Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of November 6, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 45

Koza Olives

🇬🇷 Olynthos, Halkidiki, Greece · Family-Run · Halkidiki & Kalamon · Cold-Pressed · Small-Batch

Koza Olives is the family business of the Kozanidis family in Olynthos, a Halkidiki village with a long olive-growing heritage. Brothers Athanasios and Anastasios Kozanidis build on the work of their father, who began cultivating olives in Northern Greece more than 40 years ago. The family works with two Greek varieties — the large, firm Halkidiki olive and the dark, almond-shaped Kalamon — and cold-presses hand-picked fruit into a green-gold extra virgin oil that is fresh, slightly bitter and peppery. Production is sustainable and deliberately small-batch, and the range includes both premium olive oil and table olives. A timely profile as Northern Greece's harvest gets under way and Greek buyers look for traceable, single-estate oil that stands apart from a bulk market now below €3.50/kg.

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Week 45 split the basin in two: Spain and Italy turned higher, while Greece, Tunisia and Portugal kept falling. In Spain, publication of Order APA/1145/2026 on October 30 removed the legal uncertainty, leaving only the size of the withdrawal (up to 20%) to be fixed before November 15. Oleista's national EVOO average rose to €3.21/kg (W45, +4.2%) and Poolred printed €3.15/kg for October 28–November 3 (virgin €2.88, lampante €2.75), on a thin 29 operations and 1,482 t; the Junta de Andalucía observatory, which covers the previous week, still slipped to €3.03/kg. Italy jumped to €5.18/kg (Oleista W44, +9.1%) as new oil reached the piazze, with Bari at €5.05/kg. Greece fell to €3.30/kg (W45, -3.2%) as the first Koroneiki was paid at €3.00–€3.30/kg in Messinia. Tunisia eased to €3.33/kg (W43) and Portugal's SIMA bulletin put bulk EVOO at €3.47/kg (-2.3%). Our read: Spain should hold €3.10–€3.30/kg until the resolution. A percentage near the farm groups' request would support €3.30–€3.50/kg into December; a low percentage, combined with the November surge in mill intake, would send prices back toward €3.00/kg. Greek new-crop bulk should settle at €3.50–€3.70/kg, below our earlier €3.80–€4.00 base case.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of November 5, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 45, November 6, 2026.

Spain's national average rises to €3.21/kg (Oleista W45, +4.2% on our last print), within a €3.11–€3.30/kg range, with virgin oil at €2.84/kg and lampante at €2.78/kg. Poolred confirms a modest rebound: for October 28–November 3 it recorded EVOO at €3.15/kg, virgin at €2.88/kg and lampante at €2.75/kg, but on only 29 operations and 1,482 t, half last week's volume. The Junta de Andalucía observatory, one week behind, still fell to €3.03/kg for October 26–November 1 (virgin €2.93, lampante €2.84). The driver is policy. Order APA/1145/2026, published in the BOE on October 30, sets the activation condition — opening stocks plus estimated production at 120% of the six-campaign average — and gives the Directorate-General for Production and Markets until November 15 to fix the percentage to be withdrawn, up to a maximum of 20%. Mills will store the oil and choose the category; the percentage applies to monthly cumulative production and can be reduced after December 31. Industry estimates cited in the Spanish press point to a withdrawal of around 12% of a crop forecast above 1.6 Mt. Jaén, expected to produce about 575,000 t, is starting its campaign with the Fiesta del Primer Aceite in Úbeda on November 7–8; Olio Officina quotes new-crop Andalusian Picual at €3.40–€3.60/kg.

• The Rule Is Set, the Number Is Not: With the order in force, the market is pricing the percentage. Thin Poolred volume shows sellers holding back until the resolution.
• New Crop at a Premium: New-crop Picual quotes of €3.40–€3.60/kg sit above old-crop references of €3.03–€3.21/kg.
• Next Data Points: The DG resolution (by November 15), October AICA market data and the first mill-intake figures of 2026/27.

Portugal's official SIMA bulletin for October 26–November 1 puts bulk EVOO at a national average of €3.47/kg, down 2.3% on the week and 19.3% on a year earlier. Oleista's latest reading is €3.54/kg (W43, October 19), with virgin oil at €3.18/kg. The market analysis repeats that Spanish prices set the tone and that low-priced Tunisian oil keeps pressure on Iberian values, leaving many producers unable to cover raw-material and production costs and short of liquidity. Production is projected at up to 175,000 t, driven by new groves in Alentejo — Baixo Alentejo alone accounts for roughly 80% of Portuguese olive oil — while traditional Trás-os-Montes groves enter their picking window.

