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Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of August 21, 2026

Weekly Intelligence Report
The Mediterrolio Index
Mediterranean Olive Oil Price Index (MOPI) | August 21, 2026
Updated: August 21, 2026
Weekly Intelligence
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The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) · August 21, 2026. Spain gives back part of its three-week rally: the national average eases to €3.42/kg (Oleista W34, August 19, -1.7% on the week from €3.48/kg), still the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI. Greece carries its €3.73/kg print forward for a second straight week with no fresh reading, still comfortably above Tunisia (€3.71/kg, confirmed unchanged for a seventh straight week) but below Portugal's €3.95/kg ceiling (unchanged for an eighth straight week). Italy remains stalled at €5.77/kg for a tenth consecutive week as the summer recess runs into its final stretch. On trade policy, the Section 301 forced-labor tariff regime is now a full four weeks fully binding, with no USTR response yet to Turkish exporters' (EZZİB) public campaign for relief before the October harvest. On weather, Spain's fire season has entered its most severe stretch yet: the Niebla blaze in Huelva is now confirmed as the largest wildfire in Andalusian history (~45,800 ha, EFFIS), and the Peñas de Riglos fire in Aragón's Huesca mountains has grown past 18,600 ha, drawing French reinforcements on August 18 and claiming the life of a Spanish soldier deployed to fight it. Croatia was hit by tragedy of its own this week: a wind-driven wildfire tore through the tourist town of Omiš on the Dalmatian coast (August 13–14), killing one person, injuring dozens and destroying 58 homes. Greece's overall burned-area picture remains comparatively favourable (~30,800 ha, still 39% below the 20-year average), though twin fires on Salamis Island killed two people on August 16. The EUR firmed to 1.1593 vs USD (ECB, August 17). Summer thin-trading conditions are giving way to the first pre-harvest positioning of the season.
🎯 Buyer's Signal of the Week
Week of August 17 – August 21, 2026
3 Actionable Moves for This Week
  • 🇪🇸 SPAIN'S RALLY PAUSES — TREAT THE PULLBACK AS NOISE, NOT A NEW TREND, UNTIL W35 CONFIRMS IT. W34's -1.7% dip to €3.42/kg breaks Spain's three-week run of gains, but it lands against a fire season that has just produced Andalusia's worst wildfire on record (Niebla, ~45,800 ha) and a growing Aragón front (Peñas de Riglos, 18,600+ ha) that has now claimed a soldier's life. Buyers should not read this single-week dip as a floor breaking; keep forward-contract conversations moving and watch whether next week's print confirms a reversal or was simply mean-reversion after three up-weeks.
  • 🇬🇷 GREECE'S PRICE HOLDS STEADY FOR A SECOND WEEK — BUT A TRAGIC NEW INCIDENT ON SALAMIS TEMPERS THE GOOD-NEWS NARRATIVE. Oleista's €3.73/kg reading carries forward unchanged, and the national burned-area tally (~30,800 ha, 39% below the 20-year average) still points to a comparatively calm season overall. But twin fires on Salamis Island killed two people on August 16 — a reminder that isolated tragedy can strike even in a season running well below historical averages. Buyers can continue negotiating against the stale-but-still-competitive print while staying alert to logistics disruption near Athens-area ports.
  • 🇭🇷 CROATIA'S TOURISM-SEASON STORY TURNS TRAGIC — A REMINDER THAT BOUTIQUE ORIGINS ARE NOT INSULATED FROM THIS SUMMER'S FIRE RISK. A wind-driven wildfire tore through the Dalmatian coastal town of Omiš on August 13–14, killing one person, injuring dozens and destroying 58 homes and dozens of vehicles and boats — the most severe single wildfire event of Croatia's 2026 season. Croatia's boutique EVOO pricing (Istria, Dalmatia) remains detached from bulk dynamics for now, but buyers with direct-estate relationships in the affected region should check in on suppliers and logistics before finalising any pre-autumn orders.
⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 34
🇬🇷 Patras, Greece · 3rd-Generation Family Mill · Koroneiki
Prestige traces back to the family business "Mayonos Olive Mill," founded in 1970 by Sotirios Mayonos and passed down first to his daughter Fotini Mayonou and her husband Christodoulos Raptis, and now to their sons Dimitrios and Marios Raptis. In 2021, the brothers founded the Prestige EVOO standardisation company as the third generation of the family mill, investing in equipment and process to set exacting quality and aesthetic standards while carrying forward the trust built by their grandfather's generation. The Koroneiki-based estate has collected an array of quality distinctions, including LIOOC 2025 Gold, Berlin Award Gold for Organic Quality 2025, and Kotinos recognition — a working example of the multi-generation mill-to-brand story that anchors Mediterrolio's Greek network.
📰 Industry News This Week
Weather & Wildfire · Spain · Andalusia's Worst On Record
The Niebla fire in Huelva is confirmed as the largest wildfire in Andalusian history, and a soldier is killed fighting the Aragón front. EFFIS satellite estimates now put the Niebla blaze at roughly 45,800 hectares, surpassing the 34,000-hectare Riotinto fire of 2004. Meanwhile the Peñas de Riglos fire in Aragón's Huesca mountains has grown past 18,600 hectares, prompting further village evacuations and drawing French firefighting reinforcements on August 18. A Spanish soldier deployed with the UME emergency military unit was killed while battling the Aragón fires. MITECO's national tally stood at 226,391 hectares through August 11 — 38.2% above the same date in 2025 — and has continued climbing through the week.
Weather & Wildfire · Croatia · Omiš Tragedy
A wind-driven wildfire kills one and injures dozens in the Dalmatian tourist town of Omiš. The fire swept into Omiš overnight on August 13–14, forcing roughly 2,500 people to evacuate, destroying 58 homes, 36 vehicles and 25 boats, and leaving 36 people needing medical treatment, seven with life-threatening injuries. It is the most severe single wildfire event of Croatia's 2026 season, arriving at the height of the summer tourist window on the Dalmatian coast.
Weather & Wildfire · Greece · Mixed Week
Greece's national burned-area total stays well below average, but twin fires on Salamis Island kill two people. Greece's cumulative 2026 burned area stands at roughly 30,800 hectares — still 39% below the 20-year average — after a Halkidiki fire near Siviri was brought under control by August 14/15. However, two people died in twin wildfires that broke out on Salamis Island on August 16, a reminder that isolated tragedy persists even in a comparatively calm national season.
Price Action · Spain
Spain eases -1.7% to €3.42/kg, breaking a three-week run of gains. Oleista's W34 reading (August 19) shows Spanish EVOO at €3.42/kg, down from €3.48 the prior week. Greece's €3.73/kg print carries forward unchanged for a second week, Tunisia holds at €3.71/kg for a seventh straight week, and Italy remains stalled at €5.77/kg for a tenth week.
Weekly Producer Prices (At Source)
Region / Country Extra Virgin (EVOO) Virgin (VOO) Trend
Spain (National · Oleista W34, August 19) €3.317 – €3.523/kg · avg €3.42 €3.056 – €3.245/kg · avg €3.15 ↓ -1.7% on the week · Breaks a three-week run of gains
Italy (National · Oleista W25 — no new reading, 10th week) €5.60 – €5.93/kg · avg €5.77 €3.50/kg ↔ Unchanged · Deepest point of the stand-down as autumn nears
Greece (National · Oleista W33, August 11 — carried forward, 2nd week) €3.64 – €3.82/kg · avg €3.73 €2.80/kg ↔ Stale, 2nd week · No fresh print this week
Tunisia (Export · ONH · W31, July 27) €3.58 – €3.84/kg · avg €3.71 €2.68/kg (Lampant, Aug 2) ↔ Confirmed unchanged, 7th week · Second-cheapest bulk-tier origin
Croatia (Istria/Dalmatia) €13.50 – €16.00/kg (Istria) · €10.00–€13.00/kg (Dalmatia) ↔ Boutique, detached from bulk · Omiš wildfire disrupted the Dalmatian coast this week
Portugal (National · Oleista W27, June 29) €3.80 – €4.10/kg · avg €3.95 €3.30 – €3.50/kg ↔ Unchanged · Ceiling of the bulk-tier group holds, 8th week
Turkey (Export · Izmir · W13, stale) €4.20 – €4.60/kg · avg €4.39 €3.26/kg ↔ No fresh reading · Section 301 relief campaign still awaiting a USTR response
Morocco (Export · Fès-Meknès) €4.00 – €4.30/kg ↔ Plentiful 2025/26 crop · 12.5% Section 301 duty settled, 4th week
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📈 12-Month EVOO Price History (€/kg)
Wholesale EVOO bulk prices at source (€/kg), monthly midpoints Sep 2025 → Aug 2026. Sources: IOC, POOLred/Mercacei, Oleista. Aug 2026 reflects W34 (Spain, August 19) and latest available (Greece W33, Italy W25, Tunisia W31) data.
Market Summary & Forecasts

