Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of July 31, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 31

Savouidakis Olive Oils

🇬🇷 Agia Varvara, Heraklion, Crete, Greece · Founded 2012 · Koroneiki

Founded in 2012 by Ioannis Savouidakis as a sole proprietorship and converted into an S.A. in 2019, Savouidakis has built a distribution network reaching well beyond its home base on Crete. PDO-certified, BIO-certified and IFS/ISO 22000/ISO 9001 accredited, the brand has been recognised with Platinum and Gold quality awards at the LIOOC 2025 and Silver at the London IOOC 2023. This week's spotlight lands with unusual weight: Savouidakis's home region of Heraklion sits on the same island where deadly wildfires are actively burning Koroneiki groves near Rethymno as this report goes out — a reminder of what is directly at stake for Cretan producers this fire season.

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The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market resumed its decline this week even as the fire and heat backdrop worsened sharply. Spain's national average fell -5.6% to €3.40/kg (W31, Oleista July 30), a fresh cycle low and now -58.5% below July 2025, remaining by far the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI. Greece printed its first fresh reading in four weeks at €3.80/kg — essentially flat against the carried-forward €3.83/kg — while Tunisia's freshest reading (W30, July 20) confirmed unchanged at €3.71/kg for a second straight print, now the clear second-cheapest origin ahead of Greece and Portugal (€3.95/kg, unchanged for a fifth week). Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a seventh consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25). On trade policy, USTR's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs became final and took effect July 24: Turkey and Morocco face a confirmed 12.5% additional US duty while Tunisia, absent from the 60-economy list, reverts to a lower pre-IEEPA MFN duty — a locked-in structural advantage rather than a pending proposal. The dominant story of the week, however, is fire: Spain's merged Ávila/Madrid blaze is now confirmed as the largest wildfire in the country's recorded history at 50,000+ hectares, stabilised on July 29 with the national emergency lifted July 30, even as a fourth summer heatwave pushed temperatures to 40°C and national burned area surged past 207,000 hectares. In Greece, deadly wildfires on Crete killed three firefighters on July 29, destroyed olive groves near Rethymno, and triggered a Category 4 fire-risk warning across much of the country through July 31 — a fresh and unresolved threat to 2026/27 Greek supply. The EUR held near 1.1480 vs USD. Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect, and the gap between falling spot prices and rising physical supply risk is now the widest it has been all summer.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of July 30, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 31, July 31, 2026.

Greece finally prints a fresh Oleista reading this week at €3.80/kg — essentially flat against the €3.83/kg carried forward over the previous three weeks — as Italian industrial blenders remain in pause mode. But the real story out of Greece this week is not price: deadly wildfires on Crete near Krya Vrysi (Rethymno) and a separate blaze in the Peloponnese killed three firefighters on July 29, destroyed agricultural land, olive groves and warehouses, and forced hundreds of evacuations. Civil Protection has placed Crete, the Peloponnese, the Cyclades, Attica and other regions under Very High (Category 4) fire risk through July 31, with strong winds grounding aerial firefighting on Crete. Messenia and Laconia Q4 2026 allocations now carry a fresh layer of physical risk on top of the month-long Italian buying pause.

• Deadly Wildfires on Crete and in the Peloponnese: Three firefighters killed July 29; olive groves, agricultural land and warehouses destroyed near Rethymno, with a Category 4 fire-risk warning in force across large parts of the country through July 31.
• First Fresh Reading in Four Weeks: €3.80/kg (W31) essentially matches the carried-forward €3.83/kg, meaning the month-long Italian blender pause has not materially repriced Greek bulk oil.
• This Week's Gold Spotlight Is on Crete Itself: Savouidakis Olive Oils (Heraklion) is based on the same island where the wildfires are actively burning groves near Rethymno.

Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a seventh consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — a reference that is now well past the point of being a live price. EU emergency-response authorities have flagged elevated wildfire risk for Italy and Greece in the coming weeks as heat and drought persist, though Apulia itself remains free of active fires for now. With Italian industrial blenders' attention still focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic mill activity remains minimal. The Italy-Greece spread stands at €1.97/kg, comfortably profitable for blenders once trading resumes.

• Reference Price Now Seven Weeks Stale: With no fresh Oleista reading since W25, €5.77/kg carries meaningfully less signal value heading into autumn. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through summer, but the true current level is genuinely uncertain.
• Elevated Wildfire Risk Flagged for the Weeks Ahead: The EU has warned Italy and Greece both face heightened wildfire risk as the Iberian and Balkan heat masses persist, even though no active Italian olive-growing fires are reported this week.
• US Tariff Clarity Holds for Italy: Italian EVOO, like all EU origins, remains on the flat 15% US tariff ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the now-final Section 301 tariffs, which only reshape the picture for non-EU origins.

Spain's wholesale market resumed its decline this week, falling -5.6% to €3.40/kg (W31, Oleista July 30), a fresh cycle low. Spain remains by far the cheapest of the four EU/non-EU bulk-tier origins tracked by the MOPI. The price move comes even as Spain confirmed and then stabilised the largest wildfire in its recorded history — a merged blaze near Ávila and Madrid that burned over 50,000 hectares, forced roughly 60,000 evacuations and damaged the Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex, before being contained on July 29 and the national emergency lifted on July 30. A fourth heatwave of the summer pushed six regions to 40°C on July 29, and a separate fire near Nules/Castellón remains active. National burned area has surged past 207,000 hectares, nearly five times the 20-year average.

