Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of May 29, 2026

Weekly Intelligence Report
The Mediterrolio Index
Mediterranean Olive Oil Price Index (MOPI) | May 29, 2026
Updated: May 29, 2026

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The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) · May 29, 2026. The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market enters the final week of May at an inflection point. Spain’s EVOO hit a new 5-year low of €3.93/kg (−3.67% in 10 days, Oleista W22), yet the supply narrative is reversing sharply: OliveA confirmed 880,000 tonnes — 70% of the entire 2025/26 crop — already contracted. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering fertility data shows a 37% decline. The window for locking in sub-€4.00 Spanish EVOO is closing faster than buyers anticipated.

🎯 Buyer’s Signal of the Week
Week of May 26–30, 2026
3 Actionable Moves for This Week

• ⚡
  URGENT — Lock Spanish contracts now before June price reversal. OliveA confirmed 880,000 tonnes — nearly 70% of the entire 2025/26 crop — already sold in 7 months. Stocks at campaign lows. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering fertility data: −37%. Spain EVOO at €3.93/kg (5-year low). May–June = peak export window (~21.5% of annual volume). Sign forward contracts now — this entry point won’t repeat.
• 🎯
  OPPORTUNITY — Tunisia: 49 gold medals at Geneva 2026, best quality-per-euro in the Med. Tunisia won 49 gold medals at the European EIOO Competition in Geneva (April 14–16, 2026) — surpassing all nations. 2025/26 harvest: exceptional chemical purity, near-zero acidity, zero organoleptic defects. At €3.90/kg, Tunisian Chetoui-blended EVOO is the best value proposition in the market. EU duty-free quota (56,700t) fully allocated — use IPR framework for continued access.
• 🌿
  QUALITY PLAY — Croatian EVOO: 128 NYIOOC 2026 awards, 2nd in the world — still accessible. Croatia finished 2nd globally at the 2026 NYIOOC (1,021 entries, 29 countries) with 128 awards (103 Gold). Led by Avistria for the 3rd consecutive year. At €13.50–€16.00/kg for Istrian ultra-premium, Croatian boutique EVOO competes directly with Italian PDO oils at the same quality tier — at lower price. Producers are calling for a national branding strategy to capitalise commercially.

📰 Industry News This Week
Supply Warning · SpainOliveA: 880,000t contracted — 70% of 2025/26 season sold in 7 months, stocks at campaign lows. Spain’s olive production association issued its most urgent market signal of the season: nearly the entire commercial surplus has been absorbed in just seven months. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering data: −37% fertility. May–June = ~21.5% of annual Spanish export volume. Buyers who deferred are now entering a tightened supply environment with no low-price buffer remaining.
IOC · PDO/GI WorkshopIOC to host landmark PDO/GI workshop on June 11, 2026 in Madrid. The International Olive Council is organising a free specialised workshop on Protected Designations of Origin and Protected Geographical Indications — covering quality assurance, product differentiation and market development. Open to producers, exporters and cooperatives, online and in person. Registration at internationaloliveoil.org. The IOC also completed a regional organoleptic training course (May 18–22) at ONH headquarters in Sfax, Tunisia.
Croatia · NYIOOC 2026Croatia earns 128 NYIOOC 2026 awards — 2nd in the world — producers call for national branding. Croatia finished 2nd globally at the 2026 NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition (1,021 entries, 29 countries). 128 awards: 103 Gold, 25 Silver. Avistria led the tally for the 3rd consecutive year. Italian producers: 1st (166 awards); Greece: 3rd (106); USA: 4th (95); Spain: 5th (85). Croatian producers are calling for a national branding strategy to leverage this recognition commercially ahead of 2027.
Italy · AntitrustItalian AGCM antitrust probe targets supermarket pricing squeezing olive farmers. Italy’s competition authority is examining how major supermarket chains are offering EVOO at deeply discounted prices — some reportedly below production cost. Coldiretti estimates Italian producers are losing €180–220 million/year in lost margin. The probe outcome (expected Q3 2026) could force shelf price realignment across EU retail and ripple into European private-label contracts.

