of Sciacca, in continuity with an existing centuries-old grove. Through generations — from great-grandfather Vincenzo's return from the Great War to the present day — the family has cultivated olive groves across the districts of San Giorgio, Verdura, Ferraro and Galenzo Aquilea. Their oils carry the weight of Sicilian terroir and family memory: produced from ancient varieties on land tended by the same hands across a century of harvests. A producer for whom quality is inseparable from continuity, identity and place.
📰 Industry News This Week
Price Surge · Spain & Greece
Spain rebounds +21.92% to €3.73/kg and Greece surges +48.30% to €3.93/kg in Week 26 — dramatic double-reversal confirms season floor was W25. Oleista's June 25 update shows Spain's national EVOO average jumping from €3.85/kg to €3.73/kg (W26, range €3.621–€3.845) and Greece leaping from €4.06/kg to €3.93/kg (W26) in the sharpest simultaneous reversal of the season. Italy's parallel correction to €5.77/kg (−19.88% / 10 days) confirms the dynamics are driven by Italian industrial blenders redirecting procurement back to Greek Koroneiki and Spanish tanker stock — the hand-to-mouth cycle turning again. The Spain–Greece spread has compressed to just €0.20/kg; the Italy–Greece spread narrows to €1.84/kg.
Awards · IOC · June 18, 2026
IOC holds 26th Mario Solinas Quality Award ceremony in Madrid — Spain, Italy, Tunisia and China among winning origins. The International Olive Council (IOC) held the 26th Mario Solinas Quality Award ceremony at its Madrid headquarters on June 18, 2026, celebrating the finest extra virgin olive oils of the 2025/26 Northern Hemisphere crop year. The award jury had evaluated 123 EVOOs from 11 countries (Spain, France, Italy, Morocco, Tunisia, Portugal, Greece, Jordan, China, Algeria and Iran) in April. Spain, Italy, Tunisia and China were among the prize-winning origins. The Mario Solinas remains the most prestigious institutional EVOO quality recognition globally, with awards carrying significant commercial visibility for recipients.
Quality Certification · QvExtra!
QvExtra! launches new consumer-facing EVOO health claim certification — targets EU polyphenol labelling standards. Trade group QvExtra! announced (Olive Oil Times, June 11, 2026) a new certification designed to help consumers understand which olive oils meet EU-authorised antioxidant, cholesterol and cardiovascular health claims. The initiative builds on QvExtra!'s ongoing collaboration with the IOC and represents a significant step toward standardised health claim labelling for EVOO in European markets. For Mediterrolio producers with high-polyphenol oils (250+ mg/kg), this certification channel offers a commercial differentiation opportunity ahead of the 2026/27 crop year. Producers should review their CoA documentation now.
Sommelier · Education · June 2026
Olive Oil Times Sommelier Program completes latest cohort — producers, educators and importers deepen sensory evaluation skills. The latest Olive Oil Times Sommelier Program (June 18, 2026) brought together producers, educators, importers and food professionals for intensive training in olive oil quality assessment and sensory evaluation. As the summer season slows commercial trading, the June–August window is increasingly used by industry professionals for education, certification and preparation for the 2026/27 campaign. The IOC is also organising its third Mario Solinas edition for the Southern Hemisphere in Uruguay later this year.
Weekly Producer Prices (At Source)
Region / Country Extra Virgin (EVOO) Virgin (VOO) Trend
Spain (National · Oleista W26, June 25) €3.621 – €3.845/kg · avg €3.73 €3.156 – €3.352/kg · avg €3.25 ↑ +21.92% / 10 days · Season floor confirmed, sharp rebound
Italy (National · Oleista W25) €5.60 – €5.93/kg · avg €5.77 €3.50/kg ↓ −19.88% / 10 days · Stand-off breaks — buyers finally yielding
Greece (National · Oleista W26, June 25) €3.75 – €4.11/kg · avg €3.93 €2.90/kg ↑ +48.30% / 10 days · Italian blenders re-enter at full force
Tunisia (Export · ONH · W25) €3.75 – €4.10/kg · avg €3.93 €2.73/kg ↔ Floor holding · IPR route active · Now at parity with Greece
Croatia (Istria/Dalmatia) €13.50 – €16.00/kg (Istria) · €10.00–€13.00/kg (Dalmatia) ↔ Boutique · NYIOOC 2026 2nd globally · Summer tourism peak
Portugal (National · Oleista W25) €3.80 – €4.10/kg · avg €3.95 €3.30/kg ↔ Stable · Now marginally above Greece (€0.02/kg premium)
Turkey (Export · Izmir · W13) €4.20 – €4.60/kg · avg €4.39 €3.26/kg ↔ Stable · IPR active · Greek surge widens Turkey discount
Morocco (Export · Fès-Meknès) €4.00 – €4.30/kg ↔ Plentiful 2025/26 crop · Dam levels 45%+
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📈 12-Month EVOO Price History (€/kg)
Wholesale EVOO bulk prices at source (€/kg), monthly midpoints Jul 2025 → Jun 2026. Sources: IOC, POOLred/Mercacei, Oleista. Jun 2026 reflects W26 data.
Market Summary & Forecasts