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market gave back a piece of its late-summer recovery this week, with Spain's national average easing -1.7% to €3.42/kg (W34, Oleista August 19) after three consecutive weekly gains — still the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI. Greece carried its €3.73/kg print forward unchanged for a second straight week, still above Tunisia (€3.71/kg, confirmed unchanged for a seventh week) but below Portugal's €3.95/kg ceiling, unchanged for an eighth straight week. Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a tenth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg as the summer stand-down runs into its final stretch. On trade policy, the Section 301 forced-labor tariff regime is now a full four weeks fully binding, with Turkish exporters' (EZZİB) public campaign for relief before the October harvest still awaiting any USTR response. On weather, Spain's fire season has entered its most destructive phase yet: the Niebla blaze in Huelva is now confirmed as the largest wildfire in Andalusian history at roughly 45,800 hectares, while the Peñas de Riglos fire in Aragón's Huesca mountains has grown past 18,600 hectares, drawn French reinforcements, and claimed the life of a Spanish soldier. Croatia was struck by tragedy of its own, with a wind-driven wildfire killing one person and injuring dozens in the Dalmatian tourist town of Omiš on August 13–14. Greece's national burned-area total remains comparatively favourable at roughly 30,800 hectares (39% below the 20-year average), though twin fires on Salamis Island killed two people on August 16. The EUR firmed to 1.1593 vs USD (ECB, August 17). Summer thin-trading conditions are beginning to give way to early pre-harvest positioning ahead of the 2026/27 crop.

