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Mediterrolio Olive Oil Market Report — Week of July 10, 2026

Weekly Intelligence Report
The Mediterrolio Index
Mediterranean Olive Oil Price Index (MOPI) | July 10, 2026
Updated: July 10, 2026
Weekly Intelligence
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The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) · July 10, 2026. Spain's rebound extends into a third week: the national average firms further to €3.78/kg (Oleista W28, July 8, +1.08% on a 10-day basis), confirming the summer floor is holding and, if anything, tightening. The headline reversal of the week is Tunisia: its freshest reading (W27, June 29) eases to €3.71/kg, breaking the brief exact parity with Spain reported last week and reopening a modest EU/non-EU discount. Greece continues its post-surge cooling, printing €3.83/kg (W28, July 8) as Italian blenders remain in pause mode. Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a third consecutive week — the €5.77/kg (W25) print now looks increasingly stale as the summer stand-down deepens. Portugal's first fresh reading in a month (W27, June 29) confirms €3.95/kg unchanged, cementing its position as the bulk-tier ceiling. Spain's second major 2026 heatwave has intensified sharply, with Andalusia hitting 42–44°C between July 5–9 and more than 1,000 excess deaths linked to the June–July heat spells nationally. The EUR firmed further to roughly 1.1440 vs USD (ECB, July 6). Follow-up analysis from the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members and the second Olive Oil World Congress continues to circulate, and Washington's Section 122 10% global tariff — covering EU olive oil imports — is set to expire July 24, 2026, absent Congressional action. Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect.
🎯 Buyer's Signal of the Week
Week of July 6 – July 10, 2026
3 Actionable Moves for This Week
  • ⚖️ SPAIN–TUNISIA PARITY BREAKS AFTER ONE WEEK — Spain firms to €3.78/kg while Tunisia eases to €3.71/kg. Last week's rare exact convergence proved short-lived: Spain's W28 reading (July 8, +1.08%/10d) confirms the rebound is still gaining ground, while Tunisia's freshest print (W27, June 29) slips back to €3.71/kg, reopening a €0.07/kg EU/non-EU discount. Blenders who locked blending ratios during the parity window last week should revisit cost assumptions now — the arbitrage that justified pure quality/logistics-based sourcing has narrowed again in Spain's favour for Tunisian buyers.
  • 🔥 SPAIN'S SECOND HEATWAVE INTENSIFIES SHARPLY — Andalusia hits 42–44°C, over 1,000 heat-linked deaths recorded nationally since June. The heatwave that began July 5 pushed Córdoba, Seville and Jaén into orange-to-red alert territory, with tropical nights (24–26°C lows) compounding physiological stress on both people and rain-fed groves. Combined with the confirmed fruitlet losses from the earlier June event, this is the clearest signal yet that 2026/27 Spanish supply risk is compounding rather than stabilising. Buyers still sitting on the sidelines for forward Spanish contracts should treat this week's flat-to-firm pricing as the last easy entry point before autumn repricing.
  • 🇺🇸 US SECTION 122 TARIFF SET TO EXPIRE JULY 24, 2026 — plan Q3 US-bound shipments around the deadline now. The 10% global tariff currently applied to EU olive oil imports into the US is scheduled to lapse in two weeks absent Congressional extension. Buyers with flexibility on shipment timing should model both scenarios (tariff extended vs. expired) before locking August delivery contracts — a lapse would meaningfully improve landed economics for Spanish and Greek EVOO into the US relative to this week's calculator figures.
⭐ Gold Member Spotlight · Week 28
🇬🇷 Peania, Attica, Greece · Family Estate Since 1870 · Koroneiki, Klonara & Maronias
"Mesogeiaki Elaiones" — the company behind Mesi Gaia — is the continuation of a traditional, family-owned olive-processing business operating in the Mesogeio region of Attica since 1870. Today the estate combines that heritage with modern, state-of-the-art standardised extra virgin production at its Paiania facility, working a distinctive Attican palette of Koroneiki, Klonara and Maronias varieties. BIO and ISO 22000 certified, Mesi Gaia's cabinet of awards — including Berlin Global Olive Oil Awards Gold (Quality, Organic), Olivalue Athens Gold and multiple Specialist Awards medals — reflects four generations of family stewardship translated into consistent, high-quality EVOO.
📰 Industry News This Week
IOC · Lisbon Follow-Up · July 2026
Post-Congress analysis from Lisbon frames climate adaptation as the sector's top 2026/27 priority. In the days following the 123rd Council of Members and the second Olive Oil World Congress (June 29 – July 3), follow-up commentary from delegations has centred on climate-resilient cultivar research, farm digitalisation and market authenticity as the three workstreams carried forward from Lisbon. The IOC's Technical and Standardisation Committees are expected to issue follow-up guidance in the coming months.
Weather Crisis · Spain · July 5-9, 2026
Spain's second major heatwave peaks at 42-44°C; national heat-death toll passes 1,000 since June. Andalusia entered orange-to-red alert levels as the heatwave that began July 5 pushed Córdoba, Seville and Jaén toward their hottest readings of the summer, with tropical overnight lows of 24-26°C offering little recovery. Spain's Carlos III Health Institute has now linked more than 1,000 excess deaths to the combined June-July heat spells — underlining the scale of 2026's summer heat stress on both public health and rain-fed olive groves.
Production Rankings · Tunisia/Italy
Tunisia formally overtakes Italy as the world's second-largest olive oil producer. Reporting this week (Il Sole 24 Ore) confirms Tunisian 2025/26 output is on track to exceed 380,000-400,000 tonnes against roughly 300,000 tonnes expected in Italy, cementing a structural shift in Mediterranean supply rankings even as Italy's own production recovers roughly 30% year-on-year from a weak prior season.
Trade Policy · USA · Section 122
US 10% global tariff on EU olive oil imports set to expire July 24, 2026. The Section 122 tariff currently applied to Spanish, Greek, Italian and Portuguese EVOO shipments into the United States is scheduled to lapse in two weeks unless extended by Congress. Buyers and importers with Q3 US-bound contracts are advised to model both tariff scenarios before finalising shipment timing.
Weekly Producer Prices (At Source)
Region / Country Extra Virgin (EVOO) Virgin (VOO) Trend
Spain (National · Oleista W28, July 8) €3.662 – €3.888/kg · avg €3.78 €3.17 – €3.43/kg · avg €3.30 ↑ +1.08% / 10 days · Rebound extends for a third week
Italy (National · Oleista W25 — no new reading, 3rd week) €5.60 – €5.93/kg · avg €5.77 €3.50/kg ↔ Unchanged · Reference now stale through summer recess
Greece (National · Oleista W28, July 8) €3.70 – €3.95/kg · avg €3.83 €2.87/kg ↓ Continues cooling from W26 surge peak
Tunisia (Export · ONH · W27, June 29) €3.58 – €3.84/kg · avg €3.71 €2.68/kg (Lampant, July 5) ↓ Parity with Spain breaks; discount reopens
Croatia (Istria/Dalmatia) €13.50 – €16.00/kg (Istria) · €10.00–€13.00/kg (Dalmatia) ↔ Boutique · Peak tourism season direct sales active
Portugal (National · Oleista W27, June 29) €3.80 – €4.10/kg · avg €3.95 €3.30/kg ↔ Fresh reading confirms unchanged · Bulk-tier ceiling holds
Turkey (Export · Izmir · W13, stale) €4.20 – €4.60/kg · avg €4.39 €3.26/kg ↔ No fresh reading · Discount to Greece narrows further
Morocco (Export · Fès-Meknès) €4.00 – €4.30/kg ↔ Plentiful 2025/26 crop · Dam levels near 45%
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📈 12-Month EVOO Price History (€/kg)
Wholesale EVOO bulk prices at source (€/kg), monthly midpoints Aug 2025 → Jul 2026. Sources: IOC, POOLred/Mercacei, Oleista. Jul 2026 reflects W28 (Spain, Greece, July 8) and latest available (Italy W25, Tunisia W27) data.
Market Summary & Forecasts