Weekly Producer Prices (At Source)

📈 12-Month EVOO Price History (€/kg)
All Origins
🇪🇸 Spain
🇮🇹 Italy
🇬🇷 Greece
🇹🇳 Tunisia

Wholesale EVOO bulk prices at source (€/kg), monthly midpoints Jun 2025 → May 2026. Sources: IOC, POOLred/Mercacei, Oleista.

Market Summary & Forecasts

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market enters the final week of May 2026 at an inflection point. Prices continued their downward drift — Spain hit a new 5-year low of €3.93/kg (−3.67% in 10 days, Oleista W22) — but the supply narrative is sharply reversing. OliveA confirmed that 880,000 tonnes — 70% of the entire 2025/26 production — has already been contracted in just 7 months, with stocks at campaign lows. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering data shows a 37% fertility decline. Tunisia’s quality story strengthened: 49 gold medals at Geneva 2026 and a record ONH competition confirm North African EVOO is no longer just a volume play. Croatia’s 128 NYIOOC awards confirm its place among the world’s elite producers for the third consecutive year.

Cheapest Bulk SourceTunisia€3.75 – €3.90/kg
Forward Alert ⚠️Spain70% sold — window closing
Mainstream BenchmarkSpain€3.93/kg — 5yr low
Best Value/QualityTunisia49 Geneva gold medals
Boutique PremiumCroatia128 NYIOOC awards

🛒 Retail Price Gap Tracker

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale “at source” vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

🇩🇪 Germany (€/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed)≈ €4.50/L
Lidl / Aldi private label€7.50–€8.00/L
Rewe / Bertolli brand€9.50–€12.50/L
Discounter margin+67–78%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (£/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed)≈ £3.90/L
Lidl Primadonna (500ml)£9.98/L equiv.
Tesco / Sainsbury’s own£10–£14/L
Discounter margin+156%
🇺🇸 United States ($/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed)≈ $5.20/L
Trader Joe’s 1L EVOO$11.00/L
Premium / organic brands$18–$32/L
Supermarket margin+112%
💡 Key insight (Week 22): Spain hit a 5-year wholesale low of €3.93/kg (−50.3% YoY) yet supermarket shelf prices have declined only 8–15%. The AGCM antitrust probe in Italy is examining exactly this structural gap. With Spain’s forward supply tightening, the window for cheap private-label sourcing is shorter than retailers realise.

💱 MOPI FX Impact Calculator

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of May 24, 2026 (ECB).

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Mid-market rates ECB / Google Finance May 29 2026. Verify with your bank for transactional use.

☀️ Weather & Agronomic Conditions

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2025/26 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

🇪🇸 Andalusia, Spain
☀️
Temperature30–36°C
RainfallDry
StageFruit Set ⚠️
⚠️ Critical Heat Alert: Andalusia has entered fruit set under temperatures of 30–36°C. AccuWeather forecasts highs of 33–40°C for early June. Sustained heat above 38°C during fruit set risks accelerated fruit drop and reduced oil content per olive. Traditional rain-fed Jaén groves are most exposed — irrigated super-intensive estates can buffer this. Key agronomic risk for the 2026/27 harvest.

🇮🇹 Apulia, Italy
🌦️
Temperature22–27°C
RainfallLight showers
StageActive Fruit Set
✅ Excellent Conditions: Southern Italy is experiencing active fruit set under ideal conditions — 22–27°C with partly cloudy skies and occasional light moisture. Coratina and Terra di Bari PDO groves are benefiting. No heat stress risk this week. The Italy–Greece arbitrage (€6.35 vs €4.44) is driving active Italian merchant sourcing in Greece this week.

🇬🇷 Peloponnese & Crete
🌤️
Temperature24–29°C
RainfallStable / dry
StageEarly Fruit Set
✅ Optimal Conditions: The Peloponnese (Kalamata) and Crete are experiencing ideal early fruit set conditions — sunny, dry, 24–29°C. MetOffice confirms stable high pressure over the Aegean with <5% precipitation probability through early June. Irrigated Koroneiki estates are showing strong fruitlet retention. Premium lots tracking toward 500+ mg/kg polyphenols — consistent with Greece's 106 NYIOOC 2026 awards and active Italian buyer demand.
🇹🇷 Izmir Region, Turkey
⛈️
Temperature20–24°C
RainfallConvective showers
StageEarly Fruit Set
✅ Favourable Transition: Izmir records 23–29°C with mainly sunny skies — ideal conditions for early fruit set following a clean flowering phase. Ayvalık and Memecik variety groves are entering fruitlet development under benign conditions. No precipitation risk this week. Positive outlook for Turkish quality in 2026/27.