• Renewed Slide to a Fresh Cycle Low: Spain's W31 reading falls -5.6% to €3.40/kg, erasing last week's stabilisation and now -58.5% below July 2025.
• Largest Wildfire in Spanish History, Now Stabilised: The merged Ávila/Madrid fire burned over 50,000 hectares before being brought under control on July 29; the national emergency for Ávila and Madrid was lifted July 30, allowing evacuees to return.
• Fourth Heatwave of the Summer: Temperatures reached 40°C in six regions on July 29, with a separate fire near Nules/Castellón still active and a new fire near the Portuguese border forcing further evacuations.
• US Tariff Question Resolved for Spain: Spanish EVOO remains on the EU-US deal's flat 15% ceiling since July 1 — unaffected by the now-final Section 301 tariffs.

Portugal holds unchanged at €3.95/kg for a fifth straight week (W27, June 29 reading carried forward). With Spain at €3.40/kg, Tunisia at €3.71/kg and Greece at €3.80/kg, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group by an even wider margin than last week. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Spain, then Tunisia, then Greece, with Portugal remaining the most expensive by a wide and stable margin. A new fire near the Spanish border prompted the evacuation of around 600 people this week as Portugal feels the edge of the same Iberian heat mass.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update this week). Turkey now trades above every other tracked origin except Portugal following Spain's renewed decline. Izmir continues under stable, favourable 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook, but the confirmed development this week is trade policy: Turkey's 12.5% Section 301 US duty is now final and in effect since July 24, no longer a proposal.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains near 45% of national capacity. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's 12.5% Section 301 US duty, alongside Turkey's, is now confirmed and in effect since July 24 — a finalised new consideration for its US landed-cost profile, even as its non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest elsewhere.

Tunisia's freshest confirmed reading (W30, July 20 update) holds unchanged at €3.71/kg for a second straight print, keeping it the clear second-cheapest bulk-tier origin behind Spain. The notable development this week isn't price but trade policy, now settled rather than pending: USTR's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs took legal effect July 24, and Tunisia does not appear anywhere on the finalised 60-economy list that includes Turkey and Morocco at a confirmed 12.5% additional duty. Tunisian EVOO now has a confirmed, materially lower US landed cost than its North African and Turkish counterparts — a structural advantage that is locked in rather than awaiting final notice.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Peak summer tourist season remains fully active — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers, with direct-to-visitor sales continuing to drive revenue ahead of the autumn competition cycle. No active wildfires have been reported in Croatia's olive-growing regions this week, in contrast to the situation across Spain and Greece.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s consumer certification (launched June 2026) keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of July 31, 2026.

Algeria's projected 2025/26 output of roughly 150,000 tonnes against average domestic consumption of ~81,000 tonnes continues to imply a meaningful exportable surplus, yet actual exports remain a fraction of that potential — only around 1,000-1,200 tonnes shipped in the strongest recent seasons, roughly 1% of production. French imports from Algeria have nonetheless been growing at a 67% annual rate, reaching 735 tonnes in 2024, as organic certification, GlobalGAP and EU phytosanitary documentation gradually fall into place. Algeria is now formally confirmed among the 60 economies subject to USTR's finalised Section 301 forced-labor tariff (effective July 24) — a settled, not proposed, consideration for the small but growing US-bound volume. First larger-scale EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country having attended the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open. Export values remain strong year-on-year, though rising domestic production costs are an emerging watch item for margins heading into the next planting cycle. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. Argentina's finalised 12.5% Section 301 duty is now in effect, though the country remains a minor US EVOO exporter relative to its Asian and European buyers.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. National production is holding near 20,000–21,000 tonnes — the second-highest level since 2021/22 — while exports have climbed to their strongest point in three years as buyers diversify beyond Europe. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea; Australia's finalised 12.5% Section 301 duty is now in effect, a minor consideration given the limited scale of its US-bound EVOO trade.

With the EU-US trade deal in place since July 1, EU olive oil pays a flat 15% all-inclusive US tariff, insulated from the now-final Section 301 forced-labor tariffs. For non-EU competitors, the finalised rule confirms a split field: Tunisia reverts to a materially lower US duty (absent from the 60-economy Section 301 list), while Turkey and Morocco face a confirmed 12.5% rate — a settled, not pending, picture for the competitive gap that has favoured California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment through much of 2026. EUR/USD holding near 1.1480 keeps the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil broadly stable week-on-week. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), set before the worst of this summer's Spanish and Greek fire and heat damage. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set before this month's Spanish wildfire/heatwave and Greek Crete wildfire damage; the October aforo will show how much of the projected Spanish and Greek recovery holds. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the now-final Section 301 forced-labor tariffs.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 31, July 31, 2026. Note: USTR's Section 301 forced-labor tariffs are now final and in effect since July 24 — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), Tunisia reverts to a lower pre-IEEPA MFN duty (confirmed, not on the Section 301 list), while Turkey and Morocco face a confirmed 12.5% additional duty.

Historical Price Context (July 2026 vs. July 2025)

July 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.