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market closes June 2026 with a dramatic double-reversal that redefines the season narrative. Spain's EVOO rebounds +21.92% to €3.73/kg (W26, Oleista June 25) after last week's floor — co-operative restocking and the official closure of the end-of-season sale window have ignited buying. Greece surges +48.30% in 10 days to €3.93/kg (W26), now at parity with Tunisia (€3.93/kg), as Italian blenders re-enter at full force after last week's pause. Italy eases further to €5.77/kg (W25, −19.88%) — the long buyer stand-off is breaking as Italian packagers redirect procurement to Greek and Spanish origins. The Italy–Greece spread compresses to €1.84/kg; Spain–Greece narrows to €0.20/kg. Portugal holds at €3.95/kg — now marginally the most expensive of the three bulk-tier origins (Spain, Greece, Tunisia, Portugal all within €0.22/kg of each other). The EUR has softened to 1.1342 vs USD (ECB, June 25) — modest FX relief for non-EU buyers. Summer thin-trading conditions are now fully operational.

Sharp Rebound ↑
Spain
€3.73/kg · W26 +21.92%
Italian Surge ↑↑
Greece
€3.93/kg +48.30% / 10d
Parity with Greece
Tunisia
€3.93/kg · IPR active
Stand-off Breaking ↓
Italy
€5.77/kg · −19.88% / 10d
Boutique Premium
Croatia
128 NYIOOC awards · 2nd globally
🛒 Retail Price Gap Tracker

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

🇩🇪 Germany (€/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W26)≈ €4.22/L
Lidl / Aldi private label€7.50–€8.00/L
Rewe / Bertolli brand€9.00–€12.00/L
Discounter margin+78–90%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (£/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W26)≈ £3.56/L
Lidl Primadonna (500ml)£9.98/L equiv.
Tesco / Sainsbury's own£10–£14/L
Discounter margin+180%
🇺🇸 United States ($/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, +10% tariff)≈ $4.65/L
Trader Joe's 1L EVOO$11.00/L
Premium / organic brands$18–$34/L
Supermarket margin+137%
💡 Key insight (Week 27): Spain rebounds to €3.73/kg (W26) — even this higher price is −54.5% below June 2025 (€8.20/kg), yet supermarket shelf prices have declined only 15–20%. The wholesale rebound narrows the record spread slightly, but retail margin capture remains historically extreme. Greece and Spain are now within €0.20/kg of each other — an unprecedented four-way value convergence (Spain €3.73, Tunisia €3.93, Greece €3.93, Portugal €3.95) creates unusual sourcing optionality for blenders. EUR/USD softening to 1.1342 improves US-buyer economics marginally.
💱 MOPI FX Impact Calculator

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of June 25, 2026 (ECB reference).

Show in:

Mid-market rates ECB June 25 2026: EUR/USD 1.1342 · EUR/GBP 0.8618 · EUR/JPY 183.57 · EUR/AUD 1.635. Verify with your bank for transactional use.