• Premium Over Spain Narrows to €0.26/kg: Spain rebounded while Portuguese bulk fell, bringing the two origins closer than at any point this autumn.
• Liquidity Over Price: SIMA's warning on producer liquidity suggests continued selling pressure as the Alentejo harvest peaks.

Italy's EVOO average rises to €5.18/kg (Oleista W44, +9.1% on our last print), with virgin oil steady at €3.00/kg and lampante at €2.69/kg. The move reflects new oil reaching ISMEA's market quotes: Bari rose 17.4% to €5.05/kg (October 26) and new oil in Ragusa 6.0% to €13.25/kg (October 27), while Palermo and Trapani held at €6.35/kg (November 3) and Pescara at €12.00/kg (November 2). ISMEA's national weekly average for the fourth week of October was €4.78/kg, up 0.7% on the week and 47.7% below a year earlier. Oil still awaiting the new crop is cheaper: Olio Officina quotes €4.00–€4.10/kg in Andria and Bitonto and €4.00/kg in southern Apulia. Early yields are low — around 10–11% at the large mills of south-eastern Sicily — and Coldiretti expects supermarket shelf prices of no more than €12 per litre this season.

• A Two-Tier Market: New oil commands €5.05/kg in Bari while old-crop Apulian lots stay at €4.00–€4.10/kg — specify crop year in every contract.
• Italy–Spain Gap Back Near €2/kg: The gap widens to €1.97/kg, the largest in weeks, as Italian new oil re-prices.

Oleista's W45 reading puts Greek EVOO at €3.30/kg (-3.2%), with virgin oil at €2.80/kg and lampante at €2.35/kg. The first new-crop Koroneiki is reaching Messinian mills: producer prices range from €3.00–€3.10/kg around Chandrinou and €3.10–€3.20/kg in Pylos to €3.20–€3.30/kg in Chora (November 5). Many growers started early to limit gloeosporium damage; fruit quality is good, but yields are low so far, about 10% around Pylos. In bulk terms, Olio Officina quotes new-crop EVOO (acidity ≤0.5%) at €3.50–€3.60/kg for the Peloponnese and €3.60–€3.70/kg for Crete, ex-loading and excluding VAT, and reports that persistent rain is slowing picking. In Heraklion, the indicative producer price was €3.53/kg for the week to October 18, with Cretan offers at €3.40–€3.80/kg. Single-variety Koroneiki sold as EVOO must now state the variety on labels and documents under the EU rule in force since October 24.

• New Crop Opens Low: At €3.00–€3.30/kg to producers, the first Koroneiki is priced below the €4.10–€4.60 early cooperative deals of October.
• Rain Is the Swing Factor: Wet weather slows picking and raises gloeosporium risk — quality premiums for clean, early lots should widen.

Oleista's latest Tunisian reading eases to €3.33/kg (W43, October 19), with lampante at €2.38/kg (October 25). Olio Officina quotes Sfax EVOO (acidity ≤0.4%) at €3.15–€3.25/kg in flexitank and notes that new-crop oil has not yet reached export markets. Domestically, farmers' union president Dhaoui Midani now puts 2026/27 output at no more than 250,000 t, about 40% below last season's record, with mill prices of 10–15 dinars per litre depending on region and harvest progress. He stresses that Tunisian prices remain tied to international markets, above all to Spain. Tunisia keeps its 56,700 t duty-free EU quota, and Portugal's SIMA bulletin continues to cite low-priced Tunisian oil as a source of pressure on Iberian prices.

• Smaller Crop, Spanish Ceiling: A crop of 250,000 t or less would normally firm prices, but Spain's €3.15–€3.21/kg caps how far new-crop Tunisian offers can rise.
• Watch the First Export Offers: New-crop FOB quotes later in November will show whether the 10–15 TND/L mill level holds.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update). The oil-olive harvest and the new olive oil export season opened on November 1 in a large "on" year — sector assessments cite 500,000–600,000 t. The closing figures for the 2025/26 export season are weak: between November 1, 2025 and September 30, 2026, Turkey exported 19,707 t of olive oil, 60% less than the 49,159 t of a year earlier, worth $105.7 million against $243.9 million; the average export price rose to $5.36/kg from $4.96/kg. Sector representatives met at the Izmir Commodity Exchange to discuss rising costs, price pressure and storage for 2026/27. US-bound lots carry the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 duty, and the EU duty-free quota remains just 100 t against 56,700 t for Tunisia.