The Mediterranean wholesale olive oil market extends its consolidation into a second week, but with a clearer directional split emerging between origins. Spain firms further to €3.78/kg (W28, Oleista July 8, +1.08% on a 10-day basis) — the third consecutive week of gains, confirming the summer floor established in late June is holding and tightening rather than merely stabilising. Tunisia's freshest reading (W27, June 29) eases to €3.71/kg, breaking last week's rare exact parity with Spain and reopening a modest €0.07/kg discount. Greece continues its post-surge cooling, printing €3.83/kg (W28, July 8) as Italian blenders remain in pause mode — consistent with the hand-to-mouth cycle observed through June. Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a third consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) as the reference grows increasingly stale. Portugal's first fresh reading in a month (W27, June 29) confirms €3.95/kg unchanged, cementing its position as the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group by a margin of €0.12–€0.17/kg over its peers. The EUR firmed further to roughly 1.1440 vs USD (ECB, July 6) — a continued modest headwind for non-EU buyers finalising Q3 2026 contracts. Spain's intensifying second heatwave and the looming July 24 expiration of the US Section 122 tariff frame the two biggest swing factors for the weeks ahead. Summer thin-trading conditions remain fully in effect.

Firming Further
Spain
€3.78/kg · W28 +1.08%/10d
Parity Breaks ↓
Tunisia
€3.71/kg · discount reopens
Continues Cooling
Greece
€3.83/kg · buying wave still paused
Stale 3rd Week
Italy
€5.77/kg · summer recess
Confirmed Ceiling
Portugal
€3.95/kg · fresh reading, unchanged
🛒 Retail Price Gap Tracker

A structural 60–90 day time-lag separates wholesale corrections from supermarket shelf prices. The data below compares current wholesale "at source" vs. verified retail shelf prices in three key import markets — revealing the margin supermarkets are currently capturing.

🇩🇪 Germany (€/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W28)≈ €4.28/L
Lidl / Aldi private label€7.50–€8.00/L
Rewe / Bertolli brand€9.00–€12.00/L
Discounter margin+75–87%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (£/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, W28)≈ £3.58/L
Lidl Primadonna (500ml)£9.98/L equiv.
Tesco / Sainsbury's own£10–£14/L
Discounter margin+179%
🇺🇸 United States ($/L EVOO)
Spanish bulk (landed, +10% tariff)≈ $4.75/L
Trader Joe's 1L EVOO$11.00/L
Premium / organic brands$18–$34/L
Supermarket margin+132%
💡 Key insight (Week 28): Spain firms to €3.78/kg — still −53.9% below July 2025 (€8.20/kg) — yet supermarket shelf prices remain well above their pre-crisis baseline decline. Tunisia's easing to €3.71/kg ends last week's brief parity with Spain, while Greece's continued cooling to €3.83/kg keeps a three-origin band within €0.12/kg. EUR/USD firming further to ~1.1440 modestly raises landed cost for US buyers this week, though the looming July 24 tariff expiration could reverse that dynamic for Q3 shipments.
💱 MOPI FX Impact Calculator

All MOPI prices are quoted in EUR. Click a currency to instantly convert all wholesale prices. Rates as of July 6, 2026 (ECB reference).

