Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of October 16, 2026

⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 42

The Circle

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The Circle is a Rome-based farm built on a sustainable, competitive development model that aims to produce the highest-quality food with no impact on the environment. Its vertical aquaponic system — where nutrients from fish feed the plants and the plants purify the water — creates a continuous, circular production cycle, and the farm couples its agricultural, energy and economic processes so that no polluting waste is produced. Alongside its Italian extra virgin olive oil, The Circle holds IFS Food and Vegan certifications — a forward-looking example of innovation in Italian food production as the country's 2026/27 harvest gets under way.

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Week 42 completed Spain's balance sheet. AICA confirmed 356,914 t of carry-in stocks at September 30 — 66,374 t more than a year earlier — so total availability for 2026/27 approaches 1.96 Mt before imports. After last week's sharp fall, Spanish prices are trying to stabilise: Oleista's national average moved to €3.16/kg (W42, +0.6%), having printed €3.26/kg on October 13, and Poolred's average for October 3–9 eased to €3.20/kg (-2.6%), closing most of last week's gap between the two references. Italy is now the weakest market: ISMEA and Oleista both put Italian EVOO at €4.37/kg (-5.8%), with Foggia at €4.00/kg and Bari at €4.30/kg, and the year-on-year fall at 52.8%. Greece holds at €3.66/kg (no new print), Portugal eases to €3.48/kg (W40, -0.6%) and Tunisia remains at €3.53/kg (W40). The policy timetable is fixed: the 2026/27 marketing order must be approved before October 31 and the Ministry will decide on a withdrawal in the first half of November; COAG's estimate of ~188,700 t (11.78%) gives the market a concrete number to price. Globally, a first industry forecast of 3.50–3.65 Mt of output against ~3.25 Mt of demand points to a surplus year. Our read: Spanish prices are likely to move sideways in a €3.10–€3.30/kg range until the 167a decision; a confirmed withdrawal is the main upside risk, while large early-harvest volumes in November are the main downside risk.

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of October 15, 2026 (ECB reference).

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 42, October 16, 2026.

Spain's national average moves to €3.16/kg (Oleista W42, October 15, +0.6% on our last print), with virgin oil at €3.00/kg and lampante at €2.91/kg; earlier in the week Oleista had printed €3.26/kg (October 13), a sign of a market looking for direction rather than falling freely. Poolred's average for October 3–9 was €3.20/kg for EVOO (-2.6%), €3.01/kg for virgin and €2.93/kg for lampante, with Jaén EVOO at €3.21/kg. The key data point of the week was AICA's close of the 2025/26 campaign: production of 1,305,828 t, September outflows of 123,486 t and final stocks of 356,914 t — 175,745 t at mills, 178,292 t with packers and refiners (145,408 t bulk, 32,884 t packed) and 2,878 t in the Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero. That is 66,374 t more than a year earlier, though sales still exceeded 102% of production. With the carry-in known, farm groups renewed their demand to activate the Article 167a withdrawal; COAG estimates that, with average imports of 218,000 t, around 188,700 t would need to be withdrawn — 11.78% of each mill's output — and argues that there is no structural surplus but rather a need for balance, with third-country imports weighing in the critical months. The rule can only be triggered if opening stocks plus estimated output reach at least 120% of the average of the previous six campaigns, and any withdrawal is capped at 20%. The order must be approved before October 31, and the Ministry will decide in the first half of November.

• Carry-In Known, Availability Near 1.96 Mt: 1.6 Mt of new crop plus 357,000 t of stocks — before imports — frames every price discussion until November.
• References Converge: Oleista (€3.16/kg) and Poolred (€3.20/kg) are now within €0.04/kg, compared with a ~€0.20/kg gap last week; the observatory and Ministry series lag and still show €3.44–€3.57/kg.
• Next Data Points: Publication of the 2026/27 marketing order (by October 31), regional aforo revisions and the first AICA monthly data for October.

Oleista's latest Portuguese update puts EVOO at €3.48/kg (W40, September 28, -0.6%) and virgin oil at €3.34/kg — still €0.32/kg above Spain. The weekly market bulletin for September 28 – October 4 notes that prices do not allow national producers to cover raw-material and production costs, causing severe liquidity constraints, while oil quality is good in all regions; INE now projects national output of around 175,000 t, helped by new intensive and super-intensive groves in Alentejo. On October 12, the four main farm organisations — AJAP, CAP, CNA and Confagri — issued a joint position describing the situation of traditional groves as particularly worrying and calling for stronger origin controls (including oil stored under customs regimes), action against fraud and more transparency on price formation. In Alentejo, the harvest has started a little earlier than usual, with growers expecting more volume and good quality.