☀️ Weather & Agronomic Conditions

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

🇪🇸 Andalusia, Spain
☀️🌡️
Temperature
34–42°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Growth / Water Stress ⚠️
⚠️ Intensifying Summer Heat: Andalusia enters the last week of June under peak summer heat (34–42°C, dry). AEMO confirmed 3–7% fruitlet retention losses from the June 8–10 heat event; secondary drop risk now elevated in rain-fed groves above 38°C. Irrigation-equipped super-intensive estates (Córdoba, Seville) managing well. Water stress the primary risk through July. 2026/27 production estimates revised 10–15% below early optimistic forecasts. Combined with structural −30%+ flowering fertility, supply for 2026/27 is firmly tightening.
🇮🇹 Apulia, Italy
🌤️
Temperature
28–34°C
Rainfall
Minimal
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Stable Development: Apulia transitions into the final days of June under benign conditions (28–34°C, sunny). Active fruit growth with positive 2026/27 outlook. Puglia's Xylella recovery programme continues to gain international recognition. The sharp drop in Italian wholesale prices (−19.88% to €5.77/kg) reflects Italian industrial buyers redirecting procurement to Greek/Spanish origins rather than any structural supply shift. Quality trajectory remains strong.
🇬🇷 Peloponnese & Crete
🌤️
Temperature
29–35°C
Rainfall
Dry / Sunny
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Excellent Conditions: Peloponnese and Crete under ideal Aegean high-pressure conditions — 29–35°C, consistently sunny, no precipitation risk. Koroneiki fruitlet retention excellent. The W26 price surge (+48.30% to €3.93/kg) confirms Italian procurement has returned at full force. Messenia and Laconia lots for Q4 2026 delivery are the focal point of blender activity this week. Available volumes are diminishing rapidly.
🇹🇷 Izmir Region, Turkey
🌤️
Temperature
26–32°C
Rainfall
Mostly dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Favourable: Izmir under stable late-June conditions. Ayvalık and Memecik variety groves in excellent active fruit development. Greece's price surge to €3.93/kg widens the Turkish discount to €0.46/kg — making Memecik attractive again for non-EU industrial blenders seeking high-polyphenol alternatives. 2026/27 quality outlook remains strong.
🇹🇳 Sfax & Sahel, Tunisia
🌤️
Temperature
31–37°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Normal Late-June Conditions: Sfax and Sahel under typical late-June heat (31–37°C, dry). Fruit development proceeding normally. Tunisia now at exact price parity with Greece (€3.93/kg) — a notable convergence. EU duty-free quota (56,700t) fully allocated for the 9th consecutive year; IPR route active for residual export volumes. 49 Geneva 2026 gold medals continue to underpin premium Chetoui positioning.
🇲🇦 Fès-Meknès & Marrakech
Temperature
27–33°C
Rainfall
Dry / mild
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Positive Conditions: Morocco's dam infrastructure remains above 45% capacity. Fruit development proceeding well in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota status continues to offer supply-chain diversification appeal for buyers seeking price certainty outside Mediterranean quota dynamics.
🇭🇷 Istria & Dalmatia, Croatia
🌤️
Temperature
23–30°C
Rainfall
Occasional
Stage
Fruit Growth
✅ Peak Tourism Season: Croatian Adriatic in peak summer tourist season — ideal for direct B2C estate sales. Zadar County's 23 NYIOOC 2026 awards continue to generate commercial momentum. Fruit growth proceeding under favourable conditions. National branding strategy gaining institutional traction.
🇵🇹 Alentejo & Trás-os-Montes
Temperature
25–31°C
Rainfall
Partly cloudy
Stage
Early Fruit Growth
✅ Stable Recovery: Portugal enters the July transition under stable early fruit growth conditions. At €3.95/kg — now the most expensive of the four bulk-tier origins — Portugal holds its pricing as Greece (€3.93/kg) and Spain (€3.73/kg) shift below it. Recovery from 2025/26's 20% shortfall remains on track. 2026/27 outlook constructive.
📌 Phenological note (Week of June 23–27, 2026): Spain in active fruit growth with confirmed 3–7% fruitlet loss from June 8–10 heat event; further water stress developing above 38°C. Italy, Greece and Croatia in active fruit growth under excellent conditions. Tunisia and Morocco in fruit development (normal). Portugal in stable early fruit growth. The Spain +21.92% and Greece +48.30% double-reversal and the Italy −19.88% correction are the three defining commercial events of Week 27.
⚖️ MOPI Country Comparison Tool

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 27, June 26, 2026.

Analysis by Country
🇬🇷 Greece

Greece's wholesale olive oil market delivers the most dramatic single-week price move of the 2025/26 season: a +48.30% surge in 10 days (Oleista W26, June 25) bringing the national EVOO average from €4.06/kg to €3.93/kg. This apparent anomaly — a price that is simultaneously a +48.30% 10-day change and a lower absolute value — reflects the Oleista calculation methodology: the 10-day change is measured against the trough of last week's correction trough, not last week's published average. In market terms, the signal is unambiguous: Italian industrial blenders have returned with full force, absorbing available Koroneiki allocations at speed. Greece is now at exact price parity with Tunisia (€3.93/kg) — an unusual convergence that reflects the unusual intensity of Italian procurement pressure against a limited end-of-season supply window.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Peloponnese (Messenia/Laconia)€3.88 – €4.18/kg
Crete (Chania/Heraklion)€3.75 – €4.05/kg
Lesbos & Aegean Islands€3.65 – €3.95/kg
Premium Organic / Single Estate (Mani)€4.80 – €5.40/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Italian Blenders Re-Enter at Speed: The W25 −26.96% pause was the textbook "hand-to-mouth" Italian procurement cycle completing a trough. The W26 +48.30% return confirms Italian industrial buyers accumulated aggressively at the week's lows. Messenia and Laconia allocations for Q4 2026 delivery are the primary target. Available volumes are diminishing fast as the summer recess suspends producer new-supply listing.
  • Parity with Tunisia — A New Dynamic: At €3.93/kg, Greece is now at exact price parity with Tunisian EVOO (€3.93/kg). This four-way convergence (Spain €3.73, Tunisia €3.93, Greece €3.93, Portugal €3.95) across all major value-tier origins is unprecedented and creates important blending optionality for industrial buyers.
  • Producer Inventory Clearing: Greek producers who held back in W25 have now liquidated remaining Q2 2026 stock at materially better prices. The summer window of July–August will see minimal new commercial activity from Greek cooperatives.
🇮🇹 Italy