🇹🇳 Sfax & Sahel, Tunisia
🌤️
Temperature26–29°C
RainfallStable / dry
StagePost-Bloom · Fruit Set
✅ Strong Post-Bloom Conditions: Sfax records 24–27°C with minimal rainfall (17mm total for May) — textbook conditions for post-bloom fruit set. Following the record 380,000–400,000t harvest of 2025/26, early 2026/27 fruitlet development is progressing well. The historic 49 Geneva gold medals confirm this region’s quality trajectory is improving season on season.

🇲🇦 Fès-Meknès & Marrakech
⛅
Temperature22–27°C
RainfallModerate cloud
StageFruit Set
✅ Positive Outlook: Long-term winter precipitation filled primary dams to 45% capacity — a significant improvement after multi-year drought. At fruit set stage, moderate cloud cover and mild temperatures are supporting healthy fruitlet development across the main growing regions.

🇭🇷 Istria & Dalmatia, Croatia
🌤️
Temperature18–24°C
RainfallOccasional showers
StageFull Bloom
⚠️ Monitor Closely: Croatian Istrian and Dalmatian groves are at full bloom — the most weather-sensitive stage. Occasional showers provide beneficial humidity but producers are watching for prolonged wet periods that could impair pollination. Temperatures (18–24°C) are ideal. Boutique producers are tracking conditions day-by-day to optimise their signature early-harvest timing — the quality that earned Croatia 128 NYIOOC 2026 awards.

🇵🇹 Alentejo & Trás-os-Montes
⛅
Temperature20–26°C
RainfallPartly cloudy
StageLate Flowering
✅ Favourable Conditions: Mild temperatures and moderate cloud cover are providing a stable flowering environment for both Alentejo super-intensive estates and traditional Trás-os-Montes mountain groves. Following a season where production dropped ~20% below forecast, the 2025/26 crop is tracking towards a recovery — conditions this week support a healthy fruit set.
📌 Phenological note (Week of May 29, 2026): Spain is now in the critical fruit set stage under elevated temperatures (30–36°C) — the key agronomic risk this week. Italy and Greece are in active/early fruit set under excellent conditions. Tunisia and Morocco are in post-bloom/fruit set. Croatia is at full bloom (monitor closely). Portugal is completing late flowering. All impact assessments are relative to current phenological stage — the same conditions carry opposite implications at different growth phases.
⚖️ MOPI Country Comparison Tool

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access.

Origin A
🇬🇷 Greece (Chania)🇬🇷 Greece (Mani Premium)🇪🇸 Spain (Jaen)🇹🇳 Tunisia (Sfax)🇮🇹 Italy (Bari)🇮🇹 Italy (Tuscany PDO)🇵🇹 Portugal (Alentejo)🇹🇷 Turkey (Izmir)🇲🇦 Morocco🇭🇷 Croatia (Istria)🇦🇷 Argentina (Mendoza)🇦🇺 Australia
Origin B
🇪🇸 Spain (Jaen)🇬🇷 Greece (Chania)🇬🇷 Greece (Mani Premium)🇹🇳 Tunisia (Sfax)🇮🇹 Italy (Bari)🇮🇹 Italy (Tuscany PDO)🇵🇹 Portugal (Alentejo)🇹🇷 Turkey (Izmir)🇲🇦 Morocco🇭🇷 Croatia (Istria)🇦🇷 Argentina (Mendoza)🇦🇺 Australia
Compare →
Analysis by Country
🇬🇷 Greece

The wholesale olive oil market in Greece has settled significantly compared to the record-high spikes of previous seasons. Driven by a solid production recovery in the 2025/2026 harvest (roughly 30% increase in national yield to around 250,000 tonnes), current wholesale prices have stabilized at bulk ex-works levels.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The “Frozen” Market: Greek wholesale trading is experiencing a relatively quiet period. While premium “extra-issimo” oils are sitting tight in storage, international buying interest (particularly from major Italian bottlers) is moving cautiously.
• The Price Gap Protest: A notable price gap between Greek producer prices (€4.30–€5.20) and Italian producer prices (€6.50–€7.50) triggered widespread protests among Greek farmers earlier in the season.
• Quality Over Volume: Irrigated groves in the Peloponnese and Crete are yielding exceptionally low acidity levels (around 0.3° or lower) with strong polyphenol profiles, commanding the absolute top tier of the listed wholesale ranges.

