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Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of July 17, 2026

Weekly Intelligence Report
The Mediterrolio Index
Mediterranean Olive Oil Price Index (MOPI) | July 17, 2026
Updated: July 17, 2026
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The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) · July 17, 2026. Spain's three-week rebound has reversed sharply: the national average drops -6.26% over a 10-day window to €3.57/kg (Oleista W29, July 16), erasing the entire gain built since late June and making Spain the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins for the first time this cycle. Tunisia's price is confirmed unchanged at €3.71/kg (ONH W28, freshest reading July 6), meaning Tunisia now trades above Spain — a full reversal of last week's discount story. Greece carries no new Oleista reading for a second consecutive week, holding at €3.83/kg (W28), while Italy remains stalled at €5.77/kg (W25) for a fifth straight week through the deepening summer recess. Portugal is unchanged at €3.95/kg (W27). On tariffs, the picture has shifted materially: as of July 1, 2026 EU-origin olive oil — including Spanish, Greek, Italian and Portuguese EVOO — moved onto the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff ceiling, replacing the 10% Section 122 surcharge; the July 24 expiry of Section 122 therefore no longer affects EU oil, though the European Commission submitted a list including olive oil for carve-out consideration from the 15% ceiling on July 15. Spain's second heatwave, which peaked at 42-44°C and ended July 9, is now estimated to have caused 463 deaths, bringing the cumulative heat-related death toll since mid-May to roughly 1,667; a related wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería killed 13 people and burned some 6,600 hectares. The EUR eased slightly to roughly 1.1424 vs USD (ECB, July 13). Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect.
🎯 Buyer's Signal of the Week
Week of July 13 – July 17, 2026
3 Actionable Moves for This Week
  • 📉 SPAIN'S REBOUND REVERSES SHARPLY — price falls -6.26% in 10 days to €3.57/kg, now cheaper than Tunisia. The three-week firming trend that carried Spain from €3.65/kg to €3.78/kg has fully unwound in the space of one reading (Oleista W29, July 16). Spain now undercuts Tunisia (€3.71), Greece (€3.83) and Portugal (€3.95) — the first time this summer that Spain has been the cheapest bulk-tier origin. Buyers who held off during the €3.78 peak now have a genuine entry point, but should treat the move cautiously: a single-week 6% swing this large in thin summer trading can reverse just as quickly as it appeared.
  • 🇺🇸 EU OLIVE OIL IS NOW LOCKED AT A FLAT 15% US TARIFF — THE JULY 24 SECTION 122 DEADLINE NO LONGER APPLIES TO EU OIL. Since July 1, 2026, Spanish, Greek, Italian and Portuguese EVOO entering the US pay the EU-US trade deal's all-inclusive 15% ceiling rather than the 10% Section 122 surcharge. Buyers who were modeling a potential tariff drop on July 24 should stop — that scenario applies to non-EU origins (Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco), not the EU. Separately, Brussels submitted a list including olive oil among roughly €150bn of goods it wants carved out of the 15% ceiling (July 15); this is a negotiation, not a decision, and worth monitoring rather than pricing in.
  • 🔥 HEATWAVE AFTERMATH: DEATH TOLL NEARS 1,700, ALMERÍA WILDFIRE TOLL FINALISED AT 13 — BUT CONDITIONS ARE EASING. Spain's second heatwave (July 5-9) is now estimated to have caused 463 deaths, on top of roughly 1,000 in June, bringing the cumulative toll since mid-May to about 1,667. A wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería killed 13 people and burned ~6,600 hectares. Temperatures have moderated somewhat since July 9, but the compounding stress on rain-fed Andalusian groves keeps 2026/27 forward-contract conversations the priority, irrespective of this week's spot-price pullback.
⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 29
🇬🇷 Kontias, Lemnos, North Aegean, Greece · Family Estate Since 2007 · Koroneiki, Kothreiki, Adramyttini & Throumbolia