Show in:

Mid-market rates ECB July 6 2026: EUR/USD 1.1440 · EUR/GBP 0.8630 · EUR/JPY 185.50 · EUR/AUD ≈1.647. Verify with your bank for transactional use.

☀️ Weather & Agronomic Conditions

Current weather conditions across key producing regions and their impact on the 2026/27 crop cycle. Impact is assessed relative to the current phenological stage — the same weather can be beneficial or harmful depending on what stage the olive tree is at.

🇪🇸 Andalusia, Spain
🔥🔥
Temperature
38–44°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Growth / Severe Water Stress ⚠️
🚨 Second Heatwave Peaks at 42-44°C: The heatwave that began July 5 intensified through the week, pushing Córdoba, Seville and Jaén into orange-to-red alert territory with tropical overnight lows of 24-26°C offering little recovery. Spain's Carlos III Health Institute now links more than 1,000 excess deaths to the combined June-July heat spells nationally. Rain-fed groves face acute secondary fruitlet-drop risk; irrigation-equipped super-intensive estates continue to cope better. Combined with the confirmed 3-7% fruitlet loss from the June event and structural -30%+ flowering fertility, 2026/27 Spanish EVOO supply risk is compounding further.
🇮🇹 Apulia, Italy
☀️
Temperature
31–34°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Warmer but Still Favourable: Apulia has warmed to typical mid-summer levels (31-34°C, dry) but remains well short of Spain's extremes. Active fruit growth continuing on a positive trajectory. No new Oleista Italian reading for a third straight week — bulk prices hold at €5.77/kg through the deepening summer stand-down. Italy's 2025/26 production recovery (~300,000 tonnes nationally, +30% YoY, with Apulia at 150,000-160,000 tonnes) continues to underpin Xylella-recovery optimism ahead of autumn.
🇬🇷 Peloponnese & Crete
☀️
Temperature
31–33°C
Rainfall
Dry, rainless
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Hot and Dry, Rain Chance Faded: Peloponnese and Crete have reverted to typical rainless mid-summer conditions (31-33°C) after last week's brief shower chance failed to materialise meaningfully. Koroneiki fruitlet retention remains excellent. The continued W28 ease to €3.83/kg reflects Italian blenders still in pause mode rather than any change in crop outlook; Messenia and Laconia Q4 2026 allocations continue to thin.
🇹🇷 Izmir Region, Turkey
☀️
Temperature
30–34°C
Rainfall
Mostly dry
Stage
Active Fruit Growth
✅ Favourable: Izmir remains under stable, hot-but-typical July conditions. Ayvalık and Memecik variety groves continue excellent active fruit development. No fresh Oleista reading keeps Turkey at €4.39/kg — the discount to Greece narrows further to €0.56/kg as Greek prices continue easing.
🇹🇳 Sfax & Sahel, Tunisia
☀️
Temperature
34–38°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Normal Peak-Summer Conditions: Sfax and Sahel under typical seasonal heat (34-38°C, dry, breezy). Fruit development proceeding normally. Tunisia's latest reading (€3.71/kg, W27) eases back below Spain, ending last week's brief parity. EU duty-free quota (56,700t) remains fully allocated for the 9th consecutive year; IPR route active for residual export volumes.
🇲🇦 Fès-Meknès & Marrakech
Temperature
29–35°C
Rainfall
Dry / mild
Stage
Fruit Development
✅ Positive Conditions: Morocco's national dam reservoirs continue trending near 45% of capacity, with several basins (Loukkos, Bouregreg) tracking above last year's levels. Fruit development proceeding well in Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota status continues to offer supply-chain diversification appeal for buyers seeking price certainty outside Mediterranean quota dynamics.
🇭🇷 Istria & Dalmatia, Croatia
☀️
Temperature
26–32°C
Rainfall
Rare
Stage
Fruit Growth
✅ Peak Tourism Season: Croatian Adriatic remains in full peak summer tourist season — the primary commercial window for direct-to-visitor estate sales. Fruit growth proceeding under favourable, increasingly dry conditions. Boutique pricing (€13.50-€16.00/kg Istria, €10.00-€13.00/kg Dalmatia) stays detached from bulk-tier dynamics.
🇵🇹 Alentejo & Trás-os-Montes
Temperature
28–34°C
Rainfall
Dry
Stage
Early Fruit Growth
✅ Warming, Recovery on Track: Portugal enters mid-July under warmer, dry early fruit growth conditions. At €3.95/kg, confirmed unchanged by the season's first fresh reading in a month (W27), Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the four bulk-tier origins. The January 2026 VAT cut to 6% on mainland olive oil production continues to support grower margins as the 2025/26 season (estimated ~150,000 tonnes) wraps up.
📌 Phenological note (Week of July 6 – 10, 2026): Spain remains inside a sharply intensifying second 2026 heatwave, with severe fruitlet-drop risk in rain-fed groves and a mounting public-health toll. Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Croatia are in active/favourable fruit growth under typical, increasingly dry mid-summer heat. Tunisia and Morocco are in normal fruit development. Portugal is in early fruit growth with a warming trend. Spain's escalating heat stress and the reopening Spain–Tunisia price gap are the two defining agronomic and commercial threads of Week 28.
⚖️ MOPI Country Comparison Tool

Compare two origins side-by-side across price, quality, polyphenols, freight and EU market access. Prices updated for Week 28, July 10, 2026.

