Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of August 7, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 32

San Antonio

🇭🇷 Vodnjan, Istria, Croatia · Estate Since 2008 · Buža Ženska Vodnjanska, Karbonaca, Istarska Bjelica & Leccino

Stancija San Antonio was founded in 2008 in Vodnjan, with the first trees planted the following year — today around 7,000 olive trees, organically grown and BIO-certified. The groves sit roughly 100 metres above sea level and 800 metres from the Adriatic, on land that once formed part of Roman centuriae — the rectangular land grants issued to military commanders in antiquity, whose boundaries stretching from Žminj to Valtura are still visible on satellite imagery today. San Antonio produces a distinctive Istrian blend built around the native Buža ženska vodnjanska and Karbonaca varieties alongside Istarska bjelica and Leccino, and holds both BIO and FDA certification — a working example of the organic, heritage-driven small estates that anchor Mediterrolio's Croatian network.

View Profile →

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market steadied further this week, with Spain's national average ticking up +1.5% to €3.45/kg (W32, Oleista August 6) — its second consecutive weekly gain off the cycle low of €3.40/kg, and still the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI. The week's real news is Greece, which broke a three-week stale streak with a fresh W32 print of €3.77/kg, a modest step down from the carried-forward €3.83/kg it replaces — still above Tunisia (€3.71/kg, W31, confirmed unchanged) but below Portugal's €3.95/kg ceiling, unchanged for a sixth straight week. Italy carries no new Oleista reading for an eighth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) as the summer stand-down reaches its deepest point. On trade policy, the Section 301 forced-labor tariff regime has now moved from "in effect" to fully settled: the short in-transit exemption that shielded goods already at sea when the tariffs took hold on July 24 expired July 28, so Turkey and Morocco's 12.5% duty and Tunisia's clean exit from the 60-economy list are now the baseline, not a transition. EU-origin oil remains untouched, still riding the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1. On weather, the picture has flipped between the two biggest producers: Spain's wildfire season shows a genuine, if fragile, improving trend, with the historic Ávila blaze — the largest in the country's recorded history — now stabilised and the pace of new burning slowing, even as the provisional national tally reaches 194,122 hectares through August 5 (5.8x last year). Greece, which had largely avoided the worst of the summer, is now the acute story, with a deadly wind-driven fire near Athens destroying over 100 homes and a firefighting helicopter collision killing two crew members on August 2. The EUR held near 1.1535 vs USD (ECB, August 3). Summer thin-trading conditions persist but are beginning to loosen as attention turns toward 2026/27 harvest preparation.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of August 3, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 32, August 7, 2026.

Greece's three-week stale streak ends this week: Oleista's W32 reading (August 6) prints a fresh €3.77/kg, a modest step down from the €3.83/kg figure carried forward since W29. The move keeps Greece above both Spain (€3.45) and Tunisia (€3.71) but below Portugal's €3.95/kg ceiling, so the relative order of the four bulk-tier EU/non-EU origins is unchanged even as the absolute levels tighten. The bigger story in Greece this week is not price but wildfire: a deadly, wind-driven fire in the Attica/Boeotia region near Athens destroyed more than 100 homes and killed two firefighting helicopter crew in a mid-air collision on August 2, while fires on Crete and in the Peloponnese in late July killed three firefighters and burned olive groves. None of this has shown up in the fresh price print, and the country's overall 2026 burned area remains below its 20-year average — but the concentration of risk this week is a reminder that Greece's fire season is far from over.

• First Live Price in Three Weeks: The fresh €3.77/kg reading ends the longest stale-data stretch of the current cycle, giving buyers a genuine data point to negotiate against for the first time since mid-July.
• Wildfire Risk, Not Price, Is the Story: A deadly fire near Athens and a fatal helicopter collision on August 2 dominate this week's Greek headlines — a sharp contrast to the calm price action.
• Croatian Estate Story Echoed in the Spotlight: This week's Gold Member Spotlight, San Antonio of Vodnjan, is a Croatian counterpart to the organic, family-run small-estate narrative that has defined several recent Greek spotlights.

Italy carries no new Oleista reading for an eighth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — a reference now well into stale territory as the deepest point of the summer recess passes. With Italian industrial blenders' attention still focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic mill activity remains minimal. The Italy-Greece spread now stands at €2.00/kg, comfortably profitable for blenders once trading resumes. This week's Gold Member Spotlight lands in Croatia rather than Italy, but Italy's own small-estate heritage story — echoed in recent weeks by Puglian producers — continues to define the premium end of the market heading into autumn.

• Reference Price Now Eight Weeks Stale: With no fresh Oleista reading since W25, €5.77/kg carries meaningfully less signal value heading into autumn. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through summer, but the true current level is genuinely uncertain.
• US Tariff Position Unchanged and Settled: Italian EVOO, like all EU origins, remains on the flat 15% US tariff ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the now-fully-binding Section 301 regime, which only governs non-EU origins.
• Spread to Greece Widens Slightly: With Greece's fresh reading ticking down to €3.77/kg, the Italy-Greece spread edges up to €2.00/kg, keeping the arbitrage case for blenders intact once the recess ends.