Founded by Tasis and Rena Laskaridis, Ktima Olon ("Olon Estate") was the first olive grove on the island of Lemnos, planted from scratch in 2007 after the couple relocated from Athens with no prior agricultural background. What began as 300 trees across three varieties has grown into 1,850 certified-organic trees, including the rare Throumbolia. Olives are hand-harvested in October and pressed within hours at the estate's own cold-press mill, producing an unfiltered, high-polyphenol extra virgin oil that meets the EU's Regulation 432/2012 health-claim threshold. The estate is BIO-certified and has picked up Gold at both the Athena and London International Olive Oil Competitions — a small-batch, single-island story that has inspired other Lemnos growers to follow its lead.
📰 Industry News This Week
Trade Policy · EU-US Deal · July 2026
EU-origin olive oil confirmed under the flat 15% US tariff ceiling; Brussels seeks carve-outs. The EU-US trade deal's implementing regulations, adopted by the Council on June 25 and effective July 1, moved EU goods — including olive oil — off the 10% Section 122 surcharge onto an all-inclusive 15% ceiling with no stacking. On July 15, the European Commission submitted a list covering roughly €150bn of EU exports, including olive oil, wine and Roquefort cheese, that it wants exempted from the 15% rate. Washington has not committed to any exemptions; treat this as a live negotiation, not a pending price change.
Weather & Wildfire · Spain · July 2026
Second heatwave toll rises to 463 deaths; Almería wildfire toll finalised at 13. Spain's Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) now links 463 deaths to the July 5-9 heatwave — deadlier than June's initial event — bringing the cumulative heat-related toll since mid-May to roughly 1,667. A separate wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería, ignited July 9 by a fallen power line, killed 13 people and burned approximately 6,600 hectares before being brought under control.
Price Action · Spain/Tunisia
Spain's rebound erased in a single week; Tunisia regains the discount position. Oleista's W29 (July 16) reading shows Spanish EVOO falling to €3.57/kg from €3.78/kg, a -6.26% move over 10 days that undoes three consecutive weeks of gains. Tunisia's confirmed €3.71/kg reading now sits above Spain, flipping the EU/non-EU discount dynamic that had defined the market since late June.
Production Rankings · Tunisia/Italy
Tunisia's overtake of Italy as world No. 2 producer continues to reshape sourcing conversations. With Tunisian 2025/26 output on track for 380,000-400,000 tonnes against roughly 300,000 tonnes in Italy, buyers are increasingly treating Tunisian bulk as a structural alternative rather than a temporary discount play, even as this week's spot pricing puts it temporarily above Spain.
Weekly Producer Prices (At Source)
Region / Country Extra Virgin (EVOO) Virgin (VOO) Trend
Spain (National · Oleista W29, July 16) €3.463 – €3.677/kg · avg €3.57 €3.123 – €3.317/kg · avg €3.22 ↓ -6.26% / 10 days · Three-week rebound reverses sharply
Italy (National · Oleista W25 — no new reading, 5th week) €5.60 – €5.93/kg · avg €5.77 €3.50/kg ↔ Unchanged · Reference increasingly stale through summer recess
Greece (National · Oleista W28 — no new reading, 2nd week) €3.70 – €3.95/kg · avg €3.83 €2.87/kg ↔ Holding · Italian blenders' pause now three-plus weeks old
Tunisia (Export · ONH · W28, July 6) €3.58 – €3.84/kg · avg €3.71 €2.68/kg (Lampant, July 12) ↑ Confirmed unchanged · Now trades above Spain
Croatia (Istria/Dalmatia) €13.50 – €16.00/kg (Istria) · €10.00–€13.00/kg (Dalmatia) ↔ Boutique · Peak tourism season direct sales active
Portugal (National · Oleista W27, June 29) €3.80 – €4.10/kg · avg €3.95 €3.30/kg ↔ Unchanged · Clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group widens further
Turkey (Export · Izmir · W13, stale) €4.20 – €4.60/kg · avg €4.39 €3.26/kg ↔ No fresh reading · Now trades above every EU origin except Portugal
Morocco (Export · Fès-Meknès) €4.00 – €4.30/kg ↔ Plentiful 2025/26 crop · Dam levels near 45%
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📈 12-Month EVOO Price History (€/kg)
Wholesale EVOO bulk prices at source (€/kg), monthly midpoints Aug 2025 → Jul 2026. Sources: IOC, POOLred/Mercacei, Oleista. Jul 2026 reflects W29 (Spain, July 16) and latest available (Italy W25, Greece W28, Tunisia W28) data.
Market Summary & Forecasts