Pullback After 3 Up-Weeks
Spain
€3.42/kg · W34 -1.7% w/w
Stale, 2nd Week
Greece
€3.73/kg · burned area 39% below avg
Confirmed Unchanged, 7th Wk
Tunisia
€3.71/kg · 2nd cheapest
Stale 10th Week
Italy
€5.77/kg · deepest point of recess
Ceiling Holds, 8th Week
Portugal
€3.95/kg · unchanged
🛒 Retail Price Gap Tracker

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

🇩🇪 Germany (€/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W34)≈ €3.87/L
Lidl / Aldi private label€7.50–€8.00/L
Rewe / Bertolli brand€9.00–€12.00/L
Discounter margin+91–99%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (£/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W34)≈ £3.21/L
Lidl Primadonna (500ml)£9.98/L equiv.
Tesco / Sainsbury's own£10–£14/L
Discounter margin+211%
🇺🇸 United States ($/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, +15% EU deal tariff)≈ $4.56/L
Trader Joe's 1L EVOO$11.00/L
Premium / organic brands$18–$34/L
Supermarket margin+141%
💡 Key insight (Week 34): Spain's pullback to €3.42/kg is now roughly -58.3% below August 2025 levels, so the wholesale-to-shelf gap remains historically wide since retail rarely reprices within days of a wholesale move. On the US side, the landed-cost calculation keeps reflecting the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling for Spanish oil — unaffected by the now four-week-settled Section 301 regime, which only governs Tunisian, Turkish and Moroccan landed costs.
💱 MOPI FX Impact Calculator

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of August 17, 2026 (ECB reference).

Show in:

Mid-market rates ECB August 17 2026: EUR/USD 1.1593 · EUR/GBP 0.8550 · EUR/JPY ≈184.05 · EUR/AUD ≈1.652. Verify with your bank for transactional use.

☀️ Weather & Agronomic Conditions

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

🇪🇸 Andalusia, Spain
🔥
Temperature
34–40°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Growth / Worst Fire Week Yet ⚠️
🔥 Niebla Now Andalusia's Largest Fire on Record; Soldier Killed in Aragón: The Niebla fire in Huelva has grown to an estimated 45,800 hectares (EFFIS), surpassing the 34,000-hectare 2004 Riotinto fire to become the largest wildfire in Andalusian history. The Peñas de Riglos fire in Aragón's Huesca mountains has passed 18,600 hectares, prompting further evacuations and drawing French firefighting reinforcements on August 18 — and claiming the life of a Spanish soldier deployed with the UME. MITECO's national tally stood at 226,391 hectares through August 11 (+38.2% vs. the same date in 2025) and has continued climbing through the week.
🇮🇹 Apulia, Italy
☀️
Temperature
31–35°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Stable, Nearing the End of the Recess: Apulia continues under stable, dry late-summer conditions with active fruit growth. No new Oleista Italian reading for a tenth straight week — bulk prices hold at €5.77/kg. This week's Gold Member Spotlight moves to Greece with Prestige (Patras) — a third-generation family-mill story that speaks to the multi-generation heritage many of Italy's own reclaimed-grove producers share.
🇬🇷 Attica & Central Greece
☀️
Temperature
32–36°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Growth / Salamis Tragedy
⚠️ National Picture Calm, But Salamis Fires Turn Deadly: Twin wildfires broke out on Salamis Island on August 16, killing two people — a tragic exception to an otherwise comparatively calm season near Athens. The wider Attica region has seen no other major new incidents this week, with winds staying moderate.
🇬🇷 Peloponnese & Crete
☀️
Temperature
31–34°C
Rainfall
Dry, rainless
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Calm, National Burned Area Still Well Below Average: Crete and the Peloponnese remain hot and rainless (31-34°C) with no new fire activity this week. Greece's cumulative 2026 burned area of roughly 30,800 ha is still running 39% below the 20-year average. Koroneiki fruitlet development continues on track — the variety behind this week's Gold Spotlight, Prestige of Patras.
🇹🇷 Izmir Region, Turkey
☀️
Temperature
31–35°C
Rainfall
Mostly dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Favourable Growing Conditions, Tariff Campaign Still Unanswered: Izmir remains under stable, hot-but-typical late-August conditions with Ayvalık and Memecik groves continuing solid fruit development. No fresh Oleista reading keeps Turkey at €4.39/kg. EZZİB's public campaign for a correction to the 12.5% Section 301 duty before October harvest has drawn no USTR response yet this week.
🇹🇳 Sfax & Sahel, Tunisia
☀️
Temperature
32–37°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Normal Conditions, Tariff Advantage Now Four Weeks Settled: Sfax and Sahel under typical late-summer heat (32-37°C, dry). Fruit development proceeding normally. Tunisia's confirmed €3.71/kg reading holds unchanged for a seventh week as the second-cheapest bulk-tier origin, with its settled US tariff advantage over Turkey and Morocco now four weeks into full enforcement.
🇲🇦 Fès-Meknès & Marrakech
Temperature
29–33°C
Rainfall
Dry / mild
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Positive Conditions, Tariff Now Four Weeks Settled: Morocco's national dam reservoirs continue trending near 45% of capacity. Fruit development proceeding well in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's 12.5% US duty remains a fixed cost of doing business rather than a pending question, even as its non-EU, non-quota positioning continues to attract diversification interest elsewhere.
🇭🇷 Istria & Dalmatia, Croatia
🔥
Temperature
28–33°C
Rainfall
Rare
Stage
Fruit Growth / Omiš Tragedy ⚠️
🔥 Wildfire Kills One, Injures Dozens in Omiš: A wind-driven wildfire tore through the Dalmatian tourist town of Omiš overnight on August 13-14, killing one person, injuring 36 (seven critically), and destroying 58 homes, 36 vehicles and 25 boats. Roughly 2,500 people were evacuated. The fire was brought under control by August 15. Croatia's cumulative 2026 burned area stands at 5,100-9,600 hectares depending on source. Boutique pricing (€13.50-€16.00/kg Istria, €10.00-€13.00/kg Dalmatia) remains detached from bulk-tier dynamics for now.
🇵🇹 Alentejo & Trás-os-Montes
Temperature
29–35°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Mid Fruit Growth
✅ Heat Continues to Ease Slightly: Portugal's temperatures remain a touch below the mid-30s highs of recent weeks. At €3.95/kg, unchanged for an eighth week, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group. The January 2026 VAT cut to 6% on mainland olive oil production continues to support grower margins.
📌 Phenological note (Week of August 17 – 21, 2026): Spain's fire season reached its most severe point yet this week — the Niebla blaze in Huelva is confirmed as Andalusia's largest wildfire on record (~45,800 ha), and the Aragón/Huesca front has grown past 18,600 ha, drawn French reinforcements, and cost a Spanish soldier his life. Croatia suffered its most severe single wildfire event of the season in Omiš, killing one and injuring dozens. Greece's national picture remains comparatively calm (~30,800 ha, 39% below average) despite the tragic Salamis fires. Italy, Turkey, Morocco and Portugal remain in stable, favourable fruit growth under typical dry late-August heat. Spain's record-breaking Andalusian fire and Croatia's Omiš tragedy are the two defining threads of Week 34.
⚖️ MOPI Country Comparison Tool

