Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of September 25, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 40

Corinto

🇬🇷 Lechaion, Corinthia, Greece · Monovarietal Manaki · BIO / EU-USDA Organic · ISO 22000

Corinto produces premium extra virgin olive oil exclusively from the Manaki variety, sourced from its own groves near ancient Corinth and from cooperating local growers. A century of family experience with Manaki now meets modern practice and scientific research at every step — from grove to mill to bottle. Organic-certified (EU/USDA), ISO 22000 and Vegan, with recognition from NYIOOC, OLIVE JAPAN and the London Olive Oil Awards — a fine example of the Peloponnese's distinctive, lesser-known cultivars as the 2026/27 Greek harvest begins.

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The 2026/27 campaign opened this week with its first official number, and it confirmed a comfortable supply picture. The Junta de Andalucía's aforo (September 29) puts Andalusia at 1,261,200 t of oil from 6,849,200 t of mill olives — 23.9% above last season's final 1,017,900 t and 44% above the five-campaign average of 875,800 t. With a little over 300,000 t expected from the rest of Spain and ~374,000 t of carry-in stocks, total Spanish availability approaches 1.9–2.0 Mt before imports. The market's reaction was mild but negative: Spain eases to €3.35/kg (Oleista W40, -1.5%), Greece to €3.68/kg (W40, -1.6%), Italy to €4.75/kg (W39, -1.5%) and Tunisia to €3.53/kg (W39, -2.8%), with Portugal unchanged at €3.51/kg (W38, no update). Portugal is now second-cheapest by just €0.02/kg over Tunisia. Spain's policy response is the new variable: the government will decide in the first half of November whether to trigger the Article 167a withdrawal mechanism, while regions refine their estimates through October. Elsewhere, crops are smaller: Federolio sees Italy ~20% below last season's 325,000 t, and Tunisian producers expect 250,000–300,000 t after a ~500,000 t record. Greek market voices put the opening producer price near €4/kg. Spanish forecaster OliveTerm, cited in the Greek press, sees Spanish EVOO at €3.40–€3.60/kg near term and €3.60–€3.90/kg from the start of the new season to year-end. The euro weakened again to 1.1298 vs USD (ECB, October 1). Our read: with the aforo out of the way, expect soft-to-sideways prints through October as new-crop offers appear; the November 167a decision is the next event capable of putting a floor under Spanish prices.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of October 1, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 40, October 2, 2026.

Spain's national average eases to €3.35/kg (Oleista W40, October 1, -1.5%), with virgin oil at €3.15/kg; the Junta's Andalusian observatory shows EVOO at €3.33/kg (W39). The Junta de Andalucía presented its 2026/27 aforo in Mengíbar (Jaén) on September 29: 1,261,200 t of oil from 6,849,200 t of mill olives. Jaén leads with 575,000 t (45.6% of the region, yield close to 20%), followed by Córdoba with 339,700 t and Seville with 142,000 t. Organic oil is forecast to jump 80.5% to 60,400 t and table olives to rise 9% to 466,037 t. COAG, UPA and ASAJA described the estimate as accurate; UPA Andalucía adds "a little over 300,000 t" for the rest of Spain, and ASAJA Jaén puts the carry-in at ~374,000 t. Farm groups argue prices should recover toward €5/kg to cover the costs of traditional groves, and are pressing for the Article 167a withdrawal mechanism, which the Ministry will decide on in the first half of November.

• Aforo Lands in the Middle: 1.26 Mt for Andalusia (+23.9% YoY, +44% vs the five-campaign average) implies a national crop of roughly 1.55–1.6 Mt — above the 1.4–1.5 Mt sector talk, close to the IOC's June figure.
• Article 167a Decision in November: Under the draft 2026/27 marketing rule, withdrawal is triggered when supply exceeds 120% of the six-campaign average; mills would retain a share of oil of any grade, which could be diverted to non-food uses. Regions have all of October to refine their estimates first.
• Data Correction: Oleista has recalculated anomalous Spanish EVOO readings published on September 21–23 and 27–29 (up to €4.65/kg) after an error at one of its sources. The MOPI series uses the corrected figures.

Oleista has not published a new Portuguese reading this week, so Portugal is carried forward at €3.51/kg (W38, September 14), with virgin oil at €3.30/kg. Because every other tracked origin eased, Portugal now sits €0.16/kg above Spain and just €0.02/kg below Tunisia. Alentejo's irrigated hedgerow groves move into harvest in early October, so the next print should reflect the first new-crop offers — and, given Spain's direction after the aforo, those are more likely to come in lower than higher.

• Stale Print, Price Off Spain: With no fresh reading for nearly three weeks, buyers should benchmark Portuguese offers against Spain's €3.35/kg rather than the carried-forward €3.51/kg.
• Harvest Imminent: Alentejo super-intensive groves start picking in early October; new-crop quotations will set the next reading.

Italy's Oleista reading eases for a second week to €4.75/kg (W39, -1.5%), while virgin oil drops more sharply to €3.20/kg (-8.6%). ISMEA quoted EVOO at €4.55/kg on the Bari market in late August, against more than €9/kg twelve months earlier. The 2026/27 campaign is an off-year: Federolio expects output around 20% below last season's 325,000 t, and Coldiretti Puglia reports regional falls of 20–40%. At the same time, the market is well stocked — 233,377 t of olive oils were held on July 31 (ICQRF, +43.9% YoY), including 108,299 t of Italian EVOO (+139.6%). Heat advanced ripening, so harvesting and milling started in the second half of September in some areas, with good quality expected. At Terra Madre (September 24), ISMEA noted that Italian EVOO still trades above Spain, Greece and Tunisia despite the 2026 price decline.