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market delivered its sharpest reversal of the summer this week. Spain's national average fell -6.26% over a 10-day window to €3.57/kg (W29, Oleista July 16), completely unwinding the three-week firming trend that had carried the market from a late-June floor of €3.65/kg up to €3.78/kg. The move flips the competitive landscape: Spain is now the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI, trading below Tunisia (€3.71/kg, confirmed unchanged W28), Greece (€3.83/kg, stale for a second week) and Portugal (€3.95/kg, stale). Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a fifth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) as the summer stand-down deepens further. On the policy side, the tariff picture is now clearer than it has been all summer: EU-origin oil is locked onto the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1, decoupling it entirely from the July 24 Section 122 sunset that still governs non-EU origins pending a Section 301 replacement. The EUR eased marginally to roughly 1.1424 vs USD (ECB, July 13). Spain's compounding heat and wildfire toll — now approaching 1,700 deaths since mid-May, plus a 13-fatality wildfire near Almería — continues to frame the 2026/27 supply-risk narrative even as this week's spot price fell. Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect, and single-week swings of this magnitude should be treated with appropriate caution.

Rebound Reverses
Spain
€3.57/kg · W29 -6.26%/10d
Discount Flips
Tunisia
€3.71/kg · now above Spain
Holding, Stale 2nd Week
Greece
€3.83/kg · Italian pause extends
Stale 5th Week
Italy
€5.77/kg · deep summer recess
Confirmed Ceiling
Portugal
€3.95/kg · unchanged
🛒 Retail Price Gap Tracker

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

🇩🇪 Germany (€/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W29)≈ €4.04/L
Lidl / Aldi private label€7.50–€8.00/L
Rewe / Bertolli brand€9.00–€12.00/L
Discounter margin+86–98%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (£/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W29)≈ £3.34/L
Lidl Primadonna (500ml)£9.98/L equiv.
Tesco / Sainsbury's own£10–£14/L
Discounter margin+199%
🇺🇸 United States ($/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, +15% EU deal tariff)≈ $4.69/L
Trader Joe's 1L EVOO$11.00/L
Premium / organic brands$18–$34/L
Supermarket margin+135%
💡 Key insight (Week 29): Spain's drop to €3.57/kg — now -56.5% below July 2025 (€8.20/kg) — has widened the gap to supermarket shelf prices even further, since retail rarely repricing within the same week as a wholesale move. Tunisia's unchanged €3.71/kg means it now costs more than Spain for the first time this cycle. On the US side, the landed-cost calculation now reflects the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling rather than the old 10% Section 122 surcharge — a permanent structural change, not a temporary one that will lapse on July 24.
💱 MOPI FX Impact Calculator

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of July 13, 2026 (ECB reference).

Show in:

Mid-market rates ECB July 13 2026: EUR/USD 1.1424 · EUR/GBP 0.8533 · EUR/JPY ≈186.00 · EUR/AUD ≈1.638. Verify with your bank for transactional use.

☀️ Weather & Agronomic Conditions

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

🇪🇸 Andalusia, Spain
🔥
Temperature
33–38°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Growth / Recovering From Severe Stress ⚠️
🚨 Heatwave Eased, Aftermath Continues: The second heatwave (July 5-9), which peaked at 42-44°C, has broken, with daytime highs now back to a still-hot but more typical 33-38°C. Spain's MoMo system now links 463 deaths to that heatwave alone, on top of roughly 1,000 in June — a cumulative toll near 1,667 since mid-May. A wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería (July 9) killed 13 people and burned ~6,600 hectares. Rain-fed groves remain under cumulative water stress from both events; irrigation-equipped estates continue to cope better. Combined with the confirmed 3-7% fruitlet loss from June and structural -30%+ flowering fertility, 2026/27 Spanish supply risk remains elevated even as this week's spot price fell sharply.
🇮🇹 Apulia, Italy
☀️
Temperature
32–35°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Stable, Typical Mid-Summer Heat: Apulia holds at typical seasonal levels (32-35°C, dry), with active fruit growth continuing on a positive trajectory. No new Oleista Italian reading for a fifth straight week — bulk prices hold at €5.77/kg through the deepening summer stand-down. Italy's 2025/26 production recovery (~300,000 tonnes nationally, +30% YoY) continues to underpin Xylella-recovery optimism ahead of autumn.
🇬🇷 Peloponnese & Crete
☀️
Temperature
32–34°C
Rainfall
Dry, rainless
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Hot and Dry, Steady Conditions: Peloponnese and Crete remain in typical rainless mid-summer conditions (32-34°C). Koroneiki fruitlet retention remains excellent. The stale W28 reading (€3.83/kg, second week without an update) reflects the ongoing Italian blender pause rather than any change in crop outlook; Messenia and Laconia Q4 2026 allocations continue to thin.
🇹🇷 Izmir Region, Turkey
☀️
Temperature
31–35°C
Rainfall
Mostly dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Favourable: Izmir remains under stable, hot-but-typical July conditions. Ayvalık and Memecik variety groves continue excellent active fruit development. No fresh Oleista reading keeps Turkey at €4.39/kg — now above every EU origin except Portugal following Spain's pullback.
🇹🇳 Sfax & Sahel, Tunisia
☀️
Temperature
33–37°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Normal Peak-Summer Conditions: Sfax and Sahel under typical seasonal heat (33-37°C, dry, breezy). Fruit development proceeding normally. Tunisia's confirmed €3.71/kg reading now trades above Spain for the first time this cycle. EU duty-free quota (56,700t) remains fully allocated for the 9th consecutive year; IPR route active for residual export volumes.
🇲🇦 Fès-Meknès & Marrakech
Temperature
29–34°C
Rainfall
Dry / mild
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Positive Conditions: Morocco's national dam reservoirs continue trending near 45% of capacity. Fruit development proceeding well in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota status continues to offer supply-chain diversification appeal for buyers seeking price certainty outside Mediterranean quota dynamics.
🇭🇷 Istria & Dalmatia, Croatia
☀️
Temperature
27–32°C
Rainfall
Rare
Stage
Fruit Growth
✅ Peak Tourism Season: Croatian Adriatic remains in full peak summer tourist season — the primary commercial window for direct-to-visitor estate sales. Fruit growth proceeding under favourable, increasingly dry conditions. Boutique pricing (€13.50-€16.00/kg Istria, €10.00-€13.00/kg Dalmatia) stays detached from bulk-tier dynamics.
🇵🇹 Alentejo & Trás-os-Montes
Temperature
29–35°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Early-to-Mid Fruit Growth
✅ Warming, Recovery on Track: Portugal continues under warmer, dry fruit growth conditions. At €3.95/kg, unchanged for a third week, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group — now by an even wider margin following Spain's pullback. The January 2026 VAT cut to 6% on mainland olive oil production continues to support grower margins.
📌 Phenological note (Week of July 13 – 17, 2026): Spain's second heatwave has broken, but the compounding health and agronomic toll — nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths and a 13-fatality wildfire since mid-May — keeps rain-fed groves under elevated stress. Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Croatia remain in active/favourable fruit growth under typical, dry mid-summer heat. Tunisia and Morocco are in normal fruit development. Portugal is in early-to-mid fruit growth with a warming trend. Spain's sharp price reversal and the flip of the Spain–Tunisia discount are the two defining commercial threads of Week 29.
⚖️ MOPI Country Comparison Tool