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 34, August 21, 2026.

Analysis by Country
🇬🇷 Greece

Greece carries its Oleista W33 reading forward for a second consecutive week with no fresh update, holding at €3.73/kg. The stale print keeps Greece above both Spain (€3.42) and Tunisia (€3.71) but below Portugal's €3.95/kg ceiling, so the relative order of the four bulk-tier EU/non-EU origins remains unchanged. The bigger story in Greece this week is a difficult one: twin wildfires broke out on Salamis Island on August 16, killing two people — a sharp reminder that even a national season running 39% below the 20-year average in burned area can still produce isolated tragedy. Elsewhere, the Halkidiki fire near Siviri that forced a dramatic sea evacuation the week before was fully brought under control by August 14/15, and no other major new incidents have been reported this week.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Peloponnese (Messenia/Laconia)€3.65 – €3.95/kg
Crete (Chania/Heraklion)€3.55 – €3.85/kg
Lesbos & Aegean Islands€3.45 – €3.75/kg
Premium Organic / Single Estate (Mani, Lemnos)€4.70 – €5.30/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Second Straight Stale Week: No fresh Oleista print means buyers are still negotiating against the €3.73/kg reading from August 11, with the next real data point due to confirm whether the softening trend of the prior two weeks continues.
  • Salamis Tragedy Cuts Through an Otherwise Calm Season: Two deaths from twin fires on August 16 stand in contrast to the country's still-favourable national burned-area figures, underlining that low aggregate risk does not eliminate acute local danger.
  • Greek Gold Spotlight Returns: This week's Gold Member Spotlight, Prestige of Patras, keeps the multi-generation family-mill story front and centre as the network heads toward autumn.
🇮🇹 Italy

Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a tenth consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — a reference now deep into stale territory as the summer recess runs into its final stretch. With Italian industrial blenders' attention still focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic mill activity remains minimal. The Italy-Greece spread now stands at €2.04/kg, comfortably profitable for blenders once trading resumes. Attention across the Italian trade this week has largely followed the broader Mediterranean fire narrative rather than domestic developments, with Apulia itself continuing under stable, dry conditions.

Region / Prestige CategoryWholesale EVOO Price Range
Apulia (Bari/Foggia – Bulk Base)€5.60 – €5.93/kg
Sicily (Val di Mazara / PDO Bulk)€6.00 – €6.35/kg
Tuscany / Umbria / Lazio (Premium IGP/PDO)€7.50 – €8.50/kg
Calabria (Commercial EVOO Blend Base)€5.50 – €5.90/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Reference Price Now Ten Weeks Stale: With no fresh Oleista reading since W25, €5.77/kg carries meaningfully less signal value heading into autumn. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through late summer, but the true current level is genuinely uncertain.
  • US Tariff Position Unchanged and Settled: Italian EVOO, like all EU origins, remains on the flat 15% US tariff ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the Section 301 regime, which only governs non-EU origins.
  • Attention Shifts to Autumn Prep: With the recess in its final stretch, Italian buyers are increasingly focused on positioning for the October-December harvest window rather than reacting to a stale reference price.
🇪🇸 Spain

Spain's wholesale market pulled back this week, easing -1.7% to €3.42/kg (W34, Oleista August 19) after three consecutive weeks of gains. Spain remains the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI, still comfortably below Tunisia, Greece and Portugal. The pullback arrives as Spain's fire season entered its most destructive phase of the year: the Niebla fire in Huelva is now confirmed as the largest wildfire in Andalusian history at roughly 45,800 hectares (EFFIS), surpassing the 34,000-hectare 2004 Riotinto fire. In Aragón, the Peñas de Riglos fire in the Huesca mountains has grown past 18,600 hectares, forcing further village evacuations, drawing French firefighting reinforcements on August 18, and claiming the life of a Spanish soldier deployed with the UME emergency military unit. MITECO's national tally stood at 226,391 hectares through August 11 — 38.2% above the same date in 2025, from 43 major fires versus 24 a year ago — and has continued climbing through the week.