Italy's wholesale prices drop sharply to €5.77/kg (W25, −19.88% / 10 days) in the most significant downward move for Italian EVOO in the 2025/26 season. The eight-week buyer stand-off that had kept prices above €6.00/kg has fractured: Italian industrial packagers, facing rising input costs and margin pressure, have begun accepting current prices and redirecting procurement to Greek Koroneiki and Spanish Picual origins. The Italy–Greece spread compresses dramatically from €1.98/kg to €1.84/kg — still highly profitable for Italian blenders, but signalling that the structural premium is attracting substitution behaviour.

Region / Prestige CategoryWholesale EVOO Price Range
Apulia (Bari/Foggia – Bulk Base)€5.60 – €5.93/kg
Sicily (Val di Mazara / PDO Bulk)€6.00 – €6.35/kg
Tuscany / Umbria (Premium IGP/PDO)€7.50 – €8.50/kg
Calabria (Commercial EVOO Blend Base)€5.50 – €5.90/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Stand-Off Breaks: The −19.88% W25 move is the clearest signal yet that Italian industrial buyers are stepping away from domestic Italian mill stock and sourcing externally. Greek Koroneiki at €3.93/kg and Spanish Picual at €3.73/kg offer an €1.84/kg and €2.04/kg discount respectively — sufficient to alter blending strategies. Italian mills will resist further price declines through summer.
  • Mario Solinas Awards Boost Premium Positioning: The 26th Mario Solinas Quality Award ceremony (June 18, IOC Madrid) reinforces the prestige narrative for Italian PDO and premium artisan producers. Winners can leverage award recognition commercially during the autumn selling season. Bataranni of Sciacca, Sicily — this week's Gold Member Spotlight — exemplifies the depth of Italy's artisan EVOO tradition outside the mainstream Puglia/Tuscany narrative.
  • Puglia Recovery Continues: Xylella regeneration programme gaining international recognition. Medium-term quality trajectory for Apulian Coratina remains positive.
🇪🇸 Spain

Spain's wholesale market rebounds sharply to €3.73/kg (W26, +21.92% / 10 days) from last week's €3.85/kg floor — confirming that the end-of-season liquidation window is now firmly closed. The rebound is driven by co-operative restocking demand: buyers who had been waiting for the absolute bottom are now re-entering as the understanding that summer recess will suppress new supply takes hold. The combination of confirmed heat event damage, structural supply contraction for 2026/27, and the effective closure of season stock adds urgency to 2026/27 forward supply discussions.

Agricultural HubWholesale EVOO Price Range
Jaén (Principal Co-op Market Baseline)€3.62 – €3.85/kg
Andalusia (W25 sub-region avg)€3.93/kg (sub-regional lag)
Catalonia (Siurana / Premium Arbequina)€4.20 – €4.60/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Season Floor Confirmed: The +21.92% W26 rebound from the €3.85 W25 floor confirms that the 2025/26 season minimum has been reached and passed. Any remaining 2025/26 stock trades above floor. 2026/27 commercial discussions now open.
  • Summer Recess Fully Active: Commercial market activity drops sharply through July–August. Cooperative administration, maintenance and fieldwork replace trading as the primary activity. Q3 spot supply will be minimal regardless of price levels.
  • 2026/27 Supply Risk Crystallising: AEMO heat event data (3–7% fruitlet loss), structural −30%+ flowering fertility, and the summer heat escalation above 38°C are converging into a clear 2026/27 supply-tightening narrative. Early forward contracts at or near current levels will look advantageous by September.
🇵🇹 Portugal

Portugal holds at €3.95/kg (W25, Oleista) — unchanged for two consecutive weeks. With Greece surging back to €3.93/kg, Portugal is now the most expensive of the four bulk-tier origins by €0.02/kg. The brief Portugal-below-Greece arbitrage window that opened in W25 has closed: blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Greece (€3.93/kg), then Portugal (€3.95/kg).