Analysis by Country
🇬🇷 Greece

Greece's wholesale market continues to ease, printing €3.83/kg (Oleista W28, July 8) — a third straight week of cooling from the €3.93/kg season high hit in late June. Italian industrial blenders remain in pause mode, extending the digestion period that followed their two-week buying spree. This is still the hand-to-mouth procurement pattern rather than a reversal of underlying tightness — allocations of Q4 2026 Messenia and Laconia Koroneiki continue to shrink as the summer recess deepens. Greece has slipped back above both Spain (€3.78) and Tunisia (€3.71), keeping Greek EVOO at the top of a tight three-origin cluster spanning just €0.12/kg.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Peloponnese (Messenia/Laconia)€3.75 – €4.05/kg
Crete (Chania/Heraklion)€3.65 – €3.95/kg
Lesbos & Aegean Islands€3.55 – €3.85/kg
Premium Organic / Single Estate (Mani)€4.70 – €5.30/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Italian Buying Wave Still Paused: A third consecutive week without a re-entry surge from Italian blenders — the longest pause of the current hand-to-mouth cycle observed since May. Expect the next re-entry to arrive with more force as Q4 2026 volumes become harder to secure the longer the pause continues.
  • Back to the Top of the Cluster: At €3.83/kg, Greece now sits above both Spain (€3.78) and Tunisia (€3.71) — a reversal from last week's middle position, as Spain firmed and Tunisia eased simultaneously.
  • Producer Inventory Winding Down Further: Greek cooperatives remain deep in the seasonal lull; new commercial listings stay minimal through July-August as the sector shifts to CoA documentation and competition-sample preparation, including the July 31 Berlin GOOA Southern Hemisphere entry deadline for cross-hemisphere producers.
🇮🇹 Italy

Italy carries no new Oleista reading for a third consecutive week, holding at €5.77/kg (W25) — a reference that now looks increasingly stale as the summer stand-down deepens. With Italian industrial blenders' attention still focused on Greek and Spanish procurement, domestic mill activity remains minimal. The Italy-Greece spread has widened slightly to €1.94/kg as Greece continues to cool, still comfortably profitable for blenders. Separately, this week's reporting confirms Tunisia has formally overtaken Italy as the world's second-largest olive oil producer, with Tunisian 2025/26 output on track for 380,000-400,000 tonnes against roughly 300,000 tonnes in Italy — even as Italian production itself recovers about 30% year-on-year from a weak prior season.

Region / Prestige CategoryWholesale EVOO Price Range
Apulia (Bari/Foggia – Bulk Base)€5.60 – €5.93/kg
Sicily (Val di Mazara / PDO Bulk)€6.00 – €6.35/kg
Tuscany / Umbria (Premium IGP/PDO)€7.50 – €8.50/kg
Calabria (Commercial EVOO Blend Base)€5.50 – €5.90/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Reference Price Growing Stale: With no fresh Oleista reading for three weeks running, €5.77/kg is now a lagging indicator rather than a live price. Italian mills are expected to resist further declines through summer, but the true current level is genuinely uncertain heading into autumn.
  • Tunisia Overtakes Italy in Production Rankings: This week's confirmation that Tunisia has surpassed Italy as the world's No. 2 producer reinforces the structural shift already visible in bulk pricing, where Tunisian EVOO now undercuts Italian bulk by roughly €2/kg.
  • Attica's Estate Producers in the Spotlight: Mesi Gaia of Peania, Attica — this week's Gold Member Spotlight — exemplifies the same family-estate, multi-generational tradition seen among Italy's best artisan producers, reinforcing the premium narrative both countries share heading into autumn selling.
🇪🇸 Spain

Spain's wholesale market firms further to €3.78/kg (W28, Oleista July 8, +1.08% on a 10-day basis) — a third consecutive weekly gain that confirms the rebound is still building rather than merely holding a plateau. The headline development is Spain pulling back ahead of Tunisia, ending last week's brief exact parity. Meanwhile Andalusia's second major 2026 heatwave has intensified sharply since July 5, with Córdoba, Seville and Jaén hitting 42-44°C under orange-to-red alerts, and Spain's Carlos III Health Institute now linking more than 1,000 excess deaths nationally to the combined June-July heat spells.