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 29, July 17, 2026.

Analysis by Country
🇬🇷 Greece

Greece carries no new Oleista reading for a second consecutive week, holding at €3.83/kg — a stale print that nonetheless now makes Greece the second-cheapest EU origin behind Spain's reversal, and slightly above Tunisia. Italian industrial blenders remain in pause mode, extending a hand-to-mouth digestion period now running over three weeks. Allocations of Q4 2026 Messenia and Laconia Koroneiki continue to shrink as the summer recess deepens. With Spain's sharp fall this week, the three-origin price cluster that had tightened to €0.12/kg has widened again, putting Greece at a modest premium to both Spain and Tunisia.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Peloponnese (Messenia/Laconia)€3.75 – €4.05/kg
Crete (Chania/Heraklion)€3.65 – €3.95/kg
Lesbos & Aegean Islands€3.55 – €3.85/kg
Premium Organic / Single Estate (Mani, Lemnos)€4.70 – €5.30/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Italian Buying Wave Pause Extends Further: A second consecutive week without a fresh Oleista reading and no sign of an Italian re-entry surge — now the longest gap of the current hand-to-mouth cycle since May.
  • Relative Position Shifts With Spain's Fall: At a stale €3.83/kg, Greece now sits above both Spain (€3.57) and Tunisia (€3.71) — the opposite of last week's picture, purely because Spain moved rather than because Greece did.
  • Lemnos in the Spotlight: This week's Gold Member Spotlight, Ktima Olon, highlights the North Aegean's growing reputation for small-estate, hand-harvested, high-polyphenol EVOO — a category increasingly featured in Berlin GOOA and Athena IOOC results.
🇮🇹 Italy

Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a fifth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — a reference that is now firmly a lagging indicator rather than a live price. With Italian industrial blenders' attention still focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic mill activity remains minimal. The Italy-Greece spread stands at €1.94/kg, comfortably profitable for blenders once trading resumes. Tunisia's formal overtake of Italy as the world's second-largest olive oil producer continues to reshape structural sourcing conversations even as this week's spot moves were driven by Spain and Tunisia rather than Italy.

Region / Prestige CategoryWholesale EVOO Price Range
Apulia (Bari/Foggia – Bulk Base)€5.60 – €5.93/kg
Sicily (Val di Mazara / PDO Bulk)€6.00 – €6.35/kg
Tuscany / Umbria (Premium IGP/PDO)€7.50 – €8.50/kg
Calabria (Commercial EVOO Blend Base)€5.50 – €5.90/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Reference Price Now Five Weeks Stale: With no fresh Oleista reading since W25, €5.77/kg carries meaningfully less signal value heading into autumn. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through summer, but the true current level is genuinely uncertain.
  • US Tariff Clarity Removes One Variable: Italian EVOO, like all EU origins, is now confirmed on the flat 15% US tariff ceiling since July 1 — removing the uncertainty around the July 24 Section 122 sunset for Italian exporters specifically.
  • Attica and Aegean Estate Producers in Focus: This week's Gold Spotlight, Ktima Olon of Lemnos, reflects the same small-batch, hand-harvested tradition prized among Italy's best artisan producers heading into autumn selling.
🇪🇸 Spain

Spain's wholesale market fell sharply this week to €3.57/kg (W29, Oleista July 16, -6.26% on a 10-day basis) — a reversal that completely erases the three-week rebound built between late June and early July. Spain is now the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI, undercutting Tunisia for the first time this cycle. The move comes as Andalusia's second heatwave has broken (ending July 9) and temperatures have moderated to a still-hot but more typical 33-38°C, though the health and agronomic toll from the June-July heat spells — now near 1,667 deaths — and a 13-fatality wildfire near Almería continue to frame 2026/27 supply-risk conversations.