🇮🇹 Italy

Italian wholesale olive oil prices are structurally higher than those in Greece and Spain. While the market has softened from historic highs—dropping from over €9.00/kg into the €6.00–€7.00 range—Italian EVOO continues to command a steep premium due to high domestic demand, lower production volumes, and strict PDO protection.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Buyer Stand-Off: Industrial bottlers in northern Italy are aggressively pushing back against domestic mills trying to keep prices near the €7.00 mark, with cheaper Spanish and Tunisian inventories available at €4.00–€4.50/kg.
• Rising Supply Pressure: Sellers are showing increased willingness to move product, but buyers are purchasing strictly “hand-to-mouth,” keeping wholesale trade volumes uncharacteristically quiet.
• The Blend Dependency: Buying high-quality Greek EVOO at roughly €4.50/kg and bringing it to Italian blending hubs remains a highly profitable trade route, explaining why Italian merchants are heavily active in Greece.

🇪🇸 Spain

Spain is the undisputed heavy hitter of the global olive oil industry, producing roughly half of the world’s supply. Following a massive market correction after consecutive drought-impacted seasons, Spain’s wholesale market has experienced a sharp downward price adjustment to a competitive national average of €4.00–€4.30/kg for EVOO.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• National Quality Breakdown: Virgin Olive Oil (VOO) has settled at €3.30–€3.60/kg. Lampante Oil hovers at €2.95–€3.20/kg as global refinery operations scale back up.
• Evaporated Panic & Normalized Yields: According to POOLred metrics, sellers have dropped asking prices by 15–25% from past peaks to encourage large-scale liquid asset movement.
• Aggressive Export Advantage: Spanish EVOO is roughly 36% less expensive than domestic Italian oil, driving aggressive export campaigns toward Northern Italian industrial bottlers.

🇵🇹 Portugal

Portugal occupies a fascinating spot in the Iberian market. Following a median harvest cycle where production dropped about 20% below initial forecasts, Portuguese wholesale EVOO bulk prices have aligned closely with mid-to-high quality Spanish benchmarks at €4.10–€4.60/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The North African Influx: A major talking point among Portuguese millers is the influx of cheap bulk imports from Tunisia, making it difficult for high-labor traditional northern mills to protect margins.
• Dual-Track Industry: High-tech Alentejo mills absorb corrections down to €4.10 easily via optimized hectare costs, while traditional northern farmers face a standstill in selling activity.

🇹🇷 Turkey

Turkey has fast become an aggressive power player in the Mediterranean bulk trade. After lifting bulk export bans implemented to control domestic inflation, current baseline wholesale prices for Turkish EVOO hover between €4.20–€5.20/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Italian Blending Target: Italian packagers are heavily targeting high-grade Turkish Memecik or Ayvalık oil around the €4.50 mark to stretch out scarcer Italian domestic supplies.
• The Economic Contrast: While the export market runs smoothly in Euros, hyperinflation within Turkey has turned local retail olive oil into an absolute luxury item for everyday domestic citizens.

🇲🇦 Morocco

Morocco’s olive oil sector is experiencing a significant market correction. Plentiful rainfall during critical developmental windows late last year yielded an abundant crop, driving international bulk trading down to par with North African and Spanish baselines.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The Post-Crisis Price Slump: Plentiful precipitation late last year burst the high-price bubble, bringing immense relief to consumers and bulk buyers who faced over 100 MAD per liter in previous seasons.
• The Export Quota Balance: The Moroccan government regulates bulk exports closely to protect domestic supply. Because international prices have softened, the incentive to aggressively dump oil into European streams has cooled.