Agricultural HubWholesale EVOO Price Range
Jaén (Principal Co-op Market Baseline)€3.65 – €4.05/kg
Andalusia (Regional avg, W27)€3.87/kg (sub-regional lag)
Catalonia (Siurana / Premium Arbequina)€4.20 – €4.60/kg
Key Market Dynamics This Week:
  • Rebound Extends to a Third Week: Spain's W28 reading confirms sustained upward momentum since late June — co-op restocking demand has not exhausted itself, and the +1.08% 10-day gain suggests the floor found in late June is now firming into a genuine uptrend.
  • Second Heatwave Intensifies Sharply: The heatwave that began July 5 pushed daytime highs to 42-44°C with tropical overnight lows of 24-26°C offering little recovery. Spain's national heat-death toll has now passed 1,000 for the combined June-July period — one of the most severe summer heat crises on record.
  • 2026/27 Supply Risk Compounding: Continued heat exposure adds to the confirmed 3-7% fruitlet loss from the earlier June event and the structural -30%+ flowering fertility already on record. Forward contract conversations for Q4 2026/Q1 2027 remain the clear priority for buyers this week.
🇵🇹 Portugal

Portugal holds at €3.95/kg, now confirmed by the season's first fresh Oleista reading in a month (W27, June 29) — the price itself is unchanged, but the new data point removes the staleness flag carried for the past several weeks. With Spain at €3.78/kg and Tunisia at €3.71/kg, and Greece at €3.83/kg, Portugal remains the clear ceiling of the bulk-tier group by €0.12-€0.24/kg. Blenders seeking the cheapest EU-origin EVOO this week turn first to Tunisia, then Spain, then Greece, with Portugal the most expensive by a widening margin.

RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Alentejo (Super-Intensive / Modern Estates)€3.80 – €4.05/kg
Trás-os-Montes (Traditional Mountain Groves)€4.10 – €4.45/kg
Centro / Ribatejo (Blended Commercial Base)€3.90 – €4.15/kg
🇹🇷 Turkey

Turkish EVOO holds at €4.39/kg (W13, most recent Oleista reading, no update this week). With Greece continuing to cool to €3.83/kg, Turkey's discount to Greece narrows further to €0.56/kg. Izmir continues under stable, favourable 2026/27 fruit growth conditions, keeping Memecik and Ayvalık on track for a strong quality outlook.

🇲🇦 Morocco

Morocco continues trading at €4.00–€4.30/kg. Dam infrastructure remains near 45% of national capacity, with several basins tracking above prior-year levels. Normal fruit development conditions persist across Fès-Meknès and Marrakech-Safi. Morocco's non-EU, non-quota market positioning continues to attract supply-chain diversification interest as the EU-origin price spread widens again this week.

🇹🇳 Tunisia

Tunisia's most recent reading (W27, June 29 update) eases to €3.71/kg, ending last week's rare exact parity with Spain and reopening a €0.07/kg discount — a reversal from the defining story of Week 27. This week's separate confirmation that Tunisia has formally overtaken Italy as the world's second-largest producer underscores the structural shift underway even as spot pricing eases. The EU duty-free quota (56,700t) remains exhausted for the 9th consecutive year; IPR routing continues for residual EU-destined volumes. With Spain at €3.78 and Greece at €3.83, blenders again have a modest but real EU/non-EU price gap to work with heading into the summer recess.

🇭🇷 Croatia

Croatia operates entirely in its boutique premium tier, detached from bulk price dynamics. Peak summer tourist season remains fully active — the primary commercial window for Croatian estate producers, with direct-to-visitor sales continuing to drive revenue ahead of the autumn competition cycle.

Producing RegionWholesale EVOO Price Range
Istria Peninsula (Ultra-Premium / High Polyphenol)€13.50 – €16.00/kg
Zadar / Northern Dalmatia (Boutique Cooperatives)€11.00 – €13.00/kg
Southern Dalmatia & Islands (Traditional Hand-Picked)€10.00 – €12.50/kg
🧬 Polyphenol & Quality Profile Index

Polyphenols are the key health-active antioxidants in EVOO. EU health claim threshold: 250 mg/kg. QvExtra!'s consumer certification (launched June 2026) keeps polyphenol documentation commercially valuable heading into the new campaign. Click any origin to see full details.

EU Health Claim (Regulation 432/2012) + QvExtra! 2026 Certification: An olive oil may carry the claim "olive oil polyphenols contribute to the protection of blood lipids from oxidative stress" if it contains ≥250 mg/kg of hydroxytyrosol and its derivatives. QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification provides a consumer-facing channel to communicate these claims — a commercial differentiator for high-phenolic producers. Always request the Certificate of Analysis (CoA).
🌍 Global Producers — Beyond the Mediterranean

While the Mediterranean basin remains the centre of global olive oil production, Southern Hemisphere and Middle East origins continue to gain market share. The following overview tracks key non-Mediterranean origins monitored by the MOPI for the week of July 10, 2026.

Middle East & North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria

Algeria's projected 2025/26 output of roughly 150,000 tonnes against average domestic consumption of ~81,000 tonnes continues to imply a meaningful exportable surplus, yet actual exports remain a fraction of that potential — only around 1,000-1,200 tonnes shipped in the strongest recent seasons, roughly 1% of production. French imports from Algeria have nonetheless been growing at a 67% annual rate, reaching 735 tonnes in 2024, as organic certification, GlobalGAP and EU phytosanitary documentation gradually fall into place. First larger-scale EU consignments remain expected in H2 2026.