Agricultural HubWholesale EVOO Price Range
Jaén (Principal Co-op Market Baseline)€3.46 – €3.90/kg
Andalusia (Regional avg, W28)€3.65/kg (sub-regional, unchanged)
Catalonia (Siurana / Premium Arbequina)€4.10 – €4.50/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Three-Week Rebound Fully Erased: Spain's W29 reading wipes out the entire gain from the late-June floor, with the -6.26% 10-day move among the sharpest single-week swings recorded by the MOPI this year.
  • Heatwave Breaks, Aftermath Continues: Daytime highs have eased to 33-38°C from the 42-44°C peak of early July, but Spain's MoMo system now links 463 deaths to the second heatwave alone (463 on top of ~1,000 in June), and a wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería killed 13 people and burned ~6,600 hectares.
  • US Tariff Question Resolved for Spain: Spanish EVOO is now confirmed on the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1 — a permanent structural change, not the temporary 10% Section 122 rate that expires July 24. Buyers should stop modeling a July 24 tariff drop for Spanish oil.
🇵🇹 Portugal

Portugal holds unchanged at €3.95/kg for a third straight week (W27, June 29 reading carried forward). With Spain's fall to €3.57/kg, Tunisia at €3.71/kg and Greece at €3.83/kg, Portugal is now the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group by a wider margin than at any point this summer — €0.12-€0.38/kg above its nearest peers. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Spain, then Tunisia, then Greece, with Portugal remaining the most expensive by a growing margin.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Alentejo (Super-Intensive / Modern Estates)€3.80 – €4.05/kg
Trás-os-Montes (Traditional Mountain Groves)€4.10 – €4.45/kg
Centro / Ribatejo (Blended Commercial Base)€3.90 – €4.15/kg
🇹🇷 Turkey

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update this week). With Spain's sharp fall, Turkey now trades above every EU origin except Portugal — a notable shift from earlier in the summer when Turkey was consistently the priciest of the group. Izmir continues under stable, favourable 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook.

🇲🇦 Morocco

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains near 45% of national capacity. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest, and its position outside the EU-US deal's 15% ceiling keeps its US landed-cost profile a separate calculation for American buyers.

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Tunisia's confirmed reading (W28, July 6 update) holds at €3.71/kg — unchanged in absolute terms, but now the more expensive of the Spain-Tunisia pair for the first time this cycle after Spain's sharp fall. This week's flip in the discount dynamic is a Spain-driven move rather than a Tunisian one: Tunisia's fundamentals — the fully exhausted duty-free quota for a 9th consecutive year, active IPR routing, and its structural overtake of Italy in global production rankings — remain unchanged. Blenders now have a modest but real reason to look toward Spain rather than Tunisia for the cheapest EU-adjacent bulk oil this week.

🇭🇷 Croatia

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Peak summer tourist season remains fully active — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers, with direct-to-visitor sales continuing to drive revenue ahead of the autumn competition cycle.

Producing RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Istria Peninsula (Ultra-Premium / High Polyphenol)€13.50 – €16.00/kg
Zadar / Northern Dalmatia (Boutique Cooperatives)€11.00 – €13.00/kg
Southern Dalmatia & Islands (Traditional Hand-Picked)€10.00 – €12.50/kg
🧬 Polyphenol & Quality Profile Index

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s consumer certification (launched June 2026) keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

EU Health Claim (Regulation 432/2012) + QvExtra! 2026 Certification: An olive oil may carry the claim "olive oil polyphenols contribute to the protection of blood lipids from oxidative stress" if it contains ≥250 mg/kg of hydroxytyrosol and its derivatives. QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification provides a consumer-facing channel to communicate these claims — a commercial differentiator for high-phenolic producers. Always request the Certificate of Analysis (CoA).
🌍 Global Producers — Beyond the Mediterranean

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of July 17, 2026.

Middle East & North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria

Algeria's projected 2025/26 output of roughly 150,000 tonnes against average domestic consumption of ~81,000 tonnes continues to imply a meaningful exportable surplus, yet actual exports remain a fraction of that potential — only around 1,000-1,200 tonnes shipped in the strongest recent seasons, roughly 1% of production. French imports from Algeria have nonetheless been growing at a 67% annual rate, reaching 735 tonnes in 2024, as organic certification, GlobalGAP and EU phytosanitary documentation gradually fall into place. First larger-scale EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Region / Grade Wholesale Price Range Notes
Kabylie Region (Traditional)€5.50 – €7.00/kgPremium mountain-grown. Export documentation gradually maturing.
Industrial / Bulk (National)€4.20 – €5.50/kgLarge exportable surplus theoretically available; export infrastructure remains the binding constraint.
🇸🇾 Syria

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country having attended the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

New World Producers
🇦🇷 Argentina

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open. Export values remain strong year-on-year, though rising domestic production costs are an emerging watch item for margins heading into the next planting cycle. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. The falling peso continues to make USD-denominated exports competitive.