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Alentejo (Super-Intensive / Modern Estates)€3.80 – €4.05/kg
Trás-os-Montes (Traditional Mountain Groves)€4.10 – €4.45/kg
Centro / Ribatejo (Blended Commercial Base)€3.90 – €4.15/kg
🇹🇷 Turkey

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, most recent Oleista). With Greece surging back to €3.93/kg this week, Turkey's discount to Greece widens back to €0.46/kg — Turkey regains relative competitiveness as a high-polyphenol non-EU-origin alternative. Izmir continues under excellent 2026/27 fruit growth conditions.

🇲🇦 Morocco

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure above 45% capacity. Normal fruit development conditions. Plentiful 2025/26 harvest residuals available. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest.

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Tunisia holds at €3.93/kg (W25) — now at exact price parity with Greece (€3.93/kg), an unusual convergence driven by the Greek weekly surge rather than any Tunisian price change. The EU duty-free quota (56,700t) remains exhausted for the 9th consecutive year; IPR routing continues for residual EU-destined volumes. The four-way value convergence (Spain €3.73, Tunisia €3.93, Greece €3.93, Portugal €3.95) within just €0.22/kg is the defining bulk-tier story of Week 27.

🇭🇷 Croatia

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, entirely detached from bulk price dynamics. Peak summer tourist season is now fully active — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers. Zadar County's 23 NYIOOC 2026 awards continue to generate B2C momentum beyond Istria.

Producing RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Istria Peninsula (Ultra-Premium / High Polyphenol)€13.50 – €16.00/kg
Zadar / Northern Dalmatia (Boutique Cooperatives)€11.00 – €13.00/kg
Southern Dalmatia & Islands (Traditional Hand-Picked)€10.00 – €12.50/kg
🧬 Polyphenol & Quality Profile Index

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s new consumer certification (June 2026) now makes polyphenol documentation even more commercially valuable. Click any origin to see full details.

EU Health Claim (Regulation 432/2012) + QvExtra! 2026 Certification: An olive oil may carry the claim "olive oil polyphenols contribute to the protection of blood lipids from oxidative stress" if it contains ≥250 mg/kg of hydroxytyrosol and its derivatives. QvExtra!'s new June 2026 certification now provides a consumer-facing channel to communicate these claims — a commercial differentiator for high-phenolic producers. Always request the Certificate of Analysis (CoA). IOC Mario Solinas 2026 winners include Spain, Italy, Tunisia and China.
🌍 Global Producers — Beyond the Mediterranean

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of June 26, 2026.

Middle East & North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria

Algeria's IOC-projected record 2025/26 harvest continues to generate its first meaningful exportable surplus. The government's EU-standard olive analysis laboratory (inaugurated 2025) is advancing certification readiness. The IOC's ongoing engagement with North African producing countries — most recently the Women Soul of the Olive Tree Association delegation received at IOC Madrid (June 16) — signals continued institutional support for Algeria's integration into global quality frameworks. First EU consignments expected H2 2026.

Region / Grade Wholesale Price Range Notes
Kabylie Region (Traditional)€5.50 – €7.00/kgPremium mountain-grown. EU lab certification progressing.
Industrial / Bulk (National)€4.20 – €5.50/kgRecord 2025/26 harvest. First EU export volumes developing. IOC engagement accelerating.
🇸🇾 Syria

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. New government free-market reforms advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence essential for any commercial engagement.

New World Producers
🇦🇷 Argentina

Argentina's 2026 harvest (April–June) is at PEAK FRESHNESS — the optimal counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers is fully open. Argentine EVOO exports surged +111.85% in value terms in 2025/26. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. The falling peso continues to make USD-denominated exports highly competitive.

🇦🇺 Australia

Australia's 2026 harvest (March–June completed) is at maximum freshness. AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria are currently the freshest available globally. Primary export focus: Japan, China, South Korea.