Agricultural HubWholesale EVOO Price Range
Jaén (Principal Co-op Market Baseline)€3.32 – €3.70/kg
Andalusia (Regional avg, W33)€3.45/kg (sub-regional, unchanged)
Catalonia (Siurana / Premium Arbequina)€4.10 – €4.50/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Three-Week Rally Breaks: Spain's W34 reading eases -1.7% to €3.42/kg after three straight weekly gains. A single down-week does not overturn the recovery signal, but buyers should watch whether next week's print confirms a reversal or was simple mean-reversion.
  • Andalusia's Worst Fire on Record: The Niebla blaze in Huelva has surpassed the 2004 Riotinto fire to become the largest wildfire in the region's history, at an estimated 45,800 hectares.
  • Aragón Front Turns Deadly: The Peñas de Riglos fire has grown past 18,600 hectares, drawn French reinforcements, and claimed the life of a Spanish soldier — the most serious human toll of Spain's 2026 fire season to date.
  • US Tariff Question Fully Resolved for Spain: Spanish EVOO remains on the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the Section 301 regime.
🇵🇹 Portugal

Portugal holds unchanged at €3.95/kg for an eighth straight week (W27, June 29 reading carried forward). With Spain at €3.42/kg, Tunisia at €3.71/kg and Greece's stale print at €3.73/kg, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Spain, then Tunisia, then Greece, with Portugal remaining the most expensive by a wide and stable margin. Temperatures across Alentejo have continued to ease slightly from recent peaks.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Alentejo (Super-Intensive / Modern Estates)€3.80 – €4.05/kg
Trás-os-Montes (Traditional Mountain Groves)€4.10 – €4.45/kg
Centro / Ribatejo (Blended Commercial Base)€3.90 – €4.15/kg
🇹🇷 Turkey

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update this week). Turkey now trades above every EU origin except Portugal following Spain's decline over recent months. Izmir continues under stable, favourable 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook. On trade policy, EZZİB's public campaign for a correction to the 12.5% Section 301 duty before the October harvest — first raised last week, citing a 30% year-on-year decline in H1 2026 export volumes — has drawn no confirmed response from Washington this week.

🇲🇦 Morocco

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains near 45% of national capacity. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. With the Section 301 grace period now four weeks closed, Morocco's 12.5% duty alongside Turkey is a settled cost of doing business in the US market rather than a proposal — a permanent consideration for its US landed-cost profile, even as its non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest elsewhere.

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Tunisia's freshest confirmed reading (W31, July 27 update) holds unchanged for a seventh week at €3.71/kg, keeping it the second-cheapest bulk-tier origin behind Spain. Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy forced-labor investigation continues to translate into a settled, materially lower US landed cost relative to its North African and Turkish counterparts — a structural advantage that has now held for four full weeks of enforcement, in contrast to Turkey's public campaign for relief this month.

🇭🇷 Croatia

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, unchanged on the week. But the region's summer season took a tragic turn on August 13-14, when a wind-driven wildfire tore through the Dalmatian tourist town of Omiš, killing one person, injuring 36 (seven critically) and destroying 58 homes, 36 vehicles and 25 boats. Roughly 2,500 people were evacuated, with 286 firefighters, 90 vehicles and four aircraft deployed overnight; the fire was brought under control by August 15. It is the most severe single wildfire event of Croatia's 2026 season, and it struck at the height of the peak tourism window that estate producers rely on for direct-to-visitor sales.

Producing RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Istria Peninsula (Ultra-Premium / High Polyphenol)€13.50 – €16.00/kg
Zadar / Northern Dalmatia (Boutique Cooperatives)€11.00 – €13.00/kg
Southern Dalmatia & Islands (Traditional Hand-Picked)€10.00 – €12.50/kg
🧬 Polyphenol & Quality Profile Index

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s June 2026 consumer certification keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

EU Health Claim (Regulation 432/2012) + QvExtra! 2026 Certification: An olive oil may carry the claim "olive oil polyphenols contribute to the protection of blood lipids from oxidative stress" if it contains ≥250 mg/kg of hydroxytyrosol and its derivatives. QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification provides a consumer-facing channel to communicate these claims — a commercial differentiator for high-phenolic producers. Always request the Certificate of Analysis (CoA).
🌍 Global Producers — Beyond the Mediterranean

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of August 21, 2026.

Middle East & North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria

Algeria's projected 2025/26 output of roughly 150,000 tonnes against average domestic consumption of ~81,000 tonnes continues to imply a meaningful exportable surplus, yet actual exports remain a fraction of that potential — only around 1,000-1,200 tonnes shipped in the strongest recent seasons, roughly 1% of production. French imports from Algeria have nonetheless been growing at a 67% annual rate, reaching 735 tonnes in 2024, as organic certification, GlobalGAP and EU phytosanitary documentation gradually fall into place. Algeria remains named among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now four weeks into full enforcement — a settled, if still minor, consideration for the small but growing US-bound volume. First larger-scale EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Region / Grade Wholesale Price Range Notes
Kabylie Region (Traditional)€5.50 – €7.00/kgPremium mountain-grown. Export documentation gradually maturing.
Industrial / Bulk (National)€4.20 – €5.50/kgLarge exportable surplus theoretically available; export infrastructure remains the binding constraint.
🇸🇾 Syria

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country having attended the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

New World Producers
🇦🇷 Argentina

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open. Export values remain strong year-on-year, though rising domestic production costs are an emerging watch item for margins heading into the next planting cycle. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. Argentina remains on the 60-economy Section 301 list, though the country is not a major EVOO exporter to the US relative to its Asian and European buyers.