Region / Grade Wholesale Price Range Notes
Kabylie Region (Traditional)€5.50 – €7.00/kgPremium mountain-grown. Export documentation gradually maturing.
Industrial / Bulk (National)€4.20 – €5.50/kgLarge exportable surplus theoretically available; export infrastructure remains the binding constraint.
🇸🇾 Syria

Syria's post-transition recovery in olive oil exports continues, with the country having attended the IOC's Lisbon Council of Members session as an observer late last month. Northwest Syrian EVOO (Idlib/Aleppo) continues trading at approximately $4.80–$5.30/kg. Government free-market reforms are advancing, though logistics and certification infrastructure remain under reconstruction. Enhanced chain-of-custody due diligence remains essential for any commercial engagement.

New World Producers
🇦🇷 Argentina

Argentina's April–June 2026 harvest is fully complete, with the fresh vintage moving into steady distribution as the counter-seasonal window for Northern Hemisphere buyers remains open. Export values remain strong year-on-year, though rising domestic production costs are an emerging watch item for margins heading into the next planting cycle. Mendoza Arauco lots (700+ mg/kg polyphenols) remain the global ultra-premium benchmark at $7.00–$11.00/kg. The falling peso continues to make USD-denominated exports competitive.

🇦🇺 Australia

Australia's March–June 2026 harvest has concluded, with AOA-certified lots from South Australia and Victoria moving through the fresh-oil marketing window. National production is holding near 20,000–21,000 tonnes — the second-highest level since 2021/22 — while exports have climbed to their strongest point in three years as buyers diversify beyond Europe. Primary export focus remains Japan, China and South Korea.

🇺🇸 United States (California)

The Section 122 10% baseline US tariff on EU olive oil imports is scheduled to expire July 24, 2026 absent Congressional extension, injecting fresh uncertainty into the competitive gap that has favoured California COOC-certified EVOO in the domestic premium segment since early 2026. EUR/USD firming further to roughly 1.1440 (from 1.1394 the week before) modestly raises the effective landed cost for US buyers of EU-origin oil ahead of any tariff decision. California producers have 2025/26 lots on market at $8.00–$15.00/kg COOC-certified.

Global Production Context — MOPI Reference Table

Share of global olive oil exports by value. Source: Tridge / IOC, 2025/26 season. Global production: ~3.44 million tonnes (IOC estimate).

Country Export Share EVOO Price Tier (July 2026) Harvest Season
🇩🇿 AlgeriaEmerging (<0.1%)€4.20–€7.00/kgOct – Jan
🇸🇾 SyriaRecovery phase$4.80–$5.30/kgOct – Dec
🇦🇷 Argentina~1.84% (strong YoY value)$3.80–$11.00/kgApr – Jun (harvest complete)
🇨🇱 Chile~1.00%$4.00–$8.70/kgApr – Jun (harvest complete)
🇦🇺 Australia<0.5% (3-yr export high)AUD 7–18/kgMar – Jun (harvest complete)
🇺🇸 USA (California)~0.51%$8.00–$15.00/kgOct – Jan

Southern Hemisphere origins are counter-seasonal to the Mediterranean; their 2026 harvests concluded through Q2 and are now moving through the fresh-vintage marketing window while Mediterranean supply enters its leanest pre-harvest months. US tariff figures reflect the Section 122 10% global rate, scheduled to expire July 24, 2026.

🧮 MOPI Delivered Cost Calculator

Calculate the full landed cost of bulk EVOO from any Mediterranean origin to your destination. Prices updated for Week 28, July 10, 2026. Note: the US 10% tariff (Section 122) is scheduled to expire July 24, 2026 — model both scenarios for Q3 shipments.

Strategic Market Insights & Logistics
⚖️ Spain–Tunisia Parity Breaks After One Week — the Blending Arbitrage Reopens: Last week's rare exact convergence at €3.73/kg lasted only seven days. Spain's continued firming to €3.78/kg alongside Tunisia's easing to €3.71/kg reinstates a €0.07/kg EU/non-EU discount. Blenders who repositioned during the parity window should revisit blending ratios now — the pure quality/logistics-based sourcing decision of last week has reverted to a price-driven one.
⚡ Greece's Cooling Extends to a Third Week — the Pause Is Longer Than Prior Cycles: The W28 ease to €3.83/kg marks the longest stretch without an Italian re-entry surge since the hand-to-mouth pattern began in May. Buyers should watch closely: the longer blenders wait, the more forceful the eventual re-entry is likely to be as Q4 2026 allocations continue thinning. Monitor the Oleista Greece reading weekly for signs of the next surge leg.
🔥 Spain's Second Heatwave Escalates Sharply — Death Toll Passes 1,000, Supply Risk Compounds: The heatwave that began July 5 pushed Andalusia to 42-44°C under orange-to-red alerts, with Spain's Carlos III Health Institute now linking more than 1,000 excess deaths nationally to the combined June-July heat spells — one of the most severe summer heat crises on record. Combined with the confirmed 3-7% fruitlet retention loss from the June event and structural -30%+ flowering fertility, the case for locking 2026/27 forward volumes at or near current levels continues to strengthen materially week over week.
🇺🇸 US Section 122 Tariff Set to Expire July 24, 2026 — Plan Q3 Contracts Around the Deadline: The 10% global tariff currently applied to EU olive oil imports into the United States is scheduled to lapse in two weeks absent Congressional extension. Buyers with flexibility on shipment timing should model both scenarios before finalising August delivery contracts; a lapse would materially improve landed economics for Spanish, Greek and Portuguese EVOO into the US relative to this week's calculator figures.