• Smaller Crop, Heavy Stocks: A ~20% lower harvest is being offset by more than double last year's stock of Italian EVOO — a key reason Italian prices continue to slip despite the off-year.
• Origin Documentation Still in Focus: With the Italy–Spain gap at €1.40/kg, CoA and PDO/IGP verification remain essential procurement checks for Italian-labelled oil.

Greece eases to €3.68/kg (Oleista W40, -1.6%), with virgin oil at €2.60/kg and lampante at €2.17/kg, as the 2026/27 harvest gets going. Market estimates published in the Greek press this week put the opening producer price for good-quality EVOO at €3.80–€4.20/kg (about €4 on average), within a wider €3.60–€4.40 range depending on region, acidity and volume — equivalent to roughly €3.50–€3.85 per litre at farm gate. The same reports cite a Mediterranean crop of 3.0–3.2 Mt. Manolis Giannoulis, president of the Interprofessional Olive Oil Organisation, says supermarket EVOO has normalised at around €8.5/L, while branded previous-crop oil averages €7/L. At new-crop producer prices, a traditional 17 kg tin is worth roughly €65–€71 before packing and margins. The first clear mill data are expected through October.

• New-Crop Talk Above Current Prints: The ~€4/kg new-crop expectation sits above Oleista's €3.68/kg, reflecting a premium for fresh early-harvest oil and grower cost pressure.
• Gold Spotlight Turns to Corinthia: This week's Gold Member feature, Corinto, showcases monovarietal Manaki — one of the Peloponnese's lesser-known cultivars — with organic and ISO 22000 certification.

Tunisia posts the week's largest fall, easing to €3.53/kg (Oleista W39, September 21, -2.8%), with lampante at €2.53/kg (September 27). ONAGRI data show record exports of 381,200 t in November 2025–August 2026 (+50.8%), worth 4,780.4 million dinars (+41.2%); bulk accounted for 85.5% of volume, while packaged exports rose 48.7% to 55,400 t. Organic exports reached 45,550 t in January–August (+18.5%), led by Italy (39%), Spain (26%) and the US (23%). For 2026/27, the National Chamber of Olive Producers expects 250,000–300,000 t as the alternate-bearing cycle turns, against ~500,000 t last season; harvest begins in November.

• Prices Falling Into an Off-Year: Old-crop stocks are being cleared at lower prices even as a 40–50% smaller crop is expected; buyers planning Q1 2027 Tunisian volume should keep part of their allocation on spot terms.
• US Tariff Advantage Holds Firm: Ten weeks into Section 301 enforcement, Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list remains the clearest structural cost advantage among North African/Turkish origins.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update) and remains the effective ceiling among bulk-tier origins the MOPI tracks weekly. The Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters' Association (EZZİB) has said early field data point to one of the largest olive harvests in the country's history for 2026/27, with picking starting in October. Its campaign for relief from the 12.5% Section 301 duty enters an eighth week with no public USTR response reported. Exporters face the new campaign after a weak 2025/26: olive and olive oil export revenue fell about 34% to $260 million in November–May.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg as the harvest opens across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. The 12.5% Section 301 duty, now ten weeks into enforcement alongside Turkey's, is a settled cost for US-bound lots. With Spain's crop confirmed at a comfortable level, Moroccan oil competes mainly on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, unchanged on the week. October marks the start of early-harvest picking on Istrian estates for high-phenolic oils, and D8 Adriatic Highway freight routing remains normal seven weeks after the Omiš wildfire. Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result — 128 awards, including 103 Gold, second only to Italy's 166 — remains its strongest quality signal for autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest picking is now under way in Italy, Greece and Croatia, with Spain and Portugal following in October — this is the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of October 2, 2026.

Oleista's W40 print (September 29) holds Lebanon unchanged: EVOO at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain easing, the Lebanese premium widens to €2.77/kg, confirming its role as a specialty origin serving diaspora and Middle Eastern markets rather than a bulk competitor.

The West Bank harvest traditionally opens in early October and runs into November, providing income for around 90,000 families. The 2025 season was among the most difficult on record: a joint donor statement in January 2026 noted that the UN recorded more than 150 settler-violence incidents linked to the harvest across more than 75 villages. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should plan for access disruption and allow flexibility on shipment timing for 2026/27 lots.

Algeria's exportable surplus remains largely untapped, with export infrastructure and certification still the binding constraints as the new harvest approaches. French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now ten weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues at a measured pace as the October harvest begins. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its final weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spain's crop now confirmed at a comfortable level, Argentine bulk exporters face a softer price environment in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro at A$1.6255 (ECB, October 1, from A$1.6146) makes European oil marginally more expensive for Australian importers on the week.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5%. The euro's fall to $1.1298 makes EU-origin oil ~1.0% cheaper for US importers this week, on top of Spain's price dip. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest starting in October.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). USDA (August) forecasts 2026/27 world output at ~3.25 Mt, of which ~2.10 Mt in the EU.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, the Junta de Andalucía's official aforo (September 29) has put Andalusia at 1,261,200 t, with farm groups adding just over 300,000 t for the rest of Spain; Spain's national figure is still being refined by the regions through October. Federolio expects Italy ~20% below last season, and Tunisian producers 250,000–300,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 40, October 2, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now ten weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Early October 2026 vs. Late September 2025)

Spain's September 2025 reference is Poolred's verified late-September 2025 EVOO price (€4,258.89/t for the week to September 26, 2025). Italy's reference is consistent with ISMEA reporting Bari EVOO above €9/kg twelve months before its late-August 2026 quote of €4.55/kg. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.