🇦🇺 Australia

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. National production is holding near 20,000–21,000 tonnes — the second-highest level since 2021/22 — while exports have climbed to their strongest point in three years as buyers diversify beyond Europe. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea; the Section 301 list is a minor consideration given the limited scale of Australia's US-bound EVOO trade. Australian producers eyeing the NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere competition now have just under two weeks left to register before the September 1 deadline.

🇺🇸 United States (California)

With the EU-US trade deal in place since July 1, EU olive oil pays a flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff, fully insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the tariff transition has permanently split the field: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list means a materially lower US duty, while Turkey and Morocco face a confirmed, four-weeks-settled 12.5% rate — a split now openly contested by Turkish exporters, who continue lobbying for relief ahead of the October harvest with no response yet from Washington. EUR/USD holding near 1.1593 keeps the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil broadly stable week-on-week. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Global Production Context — MOPI Reference Table

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), set before this summer's Spanish, Greek and Croatian wildfire damage. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Country IOC 2026/27 Estimate EVOO Price Tier (August 2026) Harvest Season
🇪🇸 Spain~1,550,000 t€3.32–€3.52/kgOct – Dec
🇹🇳 Tunisia~345,000 t€3.58–€3.84/kgNov – Jan
🇮🇹 Italy~315,000 t€5.60–€8.50/kgOct – Dec
🇲🇦 Morocco~245,000 t€4.00–€4.30/kgOct – Jan
🇬🇷 Greece~240,000 t€3.64–€5.30/kgOct – Dec
🇹🇷 Turkey~178,000 t€4.20–€4.75/kgOct – Dec
🇵🇹 Portugal~172,000 t€3.80–€4.45/kgOct – Dec
🇺🇸 USA (California)n/a (import-heavy market)$8.00–$15.00/kgOct – Jan
🇦🇺 Australia~20,000–21,000 tAUD 7–18/kgMar – Jun (harvest complete)

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set before this summer's Spanish, Greek and Croatian wildfire damage; the October aforo will show how much of the projected Spanish recovery holds. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

🧮 MOPI Delivered Cost Calculator

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 34, August 21, 2026. Note: Section 301's in-transit exemption expired July 28 and the tariff split is now four weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Strategic Market Insights & Logistics
📊 Spain's Rally Pauses — A Single Down-Week, Not Yet a Reversal: The -1.7% dip to €3.42/kg (W34) breaks three consecutive weeks of gains. Buyers should watch the next 1-2 readings before concluding the recovery has stalled; a single pullback after three up-weeks is well within normal noise.
🔥 Andalusia's Worst Wildfire on Record — Watch for 2026/27 Harvest Impact: The Niebla fire in Huelva has surpassed the 2004 Riotinto blaze (34,000 ha) to become the largest wildfire in Andalusian history at an estimated 45,800 hectares. Combined with the ongoing Aragón front, MITECO's national tally (226,391 ha through August 11, +38.2% y/y) will keep climbing. Buyers with Andalusian sourcing exposure should begin scenario-planning for possible 2026/27 crop impact in affected groves.
🇭🇷 Croatia's Tourism Economy Takes a Direct Hit — Boutique Pricing Unaffected So Far: The Omiš wildfire (August 13-14) killed one person, injured 36 and destroyed 58 homes at the height of Croatia's peak tourism season. Istria and Dalmatia boutique EVOO pricing remains detached from bulk dynamics, but buyers with direct-estate relationships near the affected coast should check in on logistics before finalising pre-autumn orders.
🇹🇷 Turkey's Tariff-Relief Campaign Still Awaiting a Response: EZZİB's public push to revisit the 12.5% Section 301 duty, backed by a documented 30% year-on-year export decline, has drawn no confirmed USTR response two weeks after it was first raised. Buyers with Turkish sourcing exposure should continue tracking this closely into autumn without pricing in a change yet.

Historical Price Context (August 2026 vs. August 2025)

Market Benchmark (EVOO Bulk)Current Price (August 2026)Historical Price (August 2025)Year-over-Year Change
Spain (Jaén Baseline)€3.42/kg€8.20/kg↓ −58.3%
Italy (Bari Bulk)€5.77/kg€9.10/kg↓ −36.6%
Greece (Chania Average)€3.73/kg€6.90/kg↓ −45.9%
Tunisia (Sfax Export)€3.71/kg€6.50/kg↓ −42.9%
Portugal (Alentejo)€3.95/kg€6.30/kg↓ −37.3%
Global Benchmark (IMF/FRED, latest available)~$6,150/tonne~$9,200/tonne↓ −33.2%

August 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.