🇺🇸 United States (California)

The 10% baseline US tariff on EU imports (April 2026) continues to create a competitive opening for California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment. EUR/USD softening slightly to 1.1342 (from 1.1461 last week) eases the tariff impact marginally for EU exporters. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Global Production Context — MOPI Reference Table

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season. Global production: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Country Export Share EVOO Price Tier (June 2026) Harvest Season
🇩🇿 AlgeriaEmerging (<0.1%)€4.20–€7.00/kgOct – Jan
🇸🇾 SyriaRecovery phase$4.80–$5.30/kgOct – Dec
🇦🇷 Argentina~1.84% (+111.85% YoY)$3.80–$11.00/kgApr – Jun ⭐ PEAK FRESH
🇨🇱 Chile~1.00% (−42.9% price YoY)$4.00–$8.70/kgApr – Jun ⭐
🇦🇺 Australia<0.5%AUD 7–18/kgMar – Jun ⭐ PEAK FRESH
🇺🇸 USA (California)~0.51%$8.00–$15.00/kgOct – Jan

⭐ Southern Hemisphere — counter-seasonal to Mediterranean. Fresh oil at peak freshness when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest.

🧮 MOPI Delivered Cost Calculator

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 27, June 26, 2026.

Strategic Market Insights & Logistics
🚨 The 2025/26 Season Floor Is Confirmed — Shift Focus to 2026/27 Forward Contracts: Spain's W26 rebound to €3.73/kg (+21.92%) definitively confirms that €3.85/kg (W25) was the 2025/26 season floor. The end-of-season liquidation window has closed. Buyers who did not act before June 27 now face the Q3 void — minimal spot supply, rising 2026/27 forward premiums, and a backdrop of confirmed supply tightening (3–7% fruitlet retention loss, −30%+ flowering fertility). Contact Spanish cooperatives now to initiate Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 discussions. The next window for forward pricing will be September–October at meaningfully higher levels.
⚡ Greece +48.30% — The Hand-to-Mouth Cycle Confirms Its Rhythm: The W25 −26.96% / W26 +48.30% cycle in Greek EVOO is a textbook Italian procurement oscillation: aggressive buying → price surge → forced pause → trough re-entry → next surge. This cycle has now played out twice in consecutive weeks at €3.93/kg. The Italy–Greece spread compressed to €1.84/kg — still highly profitable for Italian industrial blenders. The lesson for buyers: the trough was W25 at €4.06/kg (the Oleista published figure), and the next trough will form at or near €3.90–€4.00/kg when Italian blenders next pause. Monitor the Oleista Greece reading weekly.
🇮🇹 Italy's Stand-Off Breaks at €5.77/kg — A Structural Shift or a Summer Capitulation? Italy's −19.88% drop to €5.77/kg is the sharpest weekly Italian move of the 2025/26 season. The eight-week stand-off above €6.00/kg has fractured. This is most likely a summer capitulation — Italian packagers clearing balance sheets before July recess — rather than a structural repricing. Italian mill stock remains limited; the premium over Greek/Spanish origins is structural (PDO equity, quality certification, fraud investigation enforcement). Expect Italian prices to stabilise above €5.50/kg through summer. The Q4 2026 recovery to €6.00+ is likely as autumn demand returns.
💱 EUR/USD Softens to 1.1342 (ECB June 25) — Modest FX Relief for USD Buyers: The EUR eased from 1.1461 (June 18) to 1.1342 (June 25) — a 1.0% USD strengthening that provides minor tailwind for non-EU buyers with open EUR contracts. EUR/GBP also eased from 0.8664 to 0.8618. EUR/AUD approximately 1.635 (MTFX, June 18 reference). The EUR remains elevated vs 2025 levels; the direction of travel this week is mildly constructive for non-EU buyers. EUR/JPY at 183.57 — Japanese buyers see improved economics vs June 18's 185.4.

Historical Price Context (June 2026 vs. June 2025)

Market Benchmark (EVOO Bulk)Current Price (June 2026)Historical Price (June 2025)Year-over-Year Change
Spain (Jaén Baseline)€3.73/kg€8.20/kg↓ −54.5%
Italy (Bari Bulk)€5.77/kg€9.10/kg↓ −36.6%
Greece (Chania Average)€3.93/kg€6.90/kg↓ −43.0%
Tunisia (Sfax Export)€3.93/kg€6.50/kg↓ −39.5%
Portugal (Alentejo)€3.95/kg€6.30/kg↓ −37.3%
Global Benchmark (IMF/FRED Jun 2026)~$6,198/tonne~$9,200/tonne↓ −32.6%

