Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of July 3, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 27

Mandranova

🇮🇹 Palma di Montechiaro, Agrigento, Sicily · Estate Grove · Multi-Award-Winning EVOO

On a hill a few miles from the sea, Mandranova tends a green oasis of native young olive trees alongside groves that are several hundred years old — every tree individually irrigated. From this estate near Palma di Montechiaro, the Agrigento producer crafts extra-virgin olive oil, almonds and conserves from a distinctive palette of Sicilian varieties: Giarraffa, Nocellara del Belice, Cerasuola, Biancolilla and Coratina. A long shelf of international awards — including NYIOOC Gold — and Protected Geographical Indication and FDA certifications underline a producer for whom estate identity and irrigated groves translate directly into consistency of quality, harvest after harvest.

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The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market opens July 2026 in a consolidation phase after two weeks of dramatic reversals. Spain holds at €3.73/kg (W27, Oleista July 2), effectively flat on the week — confirming the rebound has stabilised rather than continued to run. Tunisia's most recent reading (W26, June 22) also settles at €3.73/kg, putting the two origins at exact parity for the first time this season. Greece eases from last week's spike to €3.88/kg (W27) as Italian blenders pause their buying — the expected mid-cycle breather rather than a reversal of underlying tightness. Italy carries no new Oleista reading this week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) through the summer stand-down. Portugal is unchanged at €3.95/kg, now clearly the most expensive of the bulk-tier group by a margin of €0.07–€0.22/kg over its peers. The EUR firmed modestly to 1.1394 vs USD (ECB, June 30) — a small headwind for non-EU buyers finalising Q3 contracts this week. The IOC's Lisbon meetings and the Olive Oil World Congress (July 2–3) frame the sector's 2026/27 policy conversation. Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of June 30, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 27, July 3, 2026.

Greece's wholesale market eases to €3.88/kg (Oleista W27, July 2) from last week's €3.93/kg surge, as Italian industrial blenders pause to digest the two-week buying spree that took the national average from a trough to a season high. This is the expected mid-cycle breather in the hand-to-mouth procurement pattern, not a reversal of underlying tightness — allocations of Q4 2026 Messenia and Laconia Koroneiki continue to shrink as the summer recess approaches. Greece has slipped just above Tunisia and Spain, both now at €3.73/kg, putting Greek EVOO at the middle of a tight three-origin cluster spanning just €0.15/kg.

• Italian Buying Wave Pauses: After the W26 +48.30% surge, Italian industrial blenders have slowed their pace of Koroneiki purchases — a textbook pause within the ongoing hand-to-mouth cycle rather than a change in direction. Expect the next re-entry surge within 2-3 weeks as blenders return to secure Q4 2026 volumes.
• Middle of a Tight Three-Origin Cluster: At €3.88/kg, Greece now sits between Spain and Tunisia (both €3.73/kg) and Portugal (€3.95/kg) — a €0.22/kg band spanning four major bulk-tier origins, still unusually tight for this point in the season.
• Producer Inventory Winding Down: Greek cooperatives are entering the seasonal lull; new commercial listings will be minimal through July–August as the sector shifts to CoA documentation and competition-sample preparation.

Italy carries no new Oleista reading this week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — the level reached after last week's sharp −19.88% correction. With Italian industrial blenders' attention focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic Italian mill activity has slowed further into the summer recess. The Italy–Greece spread now stands at €1.89/kg, still comfortably profitable for blenders but narrower than the €1.98/kg seen two weeks ago.

• Prices Hold at Post-Correction Level: With no fresh Oleista reading, €5.77/kg becomes the working reference for Italian bulk through the current stand-down. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through summer as Greek and Spanish substitution pressure eases alongside the Greek price cooling.
• Olive Oil World Congress Reinforces Prestige Narrative: The second Olive Oil World Congress (July 2-3, Lisbon) and the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members meetings keep quality and authenticity themes in focus — favourable positioning for Italian PDO and premium artisan producers heading into autumn selling.
• Sicily's Estate Producers in the Spotlight: Mandranova of Palma di Montechiaro, Agrigento — this week's Gold Member Spotlight — exemplifies the depth of Sicily's individually-irrigated estate groves and multi-award artisan tradition outside the mainstream Puglia/Tuscany narrative.

Spain's wholesale market holds essentially flat at €3.73/kg (W27, Oleista July 2, +9.04% on a 10-day basis versus the deeper June trough) — confirming last week's rebound has stabilised into a plateau rather than continuing to run. The headline development is Spain reaching exact price parity with Tunisia for the first time this season. Meanwhile Andalusia remains inside Spain's second major 2026 heatwave, which began June 17 and continues to push daytime highs into the mid-to-high 30s°C with little relief forecast.

• Rebound Stabilises at €3.73/kg: Spain's W27 reading is essentially flat versus W26 — the co-op restocking demand that drove last week's rebound has settled into a plateau. This confirms the 2025/26 season floor has been passed and buyers are now pricing off the post-recovery level.
• Second Major Heatwave Continues: Andalusia remains inside Spain's second severe 2026 heatwave (began June 17), with highs of 34-38°C and little relief forecast. This follows a record-hot May with the highest number of heat-related deaths for that month since Spanish national records began in 2015 — underlining the scale of 2026's summer heat stress.
• 2026/27 Supply Risk Crystallising Further: Continued heat exposure adds to the confirmed 3–7% fruitlet loss from the earlier June event and the structural −30%+ flowering fertility already on record. Forward contract conversations for Q4 2026/Q1 2027 remain the priority for buyers this week.

Portugal holds at €3.95/kg (W25, Oleista, unchanged since June 15) — now unchanged for three consecutive weeks. With Spain and Tunisia both converging to €3.73/kg and Greece easing to €3.88/kg, Portugal has become the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Spain and Tunisia, then Greece, with Portugal now the most expensive by a widening margin.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, most recent Oleista reading, no update this week). With Greece easing back to €3.88/kg, Turkey's discount to Greece narrows slightly to €0.51/kg. Izmir continues under excellent 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains above 45% capacity. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest as EU-origin prices converge tightly this week.

Tunisia's most recent reading (W26, June 22 update) settles at €3.73/kg — exact price parity with Spain, the defining bulk-tier story of Week 27. The EU duty-free quota (56,700t) remains exhausted for the 9th consecutive year; IPR routing continues for residual EU-destined volumes. With Greece just above at €3.88/kg and Portugal the outlier at €3.95/kg, blenders now have four EU/non-EU origins within a €0.22/kg band — historically unusual optionality heading into the summer recess.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Peak summer tourist season remains fully active — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers, with direct-to-visitor sales continuing to drive revenue ahead of the autumn competition cycle.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s consumer certification (launched June 2026) keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of July 3, 2026.

Algeria's IOC-projected record 2025/26 harvest continues to generate its first meaningful exportable surplus. The government's EU-standard olive analysis laboratory (inaugurated 2025) is advancing certification readiness. Continued IOC engagement with North African producing countries throughout June signals ongoing institutional support for Algeria's integration into global quality frameworks. First EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country attending the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer this week. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. New government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is now fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady market distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open through the coming months. Argentine EVOO exports surged +111.85% in value terms in 2025/26. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. The falling peso continues to make USD-denominated exports highly competitive.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria now moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea.

The 10% baseline US tariff on EU imports (April 2026) continues to create a competitive opening for California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment. EUR/USD firming slightly to 1.1394 (from 1.1342 the week before) modestly increases the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil this week. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season. Global production: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 27, July 3, 2026.

Historical Price Context (July 2026 vs. July 2025)

July 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.