Historical Price Context (July 2026 vs. July 2025)

Market Benchmark (EVOO Bulk)Current Price (July 2026)Historical Price (July 2025)Year-over-Year Change
Spain (Jaén Baseline)€3.78/kg€8.20/kg↓ −53.9%
Italy (Bari Bulk)€5.77/kg€9.10/kg↓ −36.6%
Greece (Chania Average)€3.83/kg€6.90/kg↓ −44.5%
Tunisia (Sfax Export)€3.71/kg€6.50/kg↓ −42.9%
Portugal (Alentejo)€3.95/kg€6.30/kg↓ −37.3%
Global Benchmark (IMF/FRED, latest available)~$6,150/tonne~$9,200/tonne↓ −33.2%

July 2025 figures reflect the last verified same-period readings available; treat as indicative where noted.


Q3 2026 Risk Assessment Matrix
Risk FactorImpact LevelMitigation Strategy
Spain 2026/27 Supply Tightening — Second heatwave intensified to 42-44°C, over 1,000 heat-linked deaths nationally since June; confirmed 3-7% fruitlet loss; −30%+ flowering fertility; W28 price firms +1.08%/10d to €3.78/kg High Accelerate 2026/27 forward contract discussions with Spanish cooperatives now. The intensifying heat crisis raises the probability of further fruitlet loss beyond the confirmed 3-7%. Early commitments near current levels represent meaningful value versus expected Q4 pricing.
Greece Hand-to-Mouth Cycle, Extended Pause — third consecutive week of cooling to €3.83/kg with no Italian re-entry; summer recess reducing liquidity further High Monitor Oleista Greece readings weekly. The longer the pause extends, the more forceful the eventual re-entry surge is likely to be. Target Greek procurement at €3.75–€3.90/kg. Avoid panic-buying once the surge begins.
Spain–Tunisia Discount Reopens — one-week parity at €3.73/kg has already broken; Spain now trades €0.07/kg above Tunisia and the gap may widen further as Spain's rebound continues Medium Confirm Tunisian IPR contractor relationships now if pursuing H2 2026 volumes at the reopened discount. Lock blending ratios before Spain's cooperative administration shifts fully into summer recess mode.
Tunisia Quota Exhaustion — 9th consecutive year fully allocated; IPR route required for EU-destined volumes High Confirm IPR contractor relationships for H2 2026 volumes immediately. Tunisia's renewed discount to Spain this week makes the value proposition compelling but access still requires IPR framework engagement.
Italy No-Reading Risk — €5.77/kg reference is now three weeks stale; true current level increasingly uncertain through summer recess Medium Treat €5.77/kg as a floor reference rather than a live price. Autumn recovery toward €6.00+/kg remains the base case as packager demand returns and Tunisia's production-ranking overtake reshapes competitive dynamics; do not extrapolate the summer stand-down into 2026/27 pricing assumptions.
US Section 122 Tariff Expiration — 10% global tariff on EU olive oil imports scheduled to lapse July 24, 2026 absent Congressional extension High Model both tariff-extended and tariff-expired scenarios before finalising Q3 US-bound shipment contracts. A lapse would materially improve landed economics for Spanish, Greek and Portuguese EVOO relative to current calculator figures — consider delaying non-urgent US shipments past July 24 where contractually feasible.
Summer Thin-Trading Liquidity Risk — July–August recess suppresses supply across all origins; emergency sourcing expensive Medium Finalise all Q3 2026 procurement decisions this week where possible. Summer illiquidity premium for spot supply can add €0.30–€0.50/kg to any emergency procurement.
How to Interpret This Week's Divergence
  • Spain's Uptrend Is Now Three Weeks Old: The W28 gain confirms late June's floor has developed into a genuine uptrend rather than a one-off rebound. Buyers who acted during the initial rebound have now seen pricing hold and extend higher for three consecutive weeks.
  • Tunisia's Ease Restores the Familiar Discount: Last week's historic parity was the exception, not the new normal. Tunisia's return to a discount below Spain is a reminder that origin spreads can compress and reopen quickly in thin summer markets.
  • Greece's Pause Is Lasting Longer Than Prior Cycles: Three consecutive weeks without an Italian re-entry is the longest gap of the current cycle — watch closely, as the eventual surge could be sharper than the W26 +48.30% move.
  • Italy's Silence Deepens: A third straight week with no new Oleista reading, combined with Tunisia's formal overtake of Italy in global production rankings, raises real questions about how Italian bulk repricing will unfold once trading resumes in earnest.
  • The US Tariff Deadline Is the Wildcard of the Month: With Section 122 set to expire July 24, the next two weeks carry outsized importance for any buyer with flexibility on US-bound shipment timing.
Methodology & Data Sources
The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) weekly price data is aggregated from a proprietary network of sources, including:
  • Official Benchmarks: International Olive Council (IOC) and EU DG AGRI dashboards.
  • Market Indices: Oleista.com (last update July 8, 2026 — Spain W28, Greece W28; Italy W25, Tunisia W27, Portugal W27) · IOC producer price bulletins · POOLred/Mercacei · Vesper · Certified Origins · Olive Oil Times · Wikifarmer · agrotypos.gr · IMF/FRED Global Olive Oil Price (~$6,150/tonne, latest available).
  • On-the-Ground Intelligence: Direct reports from regional agricultural cooperatives in Greece, Spain, and Tunisia.
  • Freight Logistics: Aggregated bulk tanker rate trends across key Mediterranean transit corridors.
  • FX Rates: ECB Reference Rates (July 6, 2026) and Google Finance. EUR/USD 1.1440 · EUR/GBP 0.8630 · EUR/JPY 185.50 · EUR/AUD ≈1.647.
  • Polyphenol Data: Published laboratory CoA results and peer-reviewed cultivar studies.
  • Competition & Institutional Data: IOC 123rd Council of Members and 66th Advisory Committee, Lisbon, June 29-30, 2026. Second Olive Oil World Congress, Lisbon, July 2-3, 2026. Pakistan's accession as a permanent IOC member, June 30, 2026.