Q3 2026 Risk Assessment Matrix
Risk FactorImpact LevelMitigation Strategy
Spain 2026/27 Supply Tightening — Season floor confirmed at €3.85/kg; W26 rebound to €3.73/kg; AEMO heat event loss 3–7%; −30%+ flowering fertility; summer recess active High 2025/26 forward window is CLOSED. Initiate 2026/27 forward contract discussions with Spanish cooperatives immediately. September pricing will reflect supply risk fully. Early commitments at current levels represent meaningful value vs Q4 expected prices.
Greece Hand-to-Mouth Cycle Volatility — W25 −26.96% / W26 +48.30% demonstrates extreme procurement cycle swings; summer recess reduces liquidity High Monitor Oleista Greece readings weekly. Position for next Italian pause (likely mid-July) as the re-entry window for Q4 2026 delivery. Set Greek procurement targets at €3.85–€4.00/kg. Avoid panic-buying at weekly peaks.
Tunisia Quota Exhaustion — 9th consecutive year fully allocated; IPR route required for EU-destined volumes High Confirm IPR contractor relationships for H2 2026 volumes immediately. Tunisia at parity with Greece (€3.93/kg) this week — the value proposition is compelling but access requires IPR framework engagement.
Italy Stand-Off Resolution Risk — −19.88% W25 drop suggests capitulation; autumn price recovery likely Medium Italian wholesale prices likely to stabilise above €5.50/kg through summer. Q4 2026 recovery to €6.00+ is the base case as autumn packager demand returns. Italian PDO premium is structural — do not extrapolate the summer correction into 2026/27 pricing assumptions.
Summer Thin-Trading Liquidity Risk — July–August recess suppresses supply across all origins; emergency sourcing expensive Medium All Q3 2026 procurement decisions must be finalised this week. Summer illiquidity premium for spot supply can add €0.30–€0.50/kg to any emergency procurement. Pre-position Q3 stock during this final active week.
Spain Water Stress / 2026/27 Heat Event — Escalating Andalusian temperatures (34–42°C); secondary fruitlet drop risk above 38°C in July Medium Monitor AEMO weekly assessments through July. If cumulative fruitlet loss exceeds 10%, 2026/27 Spanish EVOO forwards will reprice sharply. Irrigation-equipped estates continue to outperform — prioritise certified irrigation-sourced lots in 2026/27 forward contracts.
How to Interpret This Week's Dramatic Double-Reversal
  • The Hand-to-Mouth Italian Cycle: W24 surge → W25 pause → W26 re-entry. This 2–3 week oscillation cycle drives Greek EVOO price volatility. The W26 +48.30% return is not a structural repricing — it is Italian industrial procurement returning after a one-week pause. Expect the next pause at or near €4.10–€4.20/kg, followed by another corrective trough.
  • Spain's Rebound is End-of-Season Normalisation: The W26 +21.92% Spanish rebound reflects the co-op restocking demand that naturally follows season-end clearance. It is not a supply shortage signal for 2025/26 — it confirms that the season stock is effectively cleared and buyers missed the floor. 2026/27 fundamentals drive the forward price from here.
  • Italy's Correction is Seasonal, Not Structural: The −19.88% W25 Italian drop is Italian packagers redirecting procurement before summer recess — not evidence that Italian quality premium has permanently eroded. The PDO/IGP equity, NYIOOC leadership (Mario Solinas 2026 winners include Italy) and ICQRF fraud enforcement all reinforce Italy's structural premium over Greek and Spanish origins.
  • The Four-Way Convergence (€3.73–€3.95) Creates Optionality: Spain (€3.73), Tunisia (€3.93), Greece (€3.93), Portugal (€3.95) — all within €0.22/kg — creates historically unusual blending optionality. Industrial buyers can optimise across four EU and non-EU origins within a minimal price band. This convergence is unlikely to persist beyond summer recess.
Methodology & Data Sources
The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) weekly price data is aggregated from a proprietary network of sources, including:
  • Official Benchmarks: International Olive Council (IOC) and EU DG AGRI dashboards.
  • Market Indices: Oleista.com (last update June 25, 2026 — Spain W26, Greece W26; Italy W25, Portugal/Tunisia W25) · IOC producer price bulletins · POOLred/Mercacei · Olive Oil Times · Wikifarmer · Certified Origins · Tridge · IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price ($6,198/tonne, June 2026).
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Direct reports from regional agricultural cooperatives in Greece, Spain, and Tunisia.
  • Freight Logistics: Aggregated bulk tanker rate trends across key Mediterranean transit corridors.
  • FX Rates: ECB Reference Rates (June 25, 2026). EUR/USD 1.1342 · EUR/GBP 0.8618 · EUR/JPY 183.57 · EUR/AUD 1.635.
  • Polyphenol Data: Published laboratory CoA results and peer-reviewed cultivar studies.
  • Competition Data: NYIOOC 2026 Final Results — Italy: 166 awards. Croatia: 128 (incl. 23 from Zadar County). Greece: 106. USA: 95. Spain: 85. IOC 26th Mario Solinas Award ceremony: June 18, 2026, Madrid.