Q3 2026 Risk Assessment Matrix
Risk FactorImpact LevelMitigation Strategy
Spain Spot-Price Direction — W34 eases -1.7% to €3.42/kg, breaking a three-week run of gains Medium Treat the pullback as a single-week move rather than a confirmed reversal. Continue staggered forward commitments and watch the next 1-2 readings before adjusting positioning materially.
Spain 2026/27 Supply Tightening — Andalusia's Worst Fire on Record — Niebla fire surpasses 2004 Riotinto (34,000 ha) at an estimated 45,800 ha; Aragón front past 18,600 ha with a soldier killed High Escalate scenario-planning for Andalusian and Aragonese grove impact on the 2026/27 harvest. Accelerate forward contract discussions with unaffected Spanish cooperatives; do not assume the fire season has peaked.
Croatia Wildfire Damage — Omiš Tragedy — one death, 36 injured, 58 homes destroyed on the Dalmatian coast (Aug 13-14), at the height of peak tourism season Medium Boutique bulk pricing (Istria, Dalmatia) unaffected so far, but check in directly with estate suppliers near the affected coast on logistics and continuity before finalising pre-autumn orders.
US Tariff Transition — Settled, But Turkey's Campaign Still Unanswered — Section 301 four weeks fully in force; EZZİB's push for a correction before October has drawn no USTR response Medium Continue sourcing on the confirmed rates for now, but monitor for any USTR signal closely; a reversal before harvest, while not the base case, would re-price the Turkey lane quickly.
Spain–Tunisia–Greece Discount Order — Spain now cheapest by a wider margin after its pullback (€3.42 vs. Tunisia €3.71 and Greece's stale €3.73) Medium The gap has widened slightly this week; monitor whether Spain's discount to Tunisia and Greece persists or narrows again on the next print before adjusting blending ratios.
Tunisia Quota Exhaustion — 9th consecutive year fully allocated; IPR route required for EU-destined volumes High Confirm IPR contractor relationships for H2 2026 volumes immediately, independent of Tunisia's now four-week-settled US tariff advantage.
Italy No-Reading Risk — €5.77/kg reference is now ten weeks stale; true current level increasingly uncertain near the tail of the summer recess Medium Treat €5.77/kg as a floor reference rather than a live price. Autumn recovery toward €6.00+/kg remains the base case as packager demand returns; do not extrapolate the summer stand-down into 2026/27 pricing assumptions.
Greece Fire & Logistics Risk — Mostly De-Escalated, With a Tragic Exception — national burned area 39% below the 20-year average, but twin fires on Salamis Island killed two people (Aug 16) Low Maintain standard forwarder routing contingencies rather than an acute-risk posture. Confirm no disruption to Piraeus-area logistics before finalising Attica-linked shipments.
Summer Thin-Trading Liquidity Risk — late-summer recess still suppresses supply across all origins, though the window continues to narrow as autumn approaches Medium Finalise remaining Q3 2026 procurement decisions this month where possible. Summer illiquidity premium for spot supply can still add €0.30–€0.50/kg to any emergency procurement.
How to Interpret This Week's Reset
  • Spain's Pullback Is Likely Noise, Not a New Trend: A single down-week after three consecutive gains does not overturn the recovery signal, but it warrants watching the next print before treating €3.42/kg as a confirmed new level.
  • Spain's Fire Season Has Reached Its Worst Point Yet: Andalusia's largest wildfire on record and a fatal Aragón front mark a genuine escalation from prior weeks — this is no longer a two-track containment story but an active, worsening one.
  • Croatia's Tragedy Is a Reminder That No Origin Is Fully Insulated: The Omiš wildfire struck a boutique, tourism-dependent origin at its most vulnerable moment of the year — a risk factor worth tracking even where bulk pricing stays unaffected.
  • Turkey's Tariff Campaign Remains an Open Question: Two weeks in with no USTR response, the EZZİB push is neither resolved nor dismissed — a scenario to keep tracking weekly into October.
  • Watch the October Aforo Closely: IOC's ~1.55 million tonne Spanish recovery estimate was set before this summer's compounding heat and wildfire toll, which continues to worsen. The real number will only be known at harvest — everything before then is a working assumption.
Methodology & Data Sources
The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) weekly price data is aggregated from a proprietary network of sources, including:
  • Official Benchmarks: International Olive Council (IOC) and EU DG AGRI dashboards.
  • Market Indices: Oleista.com (last update August 19, 2026 — Spain W34; Greece W33 stale, 2nd week; Italy W25 stale; Tunisia W31 stale; Portugal W27 stale) · IOC producer price bulletins · POOLred/Mercacei · Vesper · Certified Origins · Olive Oil Times · Wikifarmer · agrotypos.gr · IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price (~$6,150/tonne, latest available).
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Direct reports from regional agricultural cooperatives in Greece, Spain, and Tunisia.
  • Freight Logistics: Aggregated bulk tanker rate trends across key Mediterranean transit corridors.
  • FX Rates: ECB Reference Rates (August 17, 2026) and Google Finance. EUR/USD 1.1593 · EUR/GBP 0.8550 · EUR/JPY ≈184.05 · EUR/AUD ≈1.652.
  • Polyphenol Data: Published laboratory CoA results and peer-reviewed cultivar studies.
  • Trade Policy: Section 301 forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies (effective July 24, 2026; in-transit exemption expired July 28, 2026 — USTR Federal Register notice, July 23, 2026); EU-US trade deal implementing regulations (Council of the EU, adopted June 25, effective July 1, 2026), covering Turkey and Morocco at 12.5% and confirming Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list; EZZİB (Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters Association) public statements, August 2026.
  • Wildfire Data: MITECO (Spain), EU Copernicus EFFIS, Croatian Firefighting Association, Reuters and BBC wire reporting on the Niebla (Huelva), Peñas de Riglos (Aragón), Salamis (Greece) and Omiš (Croatia) wildfire events, August 2026.
  • Competition & Institutional Data: IOC Olive Sector Statistics bulletin, June/July 2026; NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition Southern Hemisphere registration (closes September 1, 2026); IOC Mario Solinas Quality Award (Northern Hemisphere) call for participation, 2025/26 crop year.