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Tunisia is currently a dominant disrupter. Following an absolute blockbuster 2025/2026 harvest season—with record yields estimated between 380,000 and 400,000 tonnes—Tunisia has surged forward to challenge Spain as a primary provider of bulk export oil, trading between €3.80–€4.15/kg.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The European Lifeline: The EU duty-free quota (56,700 t/year) was fully allocated for the ninth consecutive year in 2025/26. Remaining volumes are now accessed via the Inward Processing Regime (IPR).
• Bottled vs. Bulk Strategy: Tunisia is executing a long-term push to process, bottle, and brand the oil domestically — and is currently negotiating with the EU to double the duty-free quota to 100,000 tonnes/year.

🇭🇷 Croatia

The wholesale landscape in Croatia defies broader European trends. Operating almost exclusively in a low-volume, boutique tier under 5,000 tonnes annually, Croatia does not trade in industrial bulk tankers, dealing instead in small stainless steel INOX batches handled by premium family estates.

Key Market Dynamics Right Now:

• The “Olive Tourism” Phenomenon: Independent mills find it far more profitable to sell their stock “at the doorstep” to millions of summer tourists or high-end local restaurants rather than entering competitive international markets.
• Award Season Boost: Multiple Croatian producers won medals at the 2026 NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition, reinforcing Istria’s global reputation and supporting the premium price tier.

🧬 Polyphenol & Quality Profile Index

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Click any origin to see full details.

Range (mg/kg)
EU Claim
Key Variety
EU Health Claim (Regulation 432/2012): An olive oil may carry the claim “olive oil polyphenols contribute to the protection of blood lipids from oxidative stress” only if it contains ≥250 mg/kg of hydroxytyrosol and its derivatives. Always request the Certificate of Analysis (CoA).


🌍 Global Producers — Beyond the Mediterranean

While the Mediterranean basin remains the undisputed centre of global olive oil production, a growing number of producers outside the region are gaining market share — particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and the Middle East. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI.

Middle East & North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria

Algeria ranks among the world’s top ten olive oil producers, sitting just behind the major Mediterranean players. The 2025/26 season is shaping up to be a record year, with the IOC projecting output of up to 150,000 tonnes — potentially double the previous season. Domestic consumption averages approximately 81,000 tonnes/year, meaning the record harvest could generate Algeria’s first meaningful exportable surplus in years.

• Emerging Exporter: Algeria exported only ~1,000 tonnes in 2023/24 — minimal on a global scale. However, the record 2025/26 harvest is expected to generate pressure to export surpluses, with the EU and Arab Gulf markets as primary targets.
• Infrastructure Gap: Algeria currently lacks the bottling and certification infrastructure to compete on quality at scale. The government has inaugurated its first EU-standard olive analysis laboratory in partnership with the EU, signalling intent to develop export capacity.

🇸🇾 Syria

Syria was historically the world’s third-largest olive oil producer before the civil war devastated its agricultural sector. Following the fall of the Assad government in late 2024, Syria’s new administration has signalled free-market reforms and a drive to revive olive oil exports — a sector of deep cultural and economic significance in the country’s northwest (Idlib, Aleppo, Latakia regions).

• Post-Conflict Recovery: Syrian olive oil exports peaked at ~51,000 tonnes in 2019 before the conflict severely disrupted production. The new government’s free-market reform agenda and EU engagement signal a potential revival — watch this space over the next 2-3 seasons.
• Buyer Caution: Logistics, certification and payment infrastructure remain fragile. Buyers interested in Syrian sourcing should conduct enhanced due diligence on export documentation and chain-of-custody.

🇯🇴 Jordan

Jordan is a historically self-sufficient producer of premium EVOO, but the 2025/26 season has been severely impacted by drought and alternate-bearing cycles, with output expected to fall by approximately 50%. The Ministry of Agriculture has launched emergency measures including allowing limited imports from Tunisia, Lebanon and Spain, and suspending green olive exports to protect domestic supply.

🇱🇧 Lebanon

Lebanon produces small volumes of exceptionally high-quality EVOO, primarily from the Souri (Sevillano) variety in mountain regions of the South, Bekaa Valley and North Lebanon. Despite severe economic crisis, Lebanon’s olive oil sector has shown resilience — per capita consumption of 3.8 kg/year (IOC data) places Lebanon among the world’s top consumers, and premium Lebanese EVOO commands strong prices in the Arab diaspora and specialty markets.