Moroccan export offers hold at €4.00–€4.40/kg for Meknès EVOO (acidity ≤0.4%) in flexitank, according to Olio Officina, with no new-crop export offers yet. Domestic prices vary widely: new oil sells at 37–38 MAD per litre at mills in Moulay Yacoub and Taounate, while at the Laâttaouia wholesale market olives trade at 4.00–4.50 MAD/kg and new oil at 45–50 MAD per litre, where producers report good quality but lower yields and picking costs of about 1.50 MAD per kg of olives. With Spain at €3.21/kg, Moroccan oil competes on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price, and US-bound lots carry the settled 12.5% Section 301 duty.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia. Milling costs are rising: Istrian mills report processing fees up two cents to €0.35–€0.37 per kg of olives, with queues forming outside mills, and some northern Dalmatian mills charge €0.33/kg. Istrian growers expect about 15% less fruit than last year but roughly 10% better yields, for an overall loss of 5–10%; direct sales of €20 per litre are under pressure from higher costs. In Dalmatia, the Oblica variety yielded well after last season's 38% shortfall, though yields often fall below 10% and some producers question further price rises given lower prices in Greece and Spain. Istrian organic producers continue to target €36–€40 per litre at retail.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest milling is under way across Spain, Italy, Greece, Croatia and Portugal — the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. In rain-hit Greek groves, add acidity and peroxide checks to the polyphenol panel, and for Greek and Sicilian single-variety oils include total sterols, now that the EU applies a specific limit to monovarietal Koroneiki and Nocellara del Belice. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of November 6, 2026.

Oleista still shows no new Lebanese reading since October 13: EVOO holds at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain back up to €3.21/kg, the Lebanese premium narrows slightly to €2.91/kg — still close to double the Spanish price. Lebanon normally produces 20,000–25,000 t a year, with the south accounting for around a fifth of national output, and access to southern groves remains restricted this season. Supply from southern districts should continue to be treated as at risk for 2026/27, and buyers of Lebanese specialty oil should expect premium pricing to persist.

The West Bank harvest, which officially began on October 15, is in its final weeks under the most difficult conditions on record. The UN's OCHA documented 272 olive-harvest-related settler attacks between September 1 and October 19 — already more than in the entire 2024 and 2025 harvest seasons — resulting in one Palestinian death, 200 injuries and damage to more than 3,200 olive trees and saplings. In the week of October 13–19 alone, 69 people were injured in harvest-related attacks. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should keep shipment windows for 2026/27 lots flexible and expect smaller volumes from affected villages.

Algeria's harvest season is under way, with no new market data this week. Its exportable surplus remains constrained by export infrastructure and certification, and French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now fifteen weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

The harvest continues, with no new official data this week. The preliminary industry forecast still projects Syrian output rising from about 66,000 t to 191,000 t in 2026/27. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its last weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals. Argentine oils are among the eight extra virgin oils from Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Uruguay recognised with the IOC's 2026 Mario Solinas Quality Award for the Southern Hemisphere. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spanish bulk at €3.21/kg and a global surplus forecast for 2026/27, Argentine bulk exporters face a tough price comparison in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro strengthened to A$1.6033 (ECB, November 5, from A$1.5830), making European oil about 1.3% dearer for Australian importers on FX alone — and roughly 5.6% dearer for Spanish EVOO once this week's price rebound is included.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5% — relevant now that Turkey's export season has opened. The euro firmed to $1.1224 (from $1.1133), so the dollar cost of Spanish EVOO is up ~5.1% on the week, combining the price rebound and the stronger euro. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest under way.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). Preliminary industry forecasts put 2026/27 world output at 3.50–3.65 Mt against consumption of ~3.25 Mt — a surplus year — with Spain at ~1.60 Mt (~46% of the total). USDA (August) forecasts ~3.25 Mt. The IOC's 124th Council of Members session takes place in November 2026. Morocco, which chairs the IOC Council in 2026, hosts the session, and World Olive Day follows on November 26.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture has published a national aforo of 1,602,596 t (October 1) and AICA has confirmed 356,914 t of carry-in stocks (September 30); ICQRF puts Italian stocks at 195,044 t (September 30). Greek sector estimates point to 280,000–330,000 t, Tunisia's farmers' union sees no more than 250,000 t, Portugal's SIMA bulletin projects up to 175,000 t, Turkish sector assessments cite 500,000–600,000 t, and preliminary industry figures put Syria at ~191,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 45, November 6, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now fifteen weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Early November 2026 vs. Early November 2025)

Spain's November 2025 reference is Poolred's provisional EVOO price for November 1–7, 2025 (€4,626.91/t, Fundación del Olivar). Italy's year-on-year change is ISMEA's published variation for the fourth week of October 2026 (−47.7%); Portugal's is SIMA's published variation for October 26–November 1 (−19.3%); the 2025 levels are implied from them. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.