Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of June 12, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 25

Efkrato Olive Oil

🇬🇷 Crete, Greece · Organic · High Phenolic · Award-Winning

Premium organic high-phenolic early harvest EVOO produced exclusively from the ancient Cretan Tsounati variety. Created by cousins Andreas & Emmanuel from their families' neighboring groves. Bears the EU Health Claim (Reg. 432/2012) for polyphenol content. Multi-awarded internationally including NYIOOC Gold, Paris Olio Nuovo Days Premium Gold, Athena IOOC Gold, ARISTOLEO, and more.

View Profile →

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market enters Week 25 of 2026 in a state of dramatic bifurcation. Spain collapsed to €3.85/kg — the most severe weekly drop of the campaign — as co-operatives execute end-of-season stock clearance. Greece surged +17.29% to €4.06/kg as Italian blenders raced to secure final Koroneiki allocations. The spread between Spain and Greece has compressed to just €0.21/kg — an extraordinary narrowing that signals strategic buyers are pivoting from cheap Spanish bulk to Greek quality. Italy's €6.09/kg premium holds despite a −1.15% softening, with the ICQRF "Operation Mamma Mia" fraud seizure of 351,600 litres demonstrating why certified origin documentation now commands a price premium. The global olive oil commodity benchmark (IMF/FRED) closed June 2026 at $6,198/tonne — down 33% YoY. The IOC PDO/GI Workshop and ECB rate decision today (June 11) are the week's key institutional developments.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of June 8, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access.

Greece's wholesale olive oil market delivered its most dramatic week of the 2025/26 campaign: prices surged +17.29% in just 10 days to €4.06/kg (W24, Oleista) — driven by an acceleration of Italian blender buying ahead of summer. Greek prices had already been stabilising following weeks of downward pressure, but the convergence of Italy's ongoing supply deficit, the post-NYIOOC quality validation (Greece 3rd globally with 106 awards), and the narrowing of the Spain–Greece gap to just €0.21/kg triggered a rush to lock Koroneiki allocations.

• The Price Surge: Greece's +17.29% weekly gain is the mirror image of Spain's −20.97% collapse. As Spain's co-ops flush end-of-season stocks, premium buyers are concluding that the quality/supply risk equation now favours Greek Koroneiki for H2 2026 contracts.
• Italian Arbitrage Intensifies: The Italy–Greece spread now stands at €2.03/kg (€6.09 vs €4.06). Italian industrial bottlers are directing procurement squarely at Messenia and Laconia lots. Northern European importers are simultaneously competing for the same allocations.
• NYIOOC Validation: Greece's 106 NYIOOC 2026 awards (3rd globally) reinforce quality premium positioning. The IOC PDO/GI Workshop today in Madrid further strengthens the regulatory framework for Greek PDO oils entering European premium retail.

Italian wholesale prices eased marginally to €6.09/kg (W23, −1.15%) — a modest continuation of the buyer stand-off dynamic. Despite recovering volumes (Italy's 2025/26 production estimated at ~300,000 tonnes, up 30% YoY), Italian EVOO maintains a structural premium driven by PDO equity, domestic demand, and now, NYIOOC 2026's confirmation of Italy as the world's most-awarded country. The ICQRF fraud seizure (Operation Mamma Mia: 351,600L Spanish/Greek oil fraudulently labelled Italian) underlines how the premium attracts fraudulent substitution — making certified chain-of-custody a commercial necessity for Italian EVOO buyers.

• Buyer Stand-Off Continues: Industrial bottlers in northern Italy are holding firm below €6.20/kg while mills resist selling at spot when forward risk is rising. Hand-to-mouth trading remains the norm.
• Fraud Crackdown Adds Premium: "Operation Mamma Mia" — 351,600L seized, 90+ investigators — directly validates the value of Italian PDO certification. Buyers are now demanding batch-level CoA and chain-of-custody documents across all Italian EVOO contracts.
• Greece Dependency: Italy's arbitrage buy of Greek Koroneiki at €4.06/kg for domestic blending remains highly profitable at current spread. But Greece's +17.29% move this week signals that Italian merchants may have already triggered the correction they were trying to avoid.

Spain's wholesale market delivered the sharpest single-week shock of the 2025/26 campaign. The national EVOO average collapsed to €3.85/kg (W24, Oleista) — a −20.97% fall in 10 days — as co-operatives executed end-of-season inventory clearance ahead of the summer commercial shutdown. This is structural liquidation, not a demand signal: buyers who were deferring are suddenly confronted with a market that is both cheap today and expensive tomorrow, given the 2026/27 supply risk accumulating.

• End-of-Season Flush: The −20.97% drop is a forced clearance event, not a trend reversal. OliveA reports 70% of 2025/26 production already contracted, stocks at campaign lows. This is the final buying window at sub-€4.00 for the current season.
• 2026/27 Risk Rising: Preliminary 2026/27 data shows −37% flowering fertility. The June 8–10 heat event (post-fruit-set) has further elevated production risk. AEMO expects first heat impact assessments by mid-June.
• Export Power Intact: Spain's export advantage vs domestic Italian oil (€3.85 vs €6.09, −37% gap) continues to drive tanker shipments to Italian blending hubs at record volumes.

Portugal's wholesale market holds at €4.15/kg (W23 Oleista), aligned closely with Greece and slightly above Spain. Following a 2025/26 season that ran approximately 20% below forecast due to rain-disrupted harvesting, Portuguese prices are showing resilience — the Spain–Portugal gap has now effectively inverted, with Portugal trading above Spain at a €0.30/kg premium for the first time in months.