🇦🇺 Australia

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. National production is holding near 20,000–21,000 tonnes — the second-highest level since 2021/22 — while exports have climbed to their strongest point in three years as buyers diversify beyond Europe. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea.

🇺🇸 United States (California)

With the EU-US trade deal now confirmed, EU olive oil pays a flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff since July 1, 2026 — up from the interim 10% Section 122 rate, but permanent and no longer subject to the July 24 sunset. This modestly narrows the competitive gap that had favoured California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment since early 2026, though California's 15%+ price premium over EU bulk oil remains substantial. EUR/USD easing slightly to roughly 1.1424 (from 1.1440 the week before) marginally lowers the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Global Production Context — MOPI Reference Table

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season. Global production: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Country Export Share EVOO Price Tier (July 2026) Harvest Season
🇩🇿 AlgeriaEmerging (<0.1%)€4.20–€7.00/kgOct – Jan
🇸🇾 SyriaRecovery phase$4.80–$5.30/kgOct – Dec
🇦🇷 Argentina~1.84% (strong YoY value)$3.80–$11.00/kgApr – Jun (harvest complete)
🇨🇱 Chile~1.00%$4.00–$8.70/kgApr – Jun (harvest complete)
🇦🇺 Australia<0.5% (3-yr export high)AUD 7–18/kgMar – Jun (harvest complete)
🇺🇸 USA (California)~0.51%$8.00–$15.00/kgOct – Jan

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months. US tariff figures for EU origins now reflect the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, effective since July 1, 2026 — not the Section 122 10% rate, which no longer applies to EU goods.

🧮 MOPI Delivered Cost Calculator

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 29, July 17, 2026. Note: EU-origin oil now pays the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff (effective since July 1, 2026); the Section 122 10% rate expiring July 24 applies only to non-EU origins pending a Section 301 replacement.

Strategic Market Insights & Logistics
📉 Spain's Rebound Reverses Sharply — Three Weeks of Gains Erased in One Reading: The -6.26% 10-day move to €3.57/kg is among the sharpest single-week swings the MOPI has tracked this year. Buyers who missed the late-June floor now have a genuine entry point, but the size and speed of the move — in thin summer trading — warrants confirmation before committing to large forward volumes at this level.
⚖️ Tunisia Regains the Discount Position — Purely Because Spain Moved: Tunisia's €3.71/kg reading is unchanged from last week, but Spain's fall means Tunisia is now the pricier of the pair for the first time this cycle. Blenders who shifted sourcing toward Tunisia during the earlier discount window should reassess allocation ratios now that Spain is again the cheaper EU-adjacent option.
🇺🇸 EU Olive Oil Locked at a Flat 15% US Tariff — The July 24 Deadline No Longer Applies: Since July 1, 2026, Spanish, Greek, Italian and Portuguese EVOO pay the EU-US trade deal's all-inclusive 15% ceiling, decoupled entirely from the Section 122 sunset. Non-EU origins (Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco) remain on the 10% Section 122 rate until it expires July 24, with USTR's proposed Section 301 replacement (12.5% on 46 countries, due by July 20) the key variable to watch for those origins specifically.
🔥 Heatwave Breaks, but the Human and Agronomic Toll Keeps Growing: Spain's second heatwave ended July 9, with temperatures easing to a still-hot 33-38°C. But the MoMo system's 463-death estimate for that heatwave, on top of roughly 1,000 in June, brings the cumulative toll since mid-May to approximately 1,667 — and a separate wildfire near Los Gallardos, Almería killed 13 people and burned ~6,600 hectares. The case for locking 2026/27 forward volumes near current levels remains intact even as this week's spot price fell.

Historical Price Context (July 2026 vs. July 2025)

Market Benchmark (EVOO Bulk)Current Price (July 2026)Historical Price (July 2025)Year-over-Year Change
Spain (Jaén Baseline)€3.57/kg€8.20/kg↓ −56.5%
Italy (Bari Bulk)€5.77/kg€9.10/kg↓ −36.6%
Greece (Chania Average)€3.83/kg€6.90/kg↓ −44.5%
Tunisia (Sfax Export)€3.71/kg€6.50/kg↓ −42.9%
Portugal (Alentejo)€3.95/kg€6.30/kg↓ −37.3%
Global Benchmark (IMF/FRED, latest available)~$6,150/tonne~$9,200/tonne↓ −33.2%

July 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.