New World Producers
🇦🇷 Argentina

Argentina is the largest olive oil producer outside the Mediterranean, and one of the world’s most exciting quality stories. Centred in the Mendoza, La Rioja and San Juan provinces at the foot of the Andes, Argentine EVOO — particularly from the native Arauco variety — regularly tops international competition. The producer Laur was ranked #1 EVOO Producer in the World by EVOO World Rankings for three consecutive years (2021-2023). Argentina accounts for approximately 1.84% of global olive oil exports by value (Tridge, 2026).

• Counter-Seasonal Advantage: Argentina harvests in April-June — exactly when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest. This makes fresh Argentine EVOO attractive for quality-focused buyers in the June-August window.
• Export Growth: Argentine olive oil exports surged +111.85% in value terms in 2025/26 (Tridge). The falling peso makes Argentine exports highly competitive priced in USD.

🇨🇱 Chile

Chile is a growing olive oil producer and exporter, with production concentrated in the O’Higgins, Maule and Atacama regions. Chile accounts for approximately 1.00% of global olive oil exports by value. Primary export markets are Brazil, the United States and Spain. The 2025/26 season has seen a significant market contraction, with import values falling 55.7% and proxy prices declining 42.9% year-on-year as the global price correction ripples through South American markets.

🇦🇺 Australia

Australia produces premium EVOO primarily in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia, with the sector strongly positioned around quality, transparency and traceability — all certified under the strict Australian Olive Association (AOA) standards, which are among the most rigorous in the world. Australian EVOO is harvested March-June and commands a premium positioning in Asian and domestic markets.

• Quality Leader: Australia consistently punches above its weight in international competitions. The AOA certification scheme requires independent lab testing and sensory panel assessment — making Australian EVOO one of the most reliably certified grades in the world.
• Growing Asian Demand: Japan, China and South Korea are the primary export markets for Australian EVOO, driven by the health-positioning of the product and its counter-seasonal freshness advantage.

🇺🇸 United States (California)

California is the only significant olive oil producing region in the United States, centred in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. The state produces ultra-premium EVOO primarily from Spanish varieties (Arbequina, Arbosana, Koroneiki) under the rigorous California Olive Oil Council (COOC) certification. The US accounts for approximately 0.51% of global olive oil exports by value — a small producer but a highly influential quality standard-setter.

• The Tariff Factor: The Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff on all imports (April 2026) has made imported EVOO more expensive for US consumers, creating a competitive opening for domestic California producers. The NAOOA (National Olive Oil Association) is actively lobbying against tariffs that harm the broader market.
• Quality Benchmark: California’s COOC certification is widely considered the world’s most stringent olive oil standard, requiring acidity below 0.5% (vs. IOC’s 0.8%) and regular independent lab testing. California EVOO is the quality reference point for the entire US market.

Global Production Context — MOPI Reference Table

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season.

⭐ Southern Hemisphere — counter-seasonal to Mediterranean. Fresh oil available May-July when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest.

🧮 MOPI Delivered Cost Calculator

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Enter your parameters for an instant cost breakdown.

Origin
🇹🇳 Tunisia (Sfax) – EUR3.90/kg🇪🇸 Spain (Jaen) – EUR3.93/kg🇬🇷 Greece (Chania) – EUR4.44/kg🇬🇷 Greece (Mani) – EUR5.25/kg🇵🇹 Portugal – EUR4.35/kg🇹🇷 Turkey (Izmir) – EUR4.55/kg🇲🇦 Morocco – EUR4.20/kg🇮🇹 Italy (Bari) – EUR6.35/kg🇮🇹 Italy (Tuscany PDO) – EUR8.15/kg🇭🇷 Croatia (Istria) – EUR14.75/kg
Quantity (tonnes)