Spain's wholesale market extended its recovery this week, ticking up +1.5% to €3.45/kg (W32, Oleista August 6) for a second consecutive weekly gain off the recent cycle low of €3.40/kg. Spain remains the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI, still comfortably below Tunisia, Greece and Portugal. The stabilisation comes as Spain's fourth heatwave of the summer, which began July 29, has eased after peaking around August 2-3, and as the country's wildfire season shows a genuine, if fragile, improving trend: the historic Ávila blaze — Spain's largest wildfire on record — has stabilised, the Sierra Oeste Madrid fire (~27,000 ha) is controlled, and the Sierra de Espadán fire in Castellón (~9,500 ha) is calming. MITECO's provisional national tally still reaches 194,122 hectares through August 5 (5.8x last year's same-date figure, with 39 large fires above 500 ha versus 12 in 2025), but the pace of new burning has clearly slowed from three weeks ago.

• Second Straight Week Off the Low: Spain's W32 reading edges up +1.5% to €3.45/kg, building on last week's stabilisation. Two consecutive gains is a firmer signal than one, though the move remains modest.
• Fourth Heatwave Eases, Fire Season Genuinely Improving: AEMET's fourth heatwave of the summer has moderated after peaking August 2-3; the historic Ávila blaze — Spain's largest on record — is now stabilised and the pace of new burning has slowed markedly.
• Still Historically Severe: MITECO's provisional 194,122 ha through August 5 remains 5.8x last year's same-date figure, with 39 large fires versus 12 in 2025 — an improving trend, not a resolved one.
• US Tariff Question Fully Resolved for Spain: Spanish EVOO remains on the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the now-settled Section 301 regime.

Portugal holds unchanged at €3.95/kg for a sixth straight week (W27, June 29 reading carried forward). With Spain at €3.45/kg, Tunisia at €3.71/kg and Greece's fresh print at €3.77/kg, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Spain, then Tunisia, then Greece, with Portugal remaining the most expensive by a wide and stable margin. Portugal continues to feel the edge of Spain's fourth heatwave this week, with highs pushing into the mid-30s in Alentejo.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update this week). Turkey now trades above every EU origin except Portugal following Spain's decline over recent weeks. Izmir continues under stable, favourable 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook, but the sharper development this week is trade policy: the Section 301 in-transit exemption has expired, so Turkey's 12.5% US duty is now fully and permanently binding on new shipments, with no further transitional cushion.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains near 45% of national capacity. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. With the Section 301 grace period now closed, Morocco's 12.5% duty alongside Turkey is a settled cost of doing business in the US market rather than a proposal — a permanent consideration for its US landed-cost profile, even as its non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest elsewhere.

Tunisia's freshest confirmed reading (W31, July 27 update) holds unchanged at €3.71/kg, keeping it the second-cheapest bulk-tier origin behind Spain. The notable development this week is the same as for Turkey and Morocco, but with the opposite sign: the Section 301 in-transit exemption has expired, so Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy forced-labor investigation now translates into a settled, materially lower US landed cost relative to its North African and Turkish counterparts — a genuine structural advantage that is no longer contingent on a pending USTR notice.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. This week's Gold Member Spotlight, San Antonio of Vodnjan, produces a BIO-certified Istrian blend from roughly 7,000 organically grown trees on land tracing back to Roman-era centuriae. Peak summer tourist season remains active but begins narrowing as August advances — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers to drive direct-to-visitor revenue ahead of the autumn wholesale competition cycle.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s June 2026 consumer certification keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of August 7, 2026.

Algeria's projected 2025/26 output of roughly 150,000 tonnes against average domestic consumption of ~81,000 tonnes continues to imply a meaningful exportable surplus, yet actual exports remain a fraction of that potential — only around 1,000-1,200 tonnes shipped in the strongest recent seasons, roughly 1% of production. French imports from Algeria have nonetheless been growing at a 67% annual rate, reaching 735 tonnes in 2024, as organic certification, GlobalGAP and EU phytosanitary documentation gradually fall into place. Algeria is also named among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, and with the in-transit grace period now closed, that duty is a settled — if still minor — consideration for the small but growing US-bound volume. First larger-scale EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country having attended the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open. Export values remain strong year-on-year, though rising domestic production costs are an emerging watch item for margins heading into the next planting cycle. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. Argentina is also on the 60-economy Section 301 list, though the country is not a major EVOO exporter to the US relative to its Asian and European buyers.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. National production is holding near 20,000–21,000 tonnes — the second-highest level since 2021/22 — while exports have climbed to their strongest point in three years as buyers diversify beyond Europe. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea; Australia is also named on the Section 301 list, a minor consideration given the limited scale of its US-bound EVOO trade. Australian producers eyeing the NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere competition have until September 1 to register.

With the EU-US trade deal in place since July 1, EU olive oil pays a flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff, fully insulated from the now-settled Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the tariff transition has permanently split the field: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list means a materially lower US duty, while Turkey and Morocco face a confirmed, no-longer-transitional 12.5% rate — a mixed picture for the competitive gap that has favoured California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment through much of 2026. EUR/USD holding near 1.1535 keeps the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil broadly stable week-on-week. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), set before this summer's Spanish heat and wildfire damage. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set before this summer's Spanish heatwave and wildfire damage; the October aforo will show how much of the projected Spanish recovery holds. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the now fully-binding Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 32, August 7, 2026. Note: Section 301's in-transit exemption expired July 28 — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia now settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate, with no further transitional ambiguity.

Historical Price Context (August 2026 vs. August 2025)

August 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.