• Portugal Outperforms Spain: For the first time this season, Portugal's €4.15/kg exceeds Spain's collapsed €3.85/kg by €0.30/kg — a structural signal that Iberian price alignment is breaking down in favour of quality-differentiated Portuguese lots.
• Recovery Harvest Trajectory: Stable fruit set conditions in Alentejo and Trás-os-Montes support a 2026/27 recovery after last season's shortfall. Portuguese super-intensive estates (Alentejo) track Spain's pricing closely; traditional northern mills are benefiting from the Portugal–Spain gap re-opening.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, Oleista — most recent available) as the market enters the summer period. Turkish prices remain competitive against Greece (€0.33/kg discount) and offer a viable non-EU alternative for industrial blenders not subject to EU origin requirements. Izmir's excellent 2026/27 fruit set conditions under benign temperatures provide a positive quality outlook.

• IPR-Eligible Blending Target: Italian packagers continue to target Turkish Memecik for high-polyphenol blending correction. As Greek prices rise, Turkish lots at €4.39/kg are gaining relative attractiveness for non-PDO blend components.
• 2026/27 Outlook Positive: Excellent early fruit set conditions in the Izmir region — benign temperatures (22–28°C), no precipitation risk — support a positive quality trajectory for the upcoming Turkish harvest.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg following an abundant 2025/26 harvest. The government continues to manage export quotas to protect domestic supply. Primary dam infrastructure at 45%+ capacity provides a favourable water balance for the 2026/27 season. Morocco's position as a non-EU, non-quota origin makes it an increasingly strategic option for buyers seeking price certainty independent of the Spain/Italy/Greece pricing cycle.

Tunisia holds at €3.93/kg (W23, Oleista) — now the cheapest bulk origin in the MOPI universe, with Spain temporarily below it at €3.85/kg but expected to rebound. Tunisia's record 2025/26 harvest (380,000–400,000 tonnes) has largely moved, with the EU duty-free quota exhausted for the 9th consecutive year. IPR framework continues to handle residual volumes into EU blending operations. The quality story — 49 Geneva 2026 gold medals — continues to support premium pricing for Chetoui lots from northern terraces.

• Floor Holding: With Spain crashing to €3.85/kg, Tunisia's €3.93/kg is now only marginally above the season's cheapest benchmark. Floor support is strong — ONH certification, Geneva gold medals, and IPR route access justify the premium over pure Chemlali bulk.
• EU Quota Strategy: Tunisia continues to negotiate an increase of the duty-free quota from 56,700t/year to 100,000t. The IOC PDO/GI Workshop this week indirectly strengthens Tunisia's case for differentiated access arrangements for certified-quality Chetoui.

Croatia continues to operate in its boutique tier (€13.50–€16.00/kg Istria, €10.00–€13.00/kg Dalmatia), fully detached from the bulk price volatility affecting Spain, Italy and Greece. The country's extraordinary NYIOOC 2026 performance — 128 awards from 144 entries, the highest award rate in the world (88.9%) — has intensified calls from Croatian olive oil associations and the government for a coordinated national branding strategy to commercially leverage this global quality leadership.

• NYIOOC #2 Globally — Commercial Leverage Push: With Croatia ranked 2nd globally and an 88.9% award success rate (highest in the world), Croatian producers and government bodies are pushing hard for a unified "Croatia Premium EVOO" brand to reach premium retail in Germany, Japan, and the US.
• Olive Tourism Peak Season: Summer 2026 marks the critical revenue window for Istrian boutique producers selling direct to international tourists at estate level. The combination of award season boost and tourism-driven sales makes June–August the most important commercial quarter for Croatian EVOO producers.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of June 12, 2026.

Algeria's IOC-projected record 2025/26 harvest (up to 150,000 tonnes) is generating its first meaningful exportable surplus. Export infrastructure remains limited, but the government's EU-standard olive analysis laboratory — inaugurated in 2025 — signals accelerating regulatory readiness. First certified Algerian EVOO consignments to the EU are expected in H2 2026.

Syria's post-Assad recovery in olive oil exports continues into mid-2026. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) is trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg with recent transactions confirmed around $5.27/kg. The new government's free-market reforms are accelerating, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Mediterranean buyers are beginning exploratory engagement with Syrian cooperatives — enhanced due diligence on chain-of-custody remains essential.

Argentina's 2026 harvest (April–June) is now at peak freshness — the optimal window for counter-seasonal Northern Hemisphere buyers is open. Argentine EVOO exports surged +111.85% in value terms in 2025/26. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) represent the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. The falling peso continues to make USD-denominated Argentine exports highly competitive for international buyers.

Australia's 2026 harvest (completed March–June) is also at maximum freshness — AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria are currently the freshest EVOO available globally. Australian premium lots (AUD 10–18/kg, approx. $6.50–$11.50) target Japan, China and South Korea as primary export markets. Japan is Australia's largest premium EVOO buyer, driven by health positioning and counter-seasonal freshness advantage.

The Trump administration's 10% baseline tariff on all imports (April 2026) continues to create a competitive opening for California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment. California producers (harvest October–January) have their current 2025/26 lots on the market. COOC certification remains the world's most stringent standard — acidity below 0.5% vs IOC's 0.8%. Price range: $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season. Global production: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate, −4% YoY).

⭐ Southern Hemisphere — counter-seasonal to Mediterranean. Fresh oil at peak freshness May–July when Northern Hemisphere stocks are oldest.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 25, June 12, 2026.

Historical Price Context (June 2026 vs. June 2025)