Note: Prices represent wholesale "ex-works" bulk volumes. Retail shelf prices and specific premium estate pricing may vary significantly based on local certification and packaging costs. Where a source has not published a new reading this week, the most recent verified figure is carried forward and flagged accordingly.

🫒 Producer's Corner
New This Week Resources, deadlines and news curated for olive oil producers every Friday.
🏆
Competition Deadlines
Closes September 1, 2026 · Under 2 Weeks Left NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition — Southern Hemisphere
Registration is now inside its final two weeks for Southern Hemisphere producers — Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa. With fresh 2026 Southern Hemisphere vintages already moving through distribution, producers should finalise sample logistics immediately.
Entries Closed · Results Due September 15, 2026 Berlin GOOA Southern Hemisphere 2026
The Berlin Global Olive Oil Awards' Southern Hemisphere edition closed entries on July 31. Producers who registered in time should expect results in roughly three weeks — a fast turnaround well suited to autumn 2026 shelf launches.
Open Now · 2025/26 Crop Year IOC Mario Solinas Quality Award — Northern Hemisphere
The International Olive Council's call for participation for the 2026 Mario Solinas Quality Award (Northern Hemisphere edition) remains open, for EVOO from the 2025/2026 crop year in small-scale and large-scale producer categories from a single sealed-tank batch.
💡 With NYIOOC's Southern Hemisphere deadline under two weeks out, finalise sample logistics today — courier lead times can eat up the remaining window fast.
🔬
Lab & Certification News
Four Weeks In · Section 301 Certificate-of-Origin Scrutiny Remains Fully Live, No Sign of Easing
With the Section 301 in-transit exemption now four weeks expired, US customs brokers continue applying full scrutiny to country-of-origin documentation for blended bulk oil from Tunisia, Turkey and Morocco. Keep Certificates of Origin current alongside quality CoAs (Intertek, SGS, ONAOO-panel labs) for any US-bound shipment.
Effective Since January 2026 · Spain Spain's National Official Control Plan (2026-2030) Mandates Digital Traceability
Spain's stricter regulatory framework requires SIMO and REMOA digital traceability tools to monitor bulk stock movements — increasingly relevant as this month's wildfire damage in Andalusia raises questions about supply continuity from affected cooperatives, and as scrutiny of country-of-origin claims tightens globally.
Ongoing · EU Regulation 432/2012 EU Polyphenol Health Claim Threshold — ≥250 mg/kg
QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification keeps EU polyphenol claim documentation commercially valuable. Request CoA from your accredited lab (Intertek, SGS, ONAOO-panel approved) before the new harvest. Early-harvest Koroneiki, Arauco and high-phenolic Chetoui routinely exceed 250 mg/kg.
📦
Packaging & Equipment
Logistics Disruption · Croatia & Spain Wildfires Disrupt Coastal Freight Routes in Croatia and Spain
Croatia's D8 Adriatic Highway — the principal coastal freight and passenger route linking Split, Omiš, Makarska and Dubrovnik — saw closures and emergency traffic controls during the August 13-14 Omiš wildfire. In Spain, ongoing fire activity in Aragón's Huesca mountains has similarly disrupted regional road access. Shippers with Dalmatian or northeast Spanish routing should build in buffer time and confirm current road status before scheduling pre-autumn deliveries.
Export Trend Flexitank Demand Holds Firm as Turkey Awaits a Tariff Decision
Food-grade flexitanks — carrying up to ~24,000L per 20' container, up to 30% more than ISO tanks — remain the preferred format for exporters reaching Asia, the Americas and the Middle East. With Turkish exporters still awaiting a USTR response on tariff relief, buyers who shifted routing toward Tunisia should keep flexitank and EVOH oxygen-barrier capacity booked rather than wait on the outcome.
B2B Wholesale Mediterrolio on Orderchamp & Faire
Members can list on Orderchamp (EU) and Faire (global, 700,000+ retailers). Retail buyers are planning autumn 2026 shelf launches now — submit your listings while the summer window remains open so you are discoverable for September ordering.
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© 2026 Mediterrolio Market Intelligence. The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) is published every Friday. All data sourced from IOC, Oleista (W34 Spain August 19; W33 Greece stale, 2nd week; W31 Tunisia stale; W25 Italy stale; W27 Portugal stale), Mercacei (POOLred), Vesper, Certified Origins, Olive Oil Times, Wikifarmer, agrotypos.gr, MITECO, Copernicus EFFIS, IMF/FRED (~$6,150/tonne, latest available) and regional field cooperatives. FX rates: ECB August 17, 2026 and Google Finance — EUR/USD 1.1593 · EUR/GBP 0.8550 · EUR/JPY ≈184.05 · EUR/AUD ≈1.652.
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