Q3 2026 Risk Assessment Matrix
Risk FactorImpact LevelMitigation Strategy
Spain Spot-Price Volatility — W29 price falls -6.26%/10d to €3.57/kg after three weeks of gains; single-week swing of this size in thin summer trading raises reversal risk in either direction High Treat the current price as an opportunity but not a confirmed floor. Consider staggered forward commitments rather than a single large lock-in until the next 1-2 Oleista readings confirm direction.
Spain 2026/27 Supply Tightening (Underlying, Unresolved) — second heatwave has broken but caused 463 additional deaths; cumulative heat toll near 1,667 since mid-May; Almería wildfire (13 dead, 6,600 ha) adds to agronomic stress on rain-fed groves High The spot-price fall does not resolve the underlying supply-risk case. Continue accelerating 2026/27 forward contract discussions with Spanish cooperatives; the confirmed 3-7% fruitlet loss and structural -30%+ flowering fertility remain in place regardless of this week's price move.
Spain–Tunisia Discount Flip — Tunisia now trades above Spain for the first time this cycle, purely on Spain's move; the relationship could flip again on the next reading Medium Avoid over-committing blending ratios to either origin based on a single week's relative pricing. Monitor both Oleista and ONH readings weekly before locking H2 2026 volumes.
Tunisia Quota Exhaustion — 9th consecutive year fully allocated; IPR route required for EU-destined volumes High Confirm IPR contractor relationships for H2 2026 volumes immediately, independent of this week's relative price shift versus Spain.
Italy No-Reading Risk — €5.77/kg reference is now five weeks stale; true current level increasingly uncertain through summer recess Medium Treat €5.77/kg as a floor reference rather than a live price. Autumn recovery toward €6.00+/kg remains the base case as packager demand returns; do not extrapolate the summer stand-down into 2026/27 pricing assumptions.
US Tariff Structure Now Bifurcated — EU origins locked at a flat 15% ceiling since July 1 (permanent); non-EU origins (Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco) remain on the 10% Section 122 rate until it expires July 24, with an uncertain Section 301 replacement High Model EU-origin US landed costs using the confirmed 15% rate — do not expect a July 24 change for EU oil. For non-EU origins, model both a reversion-to-MFN scenario and a Section 301 scenario (potentially 12.5%+) before finalising Q3 US-bound contracts.
Summer Thin-Trading Liquidity Risk — July–August recess suppresses supply across all origins; emergency sourcing expensive; amplifies the kind of single-week volatility seen in Spain this week Medium Finalise all Q3 2026 procurement decisions this week where possible. Summer illiquidity premium for spot supply can add €0.30–€0.50/kg to any emergency procurement.
How to Interpret This Week's Reversal
  • Spain's "Uptrend" Was Not as Durable as It Looked: Three weeks of gains unwound in a single reading is a reminder that thin summer volumes can produce moves that look like trends but are not yet confirmed ones.
  • Tunisia's Position Didn't Change — Spain's Did: Nothing about Tunisian fundamentals shifted this week; the discount flip is entirely a function of Spain's price action, worth remembering before drawing conclusions about Tunisian competitiveness.
  • Greece's Stale Reading Now Cuts the Other Way: A second week without an update means Greece's relative position moved passively as Spain fell — Greece is now priced above both Spain and Tunisia despite no change of its own.
  • The Tariff Fog Has Cleared for EU Oil: After months of uncertainty, EU-origin olive oil finally has a known, permanent US tariff rate (15%) rather than a temporary one on a countdown clock. That's a genuine simplification for anyone modeling Q3-Q4 US contracts.
  • Non-EU Origins Are Where the Real Tariff Uncertainty Now Sits: With Section 122 expiring July 24 and its Section 301 replacement still undefined, Tunisia, Turkey and Morocco face more tariff uncertainty over the next two weeks than any EU origin.
Methodology & Data Sources
The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) weekly price data is aggregated from a proprietary network of sources, including:
  • Official Benchmarks: International Olive Council (IOC) and EU DG AGRI dashboards.
  • Market Indices: Oleista.com (last update July 16, 2026 — Spain W29; Greece W28, Italy W25, Tunisia W28, Portugal W27 stale) · IOC producer price bulletins · POOLred/Mercacei · Vesper · Certified Origins · Olive Oil Times · Wikifarmer · agrotypos.gr · IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price (~$6,150/tonne, latest available).
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Direct reports from regional agricultural cooperatives in Greece, Spain, and Tunisia.
  • Freight Logistics: Aggregated bulk tanker rate trends across key Mediterranean transit corridors.
  • FX Rates: ECB Reference Rates (July 13, 2026) and Google Finance. EUR/USD 1.1424 · EUR/GBP 0.8533 · EUR/JPY ≈186.00 · EUR/AUD ≈1.638.
  • Polyphenol Data: Published laboratory CoA results and peer-reviewed cultivar studies.
  • Trade Policy: EU-US trade deal implementing regulations (Council of the EU, adopted June 25, effective July 1, 2026); Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 (effective Feb 24 – expires July 24, 2026 for non-EU origins).
  • Competition & Institutional Data: IOC 123rd Council of Members and 66th Advisory Committee, Lisbon, June 29-30, 2026. Second Olive Oil World Congress, Lisbon, July 2-3, 2026.