Destination
Within EU (no duty)UK (GBP)USA (USD, +10% tariff)Australia (AUD)Japan (JPY)Other non-EU (USD)
Customs
EU / Duty-FreeStandard EU Tariff (EUR1.245/kg)Tunisia Duty-Free Quota
Calculate →
Strategic Market Insights & Logistics
🚚 Forward Contracting Window — Act Now: OliveA confirmed 880,000 tonnes (70% of 2025/26 season) contracted, with stocks at campaign lows. Preliminary 2026/27 flowering fertility is down 37%. Historical data shows May–June accounts for ~21.5% of annual Spanish export volume. The window for locking in sub-€4.00 Spanish EVOO is closing. Tridge identifies Q3 2026 as the last entry point before 2026/27 supply uncertainty materialises.
🇪🇺 EU Duty-Free Quotas & IPR Framework: Tunisia’s 56,700 tonne/year duty-free quota (EU Reg. 2020/761) is fully allocated for the ninth consecutive year in 2025/26. Additional volumes enter via Inward Processing Regime (IPR) — duty-free if blended with EU oil and re-exported. With Tunisia winning 49 Geneva EIOO gold medals this year, IPR supply contracts combining Tunisian quality with EU access are the most commercially attractive position right now.
🧪 Quality Intelligence — Week of May 29: Greek Koroneiki (Peloponnese) tracking toward 500+ mg/kg polyphenol profiles under optimal early fruit set (24–29°C, dry). Tunisian Chetoui (northern terraces) registering near-zero acidity lots following the 2025/26 harvest — increasingly targeted by premium EU bottlers. Spanish Picual quality under watch: Andalusia entering fruit set at 30–36°C; any sustained heat above 38°C for >5 consecutive days risks yield quality reduction. Croatian Istrian oils (full bloom, 18–24°C) tracking for another record quality season.
🛒 Retail Margin Squeeze — AGCM Probe Underway: Italy’s antitrust authority (AGCM) is examining how supermarket chains are using discounted EVOO pricing to squeeze producer margins. Despite Spain hitting a 5-year wholesale low (€3.93/kg, −50.3% YoY), European supermarket shelf prices have fallen only 8–15% on average. Coldiretti estimates Italian producers are losing €180–220 million/year in lost margin. The AGCM probe outcome (expected Q3 2026) could force pricing adjustments that ripple through EU retail and partially close the MOPI Retail Gap.

Historical Price Context (May 2026 vs. May 2025)

Q3 2026 Risk Assessment Matrix

How to Interpret Market Corrections: A Quick Guide

• The 15% Correction Threshold: A price drop of 15% or more signals a shift from “scarcity-driven” to “volume-driven” trading; market panic has subsided.
• “Hand-to-Mouth” Trading: Buyers purchase only what they need for the immediate future (2–4 weeks), usually expecting further price drops.
• The Regional Price Gap: Large gaps between countries often signal arbitrage opportunities for major bottlers.
• Retail Time-Lag: Shelf prices typically move with a 60–90 day delay compared to wholesale market adjustments.
• Quality Parameters: Always verify if prices refer to Extra Virgin (low acidity) or industrial grades, as quality drives significant price variance.
• Polyphenol Content: Certificates of Analysis (CoA) confirming mg/kg polyphenols are increasingly requested by health-positioned EU and US buyers. Anything above 250 mg/kg qualifies for the EU health claim.

Methodology & Data Sources

The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) weekly price data is aggregated from a proprietary network of sources, including:

• Official Benchmarks: International Olive Council (IOC) and EU DG AGRI dashboards.
• Market Indices: Oleista.com (last update May 29, 2026 — Spain W22, Italy/Greece W21) · IOC producer price bulletins · POOLred/Mercacei.
• On-the-Ground Intelligence: Direct reports from regional agricultural cooperatives in Greece, Spain, and Tunisia.
• Freight Logistics: Aggregated bulk tanker rate trends across key Mediterranean transit corridors.
• FX Rates: ECB reference rates and Google Finance (May 29, 2026). EUR/USD 1.165 · EUR/GBP 0.867 · EUR/JPY 185.5 · EUR/AUD 1.621.
• Polyphenol Data: Published laboratory CoA results and peer-reviewed cultivar studies.

Note: Prices represent wholesale “ex-works” bulk volumes. Retail shelf prices and specific premium estate pricing may vary significantly based on local certification and packaging costs.

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© 2026 Mediterrolio Market Intelligence. The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) is published every Friday. All data sourced from IOC, Mercacei (POOLred), Oleista and regional field cooperatives.