Note: Prices represent wholesale "ex-works" bulk volumes. Retail shelf prices and specific premium estate pricing may vary significantly based on local certification and packaging costs. Where a source has not published a new reading this week, the most recent verified figure is carried forward and flagged accordingly.

🫒 Producer's Corner
New This Week Resources, deadlines and news curated for olive oil producers every Friday.
🏆
Competition Deadlines
This Month · Deadline July 31, 2026 Berlin GOOA Southern Hemisphere 2026
Entries for the Berlin Global Olive Oil Awards' Southern Hemisphere edition close July 31, 2026. Producers registered by the deadline receive results by September 15, 2026 — a fast turnaround well suited to autumn 2026 shelf launches.
This Week · Awards Mid-July 2026 Terraolivo IOOC — Awards Announcement
Results from Terraolivo's 2026 edition (samples closed May 15) are being announced this month. Watch for winner lists relevant to your blending and sourcing decisions this quarter.
Open Now · Deadline Sep 1, 2026 NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere 2026
Registration open for producers from Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa, with entries due September 1, 2026, linked to the IOC's Southern Hemisphere Mario Solinas edition.
💡 Mid-July is the ideal window to finalise CoA documentation, prepare Berlin GOOA and NYIOOC Southern Hemisphere samples, and review QvExtra! certification requirements for your 2025/26 production.
🔬
Lab & Certification News
Active · Italy ICQRF ICQRF Inspection Data Shows 23% Irregular Results in Vegetable-Oil Sampling
Italy's central food-fraud inspectorate reports that of roughly 8,200 vegetable-oil inspections (out of 54,000 total food inspections), nearly 15% of sampled containers showed declared-vs-actual content mismatches, with 23% of samples overall yielding irregular results. Chain-of-custody documentation and batch-level CoA remain essential for premium importers.
Effective Jan 2026 · Spain Spain's National Official Control Plan (2026-2030) Mandates Digital Traceability
Spain's stricter regulatory framework now requires SIMO and REMOA digital traceability tools to monitor bulk stock movements — relevant for any buyer sourcing Jaén or Andalusia co-op volumes this quarter.
Ongoing · EU Regulation 432/2012 EU Polyphenol Health Claim Threshold — ≥250 mg/kg
QvExtra!'s June 2026 certification keeps EU polyphenol claim documentation commercially valuable. Request CoA from your accredited lab (Intertek, SGS, ONAOO-panel approved) before the new harvest. Early-harvest Koroneiki, Arauco and high-phenolic Chetoui routinely exceed 250 mg/kg.
📦
Packaging & Equipment
Logistics · Export Trend Flexitank Adoption Accelerates Among Leading Exporters
Leading olive oil exporters are increasingly turning to food-grade flexitanks — bladder liners fitted inside standard 20' containers, carrying up to ~24,000L per trip — to reach markets in Asia, the Americas and the Middle East. Flexitanks can hold up to 30% more oil per container than traditional ISO tanks, with EVOH oxygen-barrier variants helping preserve organoleptic quality on long-haul routes. Relevant for buyers reassessing Spain-Tunisia blending logistics this week.
June–August · Peak Season Tourism Season = Direct Sales Window — Croatia, Greece, Italy
Estate direct sales peak in Croatia (Istria, Zadar), Greece (Crete, Peloponnese, Attica) and Italy (Sicily, Tuscany). Mesi Gaia's Attica estate — this week's Gold Member Spotlight — shows how family heritage storytelling can anchor a tourist-season sales push. Multilingual packaging with QR-code CoA links delivers maximum ROI.
B2B Wholesale Mediterrolio on Orderchamp & Faire
Members can list on Orderchamp (EU) and Faire (global, 700,000+ retailers). Retail buyers are planning autumn 2026 shelf launches now — submit your listings during the summer window so you are discoverable for September ordering.
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© 2026 Mediterrolio Market Intelligence. The Mediterrolio Index (MOPI) is published every Friday. All data sourced from IOC, Oleista (W28 Spain/Greece July 8, W27 Tunisia/Portugal June 29, W25 Italy stale), Mercacei (POOLred), Vesper, Certified Origins, Olive Oil Times, Wikifarmer, agrotypos.gr, IMF/FRED (~$6,150/tonne, latest available) and regional field cooperatives. FX rates: ECB July 6, 2026 and Google Finance — EUR/USD 1.1440 · EUR/GBP 0.8630 · EUR/JPY 185.50 · EUR/AUD ≈1.647.
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