• Origin Control on the Agenda: The farm groups' call for checks on oil held under customs regimes could tighten documentation requirements for blended lots.
• Harvest Rolling: Alentejo picking is under way; Trás-os-Montes follows from late October. Expect Portuguese offers to track Spain rather than hold at €3.48/kg.

Italy records the week's sharpest fall. ISMEA's national average for EVOO in the second week of October is €4.37/kg, down 5.9% on the week and 52.8% on a year earlier, with virgin oil steady at €3.20/kg and lampante at €2.77/kg; Oleista's W41 reading is identical at €4.37/kg (-5.8% on our last print). Market-level quotes show the breadth of the decline: Bari €4.30/kg (October 5, -5.5%), Foggia €4.00/kg and Brindisi, Lecce and Taranto €4.20/kg (October 8), with Terra di Bari DOP at €4.45/kg. Premium and island markets remain far higher — Trapani €6.70/kg, Ragusa €11.50/kg, Pescara €12.00/kg and Riviera Ligure DOP €13.50/kg. The pressure comes from cheaper foreign oil (ISMEA's September survey priced Spanish, Greek and Tunisian EVOO at €3.63–€3.88/kg) and from high opening stocks, even as the 2026/27 crop is an off-year in the South.

• Gap to Spain Narrows to €1.21/kg: The smallest Italy–Spain spread of the campaign makes Italian-origin programmes more competitive for buyers who need the origin claim.
• Origin Documentation Still in Focus: CoA and PDO/IGP verification remain essential procurement checks for Italian-labelled oil.

Oleista has not published a new Greek reading, so Greece holds at €3.66/kg (W41), with virgin oil at €2.80/kg and lampante at €2.10/kg. The €5.95/kg season-opener for 55 t of early-harvest Laconian oil remains the only new-crop reference; old-crop EVOO trades at about €3.40–€3.75/kg. Market estimates for the 2026/27 crop range from 280,000 to 330,000 t, with ~300,000 t the central scenario, and the base case for new-crop producer prices sits around €3.80–€4.20/kg, with a wider €3.60–€4.40/kg range depending on area, quality and acidity. On the shelf, regular-price EVOO has slipped to roughly €9–€10.50/L. Growers continue to describe harvest labour costs as prohibitive relative to oil prices. This week's orange weather warning (October 13–14) brought heavy rain, storms and local hail, mainly to coastal areas.

• Expected New-Crop Band €3.80–€4.20/kg: Volume Greek EVOO is expected to open close to the €4/kg mark — well below the early-harvest opener.
• Weather Watch: Hail and strong winds during the October 13–14 storms are a fruit-drop risk; watch for local damage reports before confirming November shipments.

Oleista shows no new Tunisian EVOO reading, so Tunisia holds at €3.53/kg (W40, September 28), with lampante at €2.53/kg (October 4). National data released this week underline the strength of the closing campaign: according to the National Statistics Institute (INS), olive oil export receipts reached 4.0 billion dinars by the end of September 2026, up from 2.9 billion a year earlier (+37.4%), on the back of a record ~500,000 t harvest. The outlook for 2026/27 is very different: a member of the Tunisian olive growers' union expects the harvest to fall by 30–40%, with Sidi Bouzid estimating about 350,000 t of olives (against roughly 500,000 t) and Manouba 14,000 t (against more than 20,750 t).

• Smaller Crop, Firmer Offers Likely: A 30–40% drop would cut Tunisia's exportable surplus sharply; expect exporters to hold firmer once the November harvest confirms volumes.
• US Tariff Advantage Holds Firm: Twelve weeks into Section 301 enforcement, Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list remains its clearest structural cost advantage among North African/Turkish origins.

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, no update). Exporters' data show a difficult closing campaign: in the first eleven months of 2025/26, olive oil export value fell to about $105.7 million from $243.9 million a year earlier, even as the average export price rose to $5.36/kg from $4.96/kg. The olive oil export season opens on November 1, and sector voices point to the EU's duty-free quota — just 100 t for Turkey against 56,700 t for Tunisia — as a structural handicap. A Tariş cooperative manager said this week that even an export price of $3.35 per litre does not cover costs, as milling fees and harvest wages rise. The oil-olive harvest opens officially on November 1, in what is expected to be a very large "on" year.

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg as harvesting progresses in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. This week's preliminary industry forecast lists Morocco, with Tunisia and Türkiye, among the origins expected to produce less in 2026/27. The 12.5% Section 301 duty, twelve weeks into enforcement, remains a settled cost for US-bound lots, and with Spain at €3.16/kg Moroccan oil competes on its non-EU, non-quota positioning rather than on price.