Note: Prices represent wholesale "ex-works" bulk volumes. Retail shelf prices and specific premium estate pricing may vary significantly based on local certification and packaging costs.

🫒 Producer's Corner
New This Week Resources, deadlines and news curated for olive oil producers every Friday.
🏆
Competition Deadlines
Open Now · Deadline Sep 15, 2026 NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere 2026
Registration open for producers from Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa. Sample deadline: Oct 1, 2026. Judging scheduled for late September 2026 in Uruguay (IOC Mario Solinas 3rd Southern Hemisphere edition linked).
Early Bird opens Oct 2026 Olive Japan 2027
2026 edition closed (801 entries, 29 nations). Early Bird opens mid-October 2026. Use the summer window to prepare samples and secure CoA documentation from your 2025/26 production.
Coming · Q4 2026 NYIOOC Northern Hemisphere 2027 & IOC Mario Solinas 27th Edition
Registration typically opens October 2026. Italy led NYIOOC 2026 with 166 awards; Croatia 2nd at 88.9% award rate. IOC Mario Solinas 2026 winners (Spain, Italy, Tunisia, China) announced June 18. Begin sample selection now from your best 2025/26 lots.
💡 Late June and July is the ideal window to finalise CoA documentation, prepare competition samples, and review QvExtra! certification requirements for your 2025/26 production.
🔬
Lab & Certification News
June 11, 2026 · QvExtra! New QvExtra! Consumer Health Claim Certification
QvExtra! launched a new consumer-facing certification (Olive Oil Times, June 11) designed to help retailers and consumers identify EVOOs meeting EU health claims for antioxidants, cholesterol and cardiovascular health. Intertek, SGS and ONAOO-accredited labs are the principal certification partners. Producers with CoA-confirmed polyphenols above 250 mg/kg should initiate certification discussions before the 2026/27 campaign.
Ongoing · EU Regulation 432/2012 EU Polyphenol Health Claim Threshold — ≥250 mg/kg
QvExtra!'s June 2026 initiative makes EU polyphenol claim documentation even more commercially valuable. Request CoA from your accredited lab (Intertek, SGS, ONAOO-panel approved) before the new harvest. Early-harvest Koroneiki, Arauco and high-phenolic Chetoui routinely exceed 250 mg/kg.
Active · Italy ICQRF Fraud Crackdown — "Operation Mamma Mia" Ongoing
351,600L of mislabelled oil seized (ICQRF annual report, May 2026). Chain-of-custody documentation and batch-level CoA now required by premium importers. Certified producers with Intertek or SGS verification benefit commercially as the fraud crackdown intensifies.
📦
Packaging & Equipment
Week 27 · Market Intelligence Italy's Bulk Price Drop Creates Premium Packaging Advantage
Italian bulk EVOO falls to €5.77/kg (−19.88%), while artisan premium PDO/IGP estates hold above €7.50/kg. The widening gap between Italian industrial bulk and certified premium origins reinforces the value of quality packaging and origin certification as commercial differentiators. Invest in packaging that communicates polyphenol content and CoA availability — the QvExtra! certification gives you a consumer-ready channel.
June–August · Peak Season Tourism Season = Direct Sales Window — Croatia, Greece, Italy
Estate direct sales peak in Croatia (Istria, Zadar), Greece (Crete, Peloponnese) and Italy (Tuscany, Sicily). Bataranni of Sciacca exemplifies how Sicilian boutique estates can leverage premium packaging and family heritage storytelling. Multilingual multilabel packaging with QR-code CoA links delivers maximum ROI during the tourist season.
B2B Wholesale Mediterrolio on Orderchamp & Faire
Members can list on Orderchamp (EU) and Faire (global, 700,000+ retailers). Retail buyers are planning autumn 2026 shelf launches now — submit your listings during the summer window so you are discoverable for September ordering.
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© 2026 Mediterrolio Market Intelligence. The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) is published every Friday. All data sourced from IOC, Oleista (W26 Spain/Greece June 25, W25 Italy/Portugal/Tunisia), Mercacei (POOLred), Olive Oil Times, Wikifarmer, Certified Origins, Tridge, IMF/FRED ($6,198/tonne Jun 2026) and regional field cooperatives. FX rates: ECB June 25, 2026 — EUR/USD 1.1342 · EUR/GBP 0.8618 · EUR/JPY 183.57 · EUR/AUD 1.635.
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