Note: Prices represent wholesale "ex-works" bulk volumes. Retail shelf prices and specific premium estate pricing may vary significantly based on local certification and packaging costs. Where a source has not published a new reading this week, the most recent verified figure is carried forward and flagged accordingly.

🫒 Producer's Corner
New This Week Resources, deadlines and news curated for olive oil producers every Friday.
🏆
Competition Deadlines
Two Weeks Left · Deadline July 31, 2026 Berlin GOOA Southern Hemisphere 2026
Entries for the Berlin Global Olive Oil Awards' Southern Hemisphere edition close July 31, 2026. Producers registered by the deadline receive results by September 15, 2026 — a fast turnaround well suited to autumn 2026 shelf launches.
Ongoing · Awards Being Announced Terraolivo IOOC — Results Rolling Out
Results from Terraolivo's 2026 edition (samples closed May 15) continue to be announced. Watch for winner lists relevant to your blending and sourcing decisions this quarter.
Open Now · Deadline Sep 1, 2026 NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere 2026
Registration open for producers from Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, with entries due September 1, 2026, linked to the IOC's Southern Hemisphere Mario Solinas edition.
💡 With Berlin GOOA's deadline two weeks away, mid-July is the last comfortable window to finalise CoA documentation and ship Southern Hemisphere samples without rush fees.
🔬
Lab & Certification News
Active · Italy ICQRF ICQRF Inspection Data Shows 23% Irregular Results in Vegetable-Oil Sampling
Italy's central food-fraud inspectorate continues to flag irregular declared-vs-actual content in a meaningful share of vegetable-oil inspections. Chain-of-custody documentation and batch-level CoA remain essential for premium importers heading into new-harvest sourcing.
Effective Jul 1, 2026 · EU-US Deal Certificate-of-Origin Checks Tighten Under the New 15% US Tariff Ceiling
With EU olive oil now on the EU-US deal's flat 15% rate, US customs brokers are reporting closer scrutiny of country-of-origin documentation for blended oils — a reminder to keep Certificates of Origin current alongside quality CoAs for any US-bound shipment.
Ongoing · EU Regulation 432/2012 EU Polyphenol Health Claim Threshold — ≥250 mg/kg
QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification keeps EU polyphenol claim documentation commercially valuable. Request CoA from your accredited lab (Intertek, SGS, ONAOO-panel approved) before the new harvest. Early-harvest Koroneiki, Arauco and high-phenolic Chetoui routinely exceed 250 mg/kg.
📦
Packaging & Equipment
Logistics · Export Trend Flexitank Adoption Continues Among Leading Exporters
Food-grade flexitanks — carrying up to ~24,000L per 20' container, up to 30% more than ISO tanks — remain the preferred format for exporters reaching Asia, the Americas and the Middle East. EVOH oxygen-barrier variants help preserve organoleptic quality on long-haul routes, relevant for buyers reassessing Spain-Tunisia blending logistics after this week's price flip.
June–August · Peak Season Tourism Season = Direct Sales Window — Croatia, Greece, Italy
Estate direct sales peak in Croatia (Istria, Zadar), Greece (Crete, Peloponnese, Attica, the North Aegean) and Italy (Sicily, Tuscany). This week's Gold Spotlight, Ktima Olon on Lemnos, is a working example of an agritourism-and-olive-oil estate model — visitors can tour the grove and press alongside tasting the oil.
B2B Wholesale Mediterrolio on Orderchamp & Faire
Members can list on Orderchamp (EU) and Faire (global, 700,000+ retailers). Retail buyers are planning autumn 2026 shelf launches now — submit your listings during the summer window so you are discoverable for September ordering.
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© 2026 Mediterrolio Market Intelligence. The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) is published every Friday. All data sourced from IOC, Oleista (W29 Spain July 16; W28 Greece/Tunisia; W25 Italy stale; W27 Portugal stale), Mercacei (POOLred), Vesper, Certified Origins, Olive Oil Times, Wikifarmer, agrotypos.gr, IMF/FRED (~$6,150/tonne, latest available) and regional field cooperatives. FX rates: ECB July 13, 2026 and Google Finance — EUR/USD 1.1424 · EUR/GBP 0.8533 · EUR/JPY ≈186.00 · EUR/AUD ≈1.638.
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