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Prices hold at €13.50–€16.00/kg in Istria and €10.00–€13.00/kg in Dalmatia, unchanged on the week. Istrian estates are milling early-harvest, high-phenolic oils from Istarska bjelica, Buža, Leccino and Frantoio, and D8 Adriatic Highway freight routing remains normal nine weeks after the Omiš wildfire. Istria's standing in the Flos Olei guide — where leading estates score 97–99/100 — and Croatia's 2026 NYIOOC result (128 awards, 103 Gold) remain its strongest quality signals for autumn marketing.

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. Early-harvest milling is now under way in Italy, Greece, Croatia, Portugal and Spain's first "primer chorro" areas — the window in which phenolic content peaks, so CoA sampling should happen at milling. Note that heavy rain during picking can dilute phenolic compounds in the fruit. Click any origin to see full details.

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of October 16, 2026.

Oleista's W42 update (October 13) leaves Lebanon unchanged: EVOO at €6.12/kg, virgin at €4.79/kg and lampante at €2.40/kg. With Spain at €3.16/kg, the Lebanese premium stands at €2.96/kg — almost double the Spanish price — confirming its role as a specialty origin serving diaspora and Middle Eastern markets rather than a bulk competitor. The new harvest is now entering its main phase.

The West Bank harvest continues into November and remains a key source of income for around 90,000 families. After a 2025 season that the UN described as one of the most difficult on record, access to groves remains the main risk for this campaign. Buyers of Palestinian fair-trade oil should keep shipment windows for 2026/27 lots flexible.

Algeria's harvest season is opening, with its exportable surplus still constrained by export infrastructure and certification. French buyers continue to take the bulk of certified volumes. Algeria remains among the 60 economies subject to Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, now twelve weeks into full enforcement — a minor consideration for its small US-bound volume.

Syria is the standout in this week's preliminary industry forecast: output is projected to rise from about 66,000 t to 191,000 t in 2026/27, nearly tripling as the October harvest gets under way. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction, and enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement — but a crop of this size would make Syria a meaningful exporter again.

Argentina's April–June 2026 vintage is in its final weeks as the freshest oil on the market before Mediterranean new-crop arrivals, and NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere results continue to roll out through November. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. With Spanish bulk near €3.16/kg and a global surplus forecast for 2026/27, Argentine bulk exporters face a tough price comparison in the US for Q4.

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest is concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria in the fresh-oil marketing window. Exports remain focused on Japan, China and South Korea. The euro firmed to A$1.6218 (ECB, October 15, from A$1.6110), making European oil about 0.7% more expensive for Australian importers on FX alone.

EU olive oil continues to pay the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive tariff, insulated from the Section 301 regime. For non-EU competitors, the split is settled: Tunisia's absence from the 60-economy list keeps its US duty materially lower, while Turkey and Morocco pay 12.5%. The euro edged up to $1.1208 (from $1.1186), so the dollar cost of Spanish EVOO is up ~0.8% on the week including Spain's small price rise — a pause after last week's ~7% drop. California producers have 2025/26 lots on the market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified, with the new harvest under way.

IOC's first formal 2026/27 production estimates (June 2026 Council meeting), with this week's official and sector updates noted. Global production 2025/26: ~3.44 million tonnes; global consumption forecast 3.248 million tonnes (IOC). New this week: preliminary industry forecasts circulated by the World Olive Oil Exhibition put 2026/27 world output at 3.50–3.65 Mt against consumption of ~3.25 Mt — a surplus year — with Spain at ~1.60 Mt (~46% of the total). USDA (August) forecasts ~3.25 Mt.

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded in Q2. IOC 2026/27 estimates were set in June. Since then, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture has published a national aforo of 1,602,596 t (October 1) and AICA has confirmed 356,914 t of carry-in stocks (September 30). Greek sector estimates point to 280,000–330,000 t, Tunisian growers expect a 30–40% decline, INE projects ~175,000 t for Portugal, and preliminary industry figures put Syria at ~191,000 t. US tariff figures for EU origins reflect the EU-US deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling, unaffected by the Section 301 regime.

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 42, October 16, 2026. Note: the US tariff split is now twelve weeks settled — EU-origin oil stays on the EU-US trade deal's flat 15% all-inclusive ceiling (effective since July 1, 2026), while Tunisia settles at a lower MFN-based rate and Turkey/Morocco settle at the confirmed 12.5% Section 301 rate.

Historical Price Context (Mid-October 2026 vs. Mid-October 2025)

Spain's October 2025 reference is Poolred's EVOO average for October 4–10, 2025 (€4.10/kg, via COAG Jaén). Italy's year-on-year change is ISMEA's published variation for the second week of October 2026 (−52.8%); the October 2025 level is implied from it. *Figures marked with an asterisk are carried from the MOPI series and are under review against verified same-period sources; treat as indicative